The Election Commission and the 2007 elections
Flawed rule-making procedures?

The Election Commission (EC) has made the news several times recently for incorrect statements and controversial rules that it has issued.

Yesterday's Bangkok Post editorial provided a thorough overview and critique of the flawed rule-making procedures at the EC.

First, the EC wrongly accused the election watchdog P-Net of misusing public funds. In the end, the EC admitted that it was wrong.

(See photo on right of Election Commissioner Sodsri Satayatham, left, admitting to Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, coordinator of the People's Network for Elections (P-Net), right, that she was wrong in alleging P-Net had improperly accounted for 80 million baht allocated by the Election Commission to assist in poll-watching duties at last year's general election.)

Second, the EC placed severe restrictions on the use of the broadcast and print media by political parties. In the end, the EC backed down and rescinded these restrictions.

Third, last week the EC barred ex-TRT officials from all political participation, not just from running as candidates.

The ex-TRT officials who were barred from running in elections earlier this year have been playing an active role in this year's election, appearing at public events and speaking on politics, having their photos appear on election posters and newspapers, and behind the scenes, advising political candidates on how to conduct their campaign. Today's editorial raises several questions:

1. Is the EC truly independent or is it following the lead of the "coup-makers" ?

2. What is the basis for EC rules? Personal interpretation of what went wrong in past elections? Broad interpretations of the constitutional court ruling that banned the TRT from politics? Or are they just making it up as they go along?

3. How will the restrictions on political participation by ex-TRT executives be enforced? Through lawsuits? Criminal laws? Through 'Heavy fines' ? 'Jail terms' ?

4. If ex-TRT executives are forced to leave mid-sized parties by recent restrictions, will the PPP grow stronger?

Vocabulary from above:

mishaps - unfortunate event that happens to someone (but not serious)
a watchdog - an organisation that oversees and makes sure that everyone plays by the rules
backed down - stop pushing for something they hoped to achieve
rescinded - officially withdraw a law, state that it is no longer valid
behind the scenes - day to day operations and plannning, not visible to public view
making it up as they go along - done step-by-step without a master plan

Reading Questions

1. What is required for the Election Commission (EC) to avoid the problems it has been having recently, according to the author?

2. What are some of the problems with the way that the EC has been coming up with elections rules recently?

3. What were ex-TRT officials and Thaksin banned from doing last week?

4. Are these new restrictions justified? (Express your opinion)

5. Were the new restrictions transparent laws or something else?
If so, what was it? (Describe)

6. What were the EC's previous controversial and unpopular decisions?
Why were these decisions unpopular?

7. What were the new rules on political activity of ex-TRT officials likely made in response to?

8. Did the EC ban on political activity probably make the ex-TRT officials more or less popular with the electorate? Why? (Express your opinion)

9. Are ex-TRT officials a unified group?

10. Do ex-TRT officials all work for PPP?

11. How has the scattering of ex-TRT officials among many mid-sized parties helped to undermine PPP's power?

12. Why does the most recent EC rule banning ex-TRT officials from political activity actually undermine what the coup-makers hope to achieve?

Bangkok Post Article November 20, 2007

Stage-managing the election

EC's flawed approach to rule-making

It is both amazing and troubling that the Election Commission (EC) continues to dig itself into deep holes of trouble and then laboriously climb out again. Amazing, because almost any politically aware citizen could foresee the recent high-profile problems and avoid them with nothing more than common sense.

Troubling, on two accounts. First, commission members seem inclined to fire off rules first and consider them later. This is no way to run the most important national election in recent history. The other troubling aspect is that just when it is absolutely vital that the public trusts the polls, the EC appears vacillating, uncertain, and more interested in its own powers than in producing a credible, trustworthy election. This vote is not all about the EC.

stage-managing - carefully organising and controlling, rather than letting happen in a natural way
dig itself into - making a problem more severe
laboriously - taking a lot of time and effort
politically aware - know in a general sense about how politics works, so able to understand and critique complicated political events
high-profile - very visible to the public, very important
common sense - natural ability to make reasonable decisions and actions
on two accounts - for two reasons
fire off - create quickly (like firing a gun)
vital - necessary and very important
vacillating - keeping changing one's mind, can't make one final decision
credible - believable
trustworthy - able to believe and trust

Banning ex-TRT officials from all political activity as well

The latest EC kerfuffle revolves around what might be called "the rule that isn't".

Last week, under rather strange circumstances, the commission issued a list of forbidden actions by ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and the other 110 former Thai Rak Thai party executives banned from political office for five years. The list seemed to ban a lot of things that many of the 111 men and women had already been doing - speaking on politics, advising political campaigns, appearing at rallies and getting their photos on election posters and in newspapers among other things.

And then it got very strange.

a kerfuffle - commotion, lots of noisy activity and conflict
revolves around - is concerned with, focuses on
circumstances - situation surrounding an event
rallies - large political meetings to build support for a person, a sports team, or political issue

Threatening and ambiguous suggestions rather than rules

The EC did not ban these activities by the ex-Thaksin loyalists. Rather, it suggested that all 111 refrain from such common activities, and further suggested that if any of them refused to stop, the party they were working for could be banned, and a lot of people could face cheating charges that could result in jail terms and heavy fines. That word bears repeating: Could.

In the event, this has become the most talked-about and unpopular political decision since... well, since the last Election Commission decision. That would be the so-called iron rules issued last month that forbade perhaps 80% of all normal political activities. That was so unpopular that the EC had to reverse itself and declare the iron rules null and void. But the iron rules were the most unpopular political decision since the EC fought with the country's only independent election watchdog, pushing the highly experienced People's Network P-Net aside like a mangy cur.

refrain from - stop doing
iron rules - strict inflexible rules
declare rules null and void - rules no longer exist, no longer in effect
a watchdog - an organisation that oversees and makes sure that everyone plays by the rules
a mangy cur - a dog with mange (a fatal skin disease that makes the dog look horrible)

Ban on ex-TRT officials counter-productive?

The new and sudden "suggestions" that ex-Thai Rak Thai loyalists disappear apparently came after military intelligence units discovered what the rest of the country already realised - that Thaksin's proxy party, the People Power party (PPP), might in fact win the election. Those behind the Sept 19, 2006 military coup urged the EC to take action.

This was misguided, because if anything the sudden extended ban on the 111 politicians has won sympathy for them in almost all quarters. Even Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, who stands to become prime minister if he can beat the PPP, criticised the new suggestion.

apparently - have heard that it is true, but not sure
military intelligence - soldiers who gather information about enemy movements and preparations
proxy - acting for someone else
misguided - wrong (because it is based on an incorrect idea)
stands to - likely to

Mid-size swing parties dissipate PPP power

The military should be careful what it wishes. Ex-Thai Rak Thai executives had also broken up. Many were working for new parties, which almost guaranteed that the PPP could not gain a majority at the Dec 23 election. Now, effectively fired from their jobs, those men and women may regroup. Puea Pandin founder Surakiart Sathirathai and election coordinator Suranand Vejjajiva yesterday quit their party, cutting its election chances drastically. Matchima group's leader Somsak Thepsuthin said the new rules are barbed wire to keep out all small parties. In a two-party race, the PPP currently holds a wide margin over the Democrats, the ultimate nightmare for the military.

More importantly, the EC has again reduced its own reputation. The Dec 23 election is the single most important event to return Thailand to a democratic track. But polls must win the confidence of all citizens. The EC must stop waffling. It should either ban the 111 politicians, or, much better, admit another lapse in judgment and let them get back on the hustings. Then the commission must stop stage-managing. It must organise the vote, monitor the campaigns, and transparently expose and prosecute cheating. That is the EC's job. Right now, it risks the return to democracy by efforts to micro-manage what should be a free election.

should be careful what it wishes - should be more careful in setting its goals
cutting its chances - making less likely to happen
drastically - changed by a very great amount
barbed wire - wire with sharp points, to keep people and animals off land
holds a wide margin over - would win win by many votes
the ultimate nightmare - the worst situation one could imagine or dream of
return to a democratic track - return to a democratic way of engaging in politics
win the confidence of - make people believe in
waffling - not acting decisively
lapse in judgment - made an unwise decision (when they usually make good decisions)
the hustings - political campaigns and speeches before an election
get back on the hustings - return to election campaigning
stage-managing - managing all the details of what happens on stage during the performance of a play or drama
transparently - acting in a way that is clear and easy to understand
expose - make facts known
micro-manage - manage every detail of some activity (over-manage)

Answer Key:

1. What is required for the Election Commission (EC) to avoid the problems it has been having recently, according to the author?

Common sense.

2. What are some of the problems with the way that the EC has been coming up with elections rules recently?

a. EC members fire off rules first and consider them later.
b. EC undermines public trust by appearing vacillating and uncertain..
c. EC more interested in its own powers than producing a credible election.

3. What were ex-TRT officials and Thaksin banned from doing last week?

a. Speaking on politics
b. Advising political campaigns
c. Appearing at rallies
d. Getting their photos on election posters and in newspapers

4. Are these new restrictions justified? (Express your opinion)

5. Were the new restrictions transparent laws or something else?
If so, what was it? (Describe)

Something else. It was a "threatening suggestion," not a "transparent law." The EC suggested:
a. Refraining from these common activities.
b. If they did not refrain, there might be penalties.
c. Banning their political party might be a penalty.
d. Jail terms might be a penalty.
e. Heavy fines might be a penalty.

[Note: English teachers can use the recent EC "suggestion" to practice modal verbs such as: may, might, will likely, probably will,...etc]

6. What were the EC's previous controversial and unpopular decisions?
Why were these decisions unpopular?

a. Rules forbidding normal political activities such as coverage of candidates in the broadcast and print media.
b. Before that, rejecting the highly experienced and valuable election watchdog organisation P-Net.

7. What were the new rules on political activity of ex-TRT officials likely made in response to?

Apparently:
a. The coup-makers realised that the PPP might win the election.
b. The coup-makers urged the EC to take action.

8. Did the EC ban on political activity probably make the ex-TRT officials more or less popular with the electorate? Why? (Express your opinion)

Probably more popular, because it won sympathy for them among the electorate.

9. Are ex-TRT officials a unified group?

No, they have broken up from their previous grouping udner the TRT.

10. Do ex-TRT officials all work for PPP?

No, they work for new parties nowadays.

11. How has the scattering of ex-TRT officials among many mid-sized parties helped to undermine PPP's power?

If these ex-TRT officials align their mid-sized parties with the Democrat party, for instance, then the PPP will not be able to form a coalition government and will be defeated.

("Ex-Thai Rak Thai executives had also broken up. Many were working for new parties, which almost guaranteed that the PPP could not gain a majority at the Dec 23 election. Now, effectively fired from their jobs, those men and women may regroup...In a two-party race, the PPP currently holds a wide margin over the Democrats, the ultimate nightmare for the military.")

12. Why does the most recent EC rule banning ex-TRT officials from political activity actually undermine what the coup-makers hope to achieve?

If the ex-TRT officials abandon their mid-sized parties and throw their support behind the PPP as they once did with the TRT, the PPP might win.

Posted by Jon Fernquest at 06:00 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

ISOC and Thailand's Internal Security Act
Danger lurking?

Many are worried that Thailand is on the verge of a return to military dominance in the governance of the country.

Recently, several impassioned articles have argued against the proposed "Internal Security Act" the law that will empower the military and ISOC after the December elections and return to democracy.

We'll look at two of these articles today.

The first article is a translation of an important article from the Thai press. Each week the Bangkok Post's In Print section features important articles written in the Thai language media and translated into English by Bangkok Post journalist Kamol Hengkietisak.

This week's In Print featured an editorial against the Internal Security Act from the Thai language daily Matichon written by Dr. Weng Tochirakarn.

The second article is senator Jon Ungphakorn's discussion of the proposed law in his weekly Straight to the Point column for the Bangkok Post. Extracts from his critical assessment are included below.

Thirdly, Chang Noi's analysis of the original bill also provides essential background information. Read the original bill and the revision to make the bill more palatable.

on the verge of - about to happen, will happen shortly
impassioned - with great emotion
ISOC - Internal Security Operations Command

Jon Ungphakorn's analysis of the ISOC bill

Two weeks ago Jon Ungphakorn discussed the ISOC bill in his weekly "Straight to the Point" column that appears in the Bangkok Post every Wednesday (See Bangkok Post, Opinion and Analysis, 24-10-2007). He pointed out that Thailand already has two very powerful security laws in place. First, there is the martial law that continues to exist months after the coup in many provinces around the country:

"First we have Martial Law, dating back to 1914. At present, 27 of Thailand's 76 provinces are subject to martial law, which gives the military many special powers over the civilian population, such as powers to search homes, detain suspects for up to seven days, ban public gatherings, impose curfews, censor publications and restrict travel. Civilians charged with crimes relating to national security face trial by military court, with no rights of appeal."

"Once we return to some form of democratic rule, however, it is unlikely that martial law will still remain in force on this scale."

Then then there is the security law that Thaksin passed to deal with the southern insurgency:

"In 2005, amid strong opposition from many quarters, including the Lawyers' Association, the Thaksin Shinawatra government introduced the emergency decree on "Public Administration in Emergency Situations" which became permanent after it received parliamentary approval."

"This law which is currently being applied to the three southern border provinces most affected by chronic violence, allows the government to declare a state of emergency in designated areas, thereby giving the prime minister and officials under his/her command wide-ranging special powers to restore order."

"These include powers to detain suspects, ban public gatherings, censor media, intercept communications, impose curfews, restrict travel, ban individuals from entering or leaving designated areas and order individuals to report to officials for interrogation or for mandatory re-education."

"In fact, under this law the prime minister has the power to order officials to carry out any "necessary" action, even the killing of suspects, and officials who carry out such orders in good faith are given immunity from prosecution."

With powerful security laws aleady in place, he raises the next logical question: why is another security law needed now?

"The only logical explanation is that certain sections of the military, particularly those directly involved in last year's coup, want to have control of special powers, similar to those allowed under the martial law and Public Administration in Emergency Situations Act, in order to prevent attempts by pro-Thaksin political groups to regain political power, even by legitimate democratic means.

Under the present draft, while the prime minister will be the nominal director of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), the real power will likely reside with the Army chief who will serve as deputy director of Isoc, and have hands-on command of the organisation.

Vocabulary from above:

detain - keep locked up, in jail
suspects - people the police believe might have broken the law
ban public gatherings - people are not allowed to meet in public places for protests
impose curfews - laws requiring people to be in their houses after a certain hour at night
censor media - restricting what newspapers and tv news can say
intercept communications - monitor private phone conversations and email to gather information
chronic - lasting for a long period of time
state of emergency -
designated areas - specified areas
interrogation - when the police ask people questions in their investigation of a crime
mandatory - required
re-education - political education
immunity - protection
immunity from prosecution - cannot be tried for a crime
legitimate - acceptable
hands-on - involved in day to day operations

Reading Questions

1. What laws of western countries does the Internal Secutiry Act seem to be modeled upon?

2. What are the differences between the internal security threats that the US and Britain face and those faced by Thailand? (Compare and express your opinion)

3. Under what conditions can citizen's fundamental rights be trespassed under western security laws?

4. How are politicians held accountable to the public for enforcing the western security laws?

5. Is this the first time a government in Thailand has tried to pass such a security law?

6. What prevented the passage of such a security law in the past?

7. Has the power of ISOC grown or diminished in recent times? How and why?

8. How did the military and ISOC's role change after the 2006 coup?

9. How will the Internal Security Act change the distribution of power in Thailand, according to Dr. Weng?

10. What does Dr. Weng recommend as the most appropriate way to deal with this bill?

Bangkok Post Article November 17, 2007

Internal Security Act for a military state?

The Internal Security Bill passed its first reading in the National Legislative Assembly on November 8 by an overwhelming 101 to 20 vote, noted Dr Weng Tochirakarn, a Matichon writer.

The Internal Security Bill seems to emulate the US' Homeland Security Act and Britain's Internal Security Law, he noted. However, the two countries face different threats than those faced by Thailand. The 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center was the catalyst for the act in the US, while the United Kingdom faced subway bombings. The attacks left hundreds of dead and injured. Even right now, both countries are threatened by potential acts of international terrorism practically everyday.

But Thailand has not faced international terrorist attacks nor does it face threats of them. The unrest in the three deep South provinces, the political demonstrations, and divisions in the country are home grown and do not pose grave security threats.

first reading - laws being considered by Thai parliament are read and voted on three times before coming law
by an overwhelming - complete victory, almost everyone voted for it
emulate - use as a model
Homeland Security Act (HSA) - the post-9/11 law to deal with terrorism in US (See Wikipedia)
Internal Security Law (Britain) - the post-9/11 law to deal with terrorism in Great Britain
a catalyst - initiator of change, a chemical that starts a chemical reaction
unrest - public protests (and other expressions of political discontent)
home grown - made at home, originating in the country, not coming from outside
pose a threat - are a threat
grave - very serious
security threats - ways that a place or person lacks safety, is unprotected

Lack of accountability under the new act

Dr Weng noted that in the two Western countries, the security law is enforced only after there is first a terrorist attack or an emergency situation. Only then can citizens' fundamental rights be trespassed upon. Yet, these security law enforcers come from a civilian government, elected by the people directly - and not by any general or group of military brass.

This means that the people can monitor the politicians who enforce the security law. If they think the law is reasonably enforced, the incumbents will not be punished in the next election and will be allowed to return to power. This is not the case with the Thai version of the Internal Security Act. The law's enforcers can abuse power and the people cannot punish them through the ballot box. There have been several attempts by previous governments including the Chuan, Chavalit and Thaksin regimes to submit a similar law to parliament, but each time, the parliament directly elected by the people has not seen the merit of passing a law that must come at the expense of the people's fundamental rights. They have rejected the proposal every time.

trespassed - violated, abused (unwarranted infringement)
military brass - high ranking military officers
monitor - watch and evaluate activity
enforce a law - making sure that people who break the law are punished
incumbents - people who currently hold elected office seeking re-election
x comes at the expense of y - y is the cost of benefit x

Recent resurgence of ISOC

Meanwhile, the successive civilian governments have weakened the political role of the military and the Internal Security Operation Command (Isoc). Isoc was nearly dissolved during Thaksin's administration and it could be deemed that Thailand was no longer dominated by the military.

Immediately after the military staged the coup last year, the coup leader used his power to change the Isoc chief from a prime minister, to an army chief instead. Not only were the Isoc's power and personnel expanded tremendously. all 20 ministries were put under Isoc's command.

The military budget was raised from 115 billion baht in the 2007 budget year to 153 billion baht in 2008. Most of the increases are hidden in secret budgets or channelled through Isoc. In short, Isoc again became powerful in Thailand, allowing the military state to again dominate Thai society in just about every conceivable way.

The most glaring example of this was the coup leaders' move to force the Thai people to accept the B.E. 2550 Constitution in the national referendum. This was possible due to the commands from the Council for National Security. However, the CNS' power is temporary and will soon expire with the arrival of a new civilian government next year.

successive - several each following the previous, one after another
civilian - non-military, not soldiers
dissolved - when an organisation is officially ended and broken up
deemed that - could be judged that
channelled through - sent through
glaring example - a very obvious example
referendum - when a government asks the people to vote on policy
expire - end

Resurgence of a military state

To make sure that the "military state" continues to coexist with Thai society, the coup leaders are pushing the NLA to pass the Internal Security Bill. To do so would mean the military state would become a permanent fixture of Thai society.

No matter how many general elections are held or how many constitutions are promulgated in the future, as long as this act exists, the power will rest with the military oligarchy, asserts Dr Weng.

coexist with - exist at the same time
become a permanent ficture of - become a permanent part of (not just temporary)
promulgate a constitution - when a constitution is made official
an oligarchy -

Counting from November 8, when the NLA passed the first reading to the Dec 23 general election date, there are only 45 days. Why didn't the NLA shelve the Internal Security Act and let the coming parliament elected by the people decide the fate of a bill which aims to create a military state and greatly trample upon the people's fundamental rights?

Why did the NLA overwhelmingly pass the bill in the first reading and why is there a likely chance that it will again pass the final reading before the general election as well? The only explanation is that the coup leaders want to create a military state permanently in Thai society and that the appointed NLA is a slave institution serving the military dictatorship, concluded Dr Weng.

shelve - remove from consideration (and possibility of becoming a law)
decide the fate of - decide the future of
trample upon - treat without respect (walk upon)
overwhelmingly - complete victory, almost everyone voted for it
pass the bill - vote to make the bill a law

Answer Key:

1. What laws of western countries does the Internal Secutiry Act seem to be modeled upon?

a. The Homeland Security Act (US)
b. Internal Security Law (Britain)

2. What are the differences between the internal security threats that the US and Britain face and those faced by Thailand? (Compare and express your opinion)

a. The US and Britain face terrorist attacks that leave hundreds dead and injured.
b. Thailand faces unrest restricted to three provinces in the deep south.
c. Thailand faces political demonstrations and divisions after the coup.
d. The security threats that the US and Britain face are severe.
e. The security threats that Thailand faces are not severe.

3. Under what conditions can citizen's fundamental rights be trespassed under western security laws?

When there is a terrorist attack or an emergency situation.

4. How are politicians held accountable to the public for enforcing the western security laws?

Security law enforcers are part of the civilian (non-military) government, so elections can be used to express disatisfaction with the way security laws have been enforced. Enforcers can effectively be punished with the ballot box.

5. Is this the first time a government in Thailand has tried to pass such a security law?

No, there have been several attempts by previous governments (Chuan, Chavalit and Thaksin).

6. What prevented the passage of such a security law in the past?

A parliament elected by the people has always rejected such a law.

("...each time, the parliament directly elected by the people has not seen the merit of passing a law that must come at the expense of the people's fundamental rights. They have rejected the proposal every time.")

7. Has the power of ISOC grown or diminished in recent times? How and why?

Diminished, because successive elected civilian governments expressing the wishes of the people have weakened the political role of the military. ISOC was almost completely eliminated during Thaksin's administration.

8. How did the military and ISOC's role change after the 2006 coup?

Both became more important:
a. The ISOC chief changed from the Prime Minister to the army chief.
b. ISOC's power was expanded.
c. ISOC's personnel was expanded.
d. All 20 ministries were put under ISOC's command.
e. The military budget was increased from 115 to 153 billion.
f. The military budget is hidden in secret budgets or channeled through ISOC.

9. How will the Internal Security Act change the distribution of power in Thailand, according to Dr. Weng?

a. Elections and constitutions will be irrelevant.
b. Real power will reside in the military oligarchy.

10. What does Dr. Weng recommend as the most appropriate way to deal with this bill?

Shelve the bill and let the elected government soon to be in power deal with it.

Posted by Jon Fernquest at 06:00 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Thitinan Pongsudhirak on the outlook
for post-coup election 2007

An update on the current political situation during the lead up to Thailand's post-coup elections by Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University is featured in today's article.

The metaphor of a boxing match is used throughout today's article. Samak uses this very metaphor himself in declining Abhisit's invitation to debate in today's Bangkok Post:

"I am not desperate. I know how to speak and think, but the person who challenged me does not know about this fighting business. It would be pointless."

The Democrat party has found it difficult to expand its electoral bases beyond the South and Bangkok. Mid-sized "swing parties" will likely determine whether it is the Democrats or the PPP that forms a coalition government. Formation of a post-election government may well be slowed down by election re-runs. This overview provides rich details about how the elections are progressing as well as many new vocabulary items to learn.

Chachoengsao election case study

The day-to-day details of the election in Chachoengsao are being documented by political scientist Michael Nelson as part of a project covering 14 provinces conducted by King Prajadhipok’s Institute (KPI).

Michael Nelson's latest post on candidate registration to the New Mandala blog at Australia National Unviersity (ANU) documents the complex family ties and loyalties that generate networks of loyal followers around a politician.

Michael H. Nelson is a visiting scholar at the Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand, and a senior research associate in Southeast Asian Studies at the University of Passau, Germany. (See previous KPI article on draft constitution review).

lead up to - period of time before an event happens
metaphor - creative way of describing something by pointing out its similarities with something else
declining an invitation - not accepting an invitation
desperate - willing to do anything to get out of a bad situation
pointless - useless, a waste of time
swing parties - parties that can determine success or failure by which way they "swing," by which side they side with
coalition - a government combining people from two or more parties
election re-runs - doing the election again, voting again

Reading Questions

1. What event marks the official start of the election campaign?

2. When is the registration period for MP candidates?

3. What are the two types of MPs being elected?

4. What is the difference between the two kinds of MPs?
(Outside research required)

5. How many MP positions are being contested in the election?

6. What two major parties are contending in the election?

7. What are the names of the smaller ("mid-sized") parties that will become important if a likely coalition government needs to be formed?

8. Why are the mid-sized parties important?

9. What is the major party called that, despite garnering large amounts of votes, is not included in the government?

10. Who is likely to become the opposition party after the next election? Why?

11. What regions form the base of the Democrat party?

12. What are the two essential elements of the PPP's campaign strategy?

13. Who is more appealing as a candidate Samak or Abhisit? Why?
(Express your opinion)

14. Which is currently the most promising mid-sized party? Why?

15. Who is Suwit Khunkitti and what makes him promising as a politician?

16. What is the natural ally for the Puea Pandin party? Why?

17. Who was Banharn's Chart Thai allied with during the Thaksin years?

18. What is likely to be more important in the end for mid-sized parties: old TRT ties or being part of a coalition government?

19. Will retired coup-maker Sonthi enter the election as a candidate?

20. Do coup-maker's usually enter elections?

21. What recent actions by the Election Commission seem to be designed to neutralise the strength of the PPP?

22. Why is a quick election and formation of government unlikely after the December 2007 elections?

Bangkok Post Article November 13, 2007

Coalition govt a foregone conclusion?

MP seats being contested in the election

Thailand's election campaign has officially started, with the registration period for party-list and constituency candidates to be completed by Nov 16.

The People Power party (PPP) - successor of the formerly unstoppable but dissolved Thai Rak Thai party of ousted and self-exiled prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra - has fielded a strong nationwide line-up for both the 80 party-list and 400 constituency MPs up for grabs on Dec 23.

So has its arch-nemesis, the Democrat party (DP).

The rest of the contestants are dominated by mid-sized parties, featuring Puea Pandin, Ruamjaithai Chart Pattana, Matchimathipataya and Chart Thai.

a foregone conclusion - everyone knows it will happen
dissolved - break up
fielded a line-up - the players of a sports team playing in a game (on the sports "field")
party-list MP seats - seats that are won in proportion to the total votes received by parties
constituency - the area that an MP is elected from and represents
up for grabs - available to be taken
nemesis - person or thing that threatens to harm you
arch-... - an extreme example of...

Electoral fix in the making

The only known outcome thus far is that the DP and PPP are in opposite corners, having declared that they will not form a coalition government together. This means that the mid-sized parties will be king-maker. The PPP's resilience and favourable electoral prospects going forward indicate a looming crisis.

In the event the PPP comes out on top, it will have the right to form a government - an outcome that is unacceptable to the military which staged the coup in September 2006. No matter how the PPP fares on election day, the likelihood is that it will end up on the opposition benches. The military and interim government of Prime Minster Surayud Chulanont will do everything in its power to ensure a non-PPP government.

The other non-PPP parties will likely oblige. An electoral fix thus appears to be in the making in the run-up to polling day.

in opposite corners - the two fighters in opposite corners of a boxing ring
coalition government - a government combining two or more parties
king-maker - person whose support is essential to gain power
resilience - strength, ability to renew fighting after problems
prospects - probability of success
looming - something bad is about to happen
end up on the opposition benches -
oblige - do what someone wants them to do
a fix - an arrangement to guarantee a certain result (for example, the boxing match was fixed by paying one boxer to lose)
in the making - something being planned for the near future
in the run-up to - during the period before the election
polling day - election day

Comparing Samak and Abhisit as candidates

While the DP has been utterly unable to expand its electoral bases beyond the South and Bangkok, with a few pockets in the Central and Northeast regions, the PPP will likely produce a formidable showing in the populous Northeast and the North and respectable results in the Central region and Bangkok.

Mr Samak Sundaravej, the PPP leader, has shrewdly turned the election into a verdict on the coup, campaigning on an anti-coup stance on top of the proven populist platform under Thai Rak Thai.

The PPP's chief drawback is that the 72-year-old, "old-style" Mr Samak is less appealing as a national leader, than the 43-year-old, Oxford-educated Mr Abhisit Vejjajiva, the DP's leader.

Leadership appeal in the context of international credibility will be a crucial factor, and will prompt the post-election endgame to favour Mr Abhisit as prime minister.

An implicit fix to keep the PPP out of government is viable because Mr Abhisit is more credible than Mr Samak, even though the PPP may well edge out the DP at the polls.

Apart from his lack of credentials abroad, Mr Samak is also a divisive figure at home, having antagonised the press with his trademark acerbic comments. Moreover, Mr Samak lacks the policy expertise and experience in running a TRT-based populist platform.

pockets - small areas within a much larger area
formidable - very difficult to beat
a showing - a performance in a competition (for example, make a good showing in a horse race)
shrewdly - with cunning and skill
verdict on - when a judge in a court makes a decision on a legfal case
stance - viewpoint, opinion about
chief - main, most important
drawback - problem (that makes it less attractive option)
appealing - attractive
credibility - believability
endgame - the end of a chess game (with special and exacting tactics required)
implicit - not stated, must be inferred or guessed
viable - possible to succeed
edge out - win by a small amount
at the polls - during voting
lack of credentials - lack of formal qualifications
divisive - creating disharmony, disagreement, and arguments
antagonised - make angry
acerbic comments - sharp, critical, direct

Pressure on mid-sized parties to ditch PPP

The mid-sized parties are led by Puea Pandin. Its leader and former Thai Rak Thai stalwart, Suwit Khunkitti, also has a solid policy background. With momentum on its side, Puea Pandin is in position to be the third largest party after the polls and potentially to be the lead king-maker. Its natural partner would be the PPP, as they are cut from the same Thai Rak Thai cloth.

However, the military and interim government, along with related government agencies, will likely exert immense pressure on Puea Pandin to ditch PPP in favour of the DP.

The other mid-sized parties will also face similar pressure. For all of them, especially Chart Thai which used to be part of the opposition with the DP, getting a piece of the pie in the coalition government will likely outweigh old ties with Mr Thaksin and the PPP.

a stalwart - a loyal, steady, and reliable supporter or worker
momentum - energy moving forwards (that keeps one moving forwards)
lead - most important, ranked number one
cut from the same cloth - come from the same place, have the same origins
exert - make great effort
immense - great
pressure - persuasion, force
ditch - abandon, throw away
getting a piece of the pie - getting a share or part of the benefits gained
outweigh - is more important than

Possible techniques for fixing an election

The candidate registration period suggests General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, the retired coup-maker and current deputy prime minister in charge of preventing electoral fraud, will not contest the polls, a significant outcome that defies conventional wisdom of his inevitable entry into electoral politics.

With martial law still in place in many North and Northeast provinces that constitute the PPP's voter bases, Gen Sonthi will see to it that the deck is stacked against Mr Samak's party. He will be assisted by the Election Commission, which has come out with petty and intrusive regulations on campaigning, designed to neutralise the PPP's strength.

The Election Commission is likely to issue a host of yellow and red cards in PPP-dominated constituencies, requiring re-runs or dismissing winning candidates altogether on poll fraud charges.")

Apart from an implicit fix in the making, another certain outcome is a messy poll that could drag on for many weeks with constituency re-runs. If these exceed 5% of the total number of 480 MPs, the Lower House cannot convene, as stipulated in the new constitution.

The interim government may still be in office well into the first quarter of 2008.

It is thus advisable not to expect a clean poll and an expeditious formation of a new government.

fraud - the crime of deceiving another for gain
defies conventional wisdom - is the opposite of what most people normally think
martial law - military law enforced by soldiers in military courts
deck is stacked against - failure is likely (like gambling with a "deck" of playing cards that isn't fair)
petty - concerned about small and unimportant things, unkind
intrusive - invades and disturb's the privacy of someone
neutralise -
yellow and red cards - penalty cards in football to warn or throw out of the game
constituencies - well-defined local areas that elect one or two MPs
re-runs - doing the election again
charges - accused of breaking the law
drag on - continue for a long time
convene - start
stipulated - a condition stated clearly, that something must be done is stated
a clean poll - an election that goes smoothly without problems
expeditious - efficient, quick

The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

Answer Key:

1. What event marks the official start of the election campaign?

The beginning of the registration period for candidates.

2. When is the registration period for MP candidates?

November 12th to 16th.

3. What are the two types of MPs being elected?

a. Constituency.
b. Party list.

4. What is the difference between the two kinds of MPs?
(Outside research required)

5. How many MP positions are being contested in the election?

480 in total.
400 constituency MPs
60 party list MPs.

6. What two major parties are contending in the election?

a. The Democrat Party (DP).
b. The Phalang Prachachon Party [People Power Party] (PPP).

7. What are the names of the smaller ("mid-sized") parties that will become important if a likely coalition government needs to be formed?

a. Puea Pandin
b. Ruamjaithai Chart Pattana
c. Matchimathipataya
d. Chart Thai

8. Why are the mid-sized parties important?

Since the DP and the PPP have announced that they won't form a coalition government together, either the DP or the PPP, whichever party wins, may have to form a coalition government with mid-sized parties, making them "king makers."

9. What is the major party called that, despite garnering large amounts of votes, is not included in the government?

It is called the "opposition party" ("opposition benches"). The Democrat party filled this role during the Thaksin administration.

10. Who is likely to become the opposition party after the next election? Why?

The PPP is likely to become the opposition party after the next election because the military that staged the 2006 coup will find some way to ensure an non-PPP government ("an electoral fix").

11. What regions form the base of the Democrat party?

a. The South.
b. Bangkok.

12. What are the two essential elements of the PPP's campaign strategy?

a. An anti-coup stance.
b. Thai Rak Thai's populist policy platform.

13. Who is more appealing as a candidate Samak or Abhisit? Why?
(Express your opinion)

The article clearly indicates that Abhisit is more appealing listing the following reasons:

a. Samak is old (72) and Abhisit is young (72).
b. Samak is an "old-style" politician and Abhisit is a "new-style" politician.
c. Abhisit is Oxford educated. Samak "lacks credentials" abroad.
d. Abhisit has more leadership appeal.
e. Abhisit would have more international credibility.
f. Samak is a divisive figure domestically.
g. Samak antagonises the press.
h. Samak lacks policy expertise in running TRT populist policies.

14. Which is currently the most promising mid-sized party? Why?

The Puea Pandin party.

15. Who is Suwit Khunkitti and what makes him promising as a politician?

a. Suwit is the head of the Puea Pandin party.
b. He is a promising politician because he has a solid policy background.

16. What is the natural ally for the Puea Pandin party? Why?

Samak's PPP is the natural ally for Puea Pandin because they are both "cut from the same Thai Rak Thai cloth."

17. Who was Banharn's Chart Thai allied with during the Thaksin years?

Chart Thai was allied with the Democrat Party in opposition to the TRT.

18. What is likely to be more important in the end for mid-sized parties: old TRT ties or being part of a coalition government?

Being part of a coalition government with consequent power and resources.

19. Will retired coup-maker Sonthi enter the election as a candidate?

No.

20. Do coup-maker's usually enter elections?

Yes, they usually do.

("General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, the retired coup-maker...will not contest the polls, a significant outcome that defies conventional wisdom of his inevitable entry into electoral politics.")

21. What recent actions by the Election Commission seem to be designed to neutralise the strength of the PPP?

The Election Commission has issued "petty and intrusive regulations on campaigning" and these regulations can be used to "issue a host of yellow and red cards in PPP-dominated constituencies, requiring re-runs or dismissing winning candidates altogether on poll fraud charges."

22. Why is a quick election and formation of government unlikely after the December 2007 elections?

a. The election could drag on for weeks with contituency re-runs.
b. If constituency re-runs exceed 5% the Lower House cannot convene.

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Samak up close and personal
Is rudeness a vote-getter?

Speaking politely and acting like a gentleman may not be necessary to get votes. Today's article seems to be a case study in how not to deal with the media, or is it?

An article in the Post Today on Friday ran a transcript that caught Samak Sundaravej (party boss of the PPP and Thaksin's proxy in Thailand) in the act of bullying and harassing reporters. Samak avoided the difficult questions that reporters posed to him in a number of ways, none of them polite:

a. I have no duty to explain.
b. Were you hired by somebody?
c. I don't need to answer this question.
d. Don't ask me like I'm in court.
e. Don't pester me.
f. Why do you ask?
g. What people [want to know] ? Show me the list.
h. ...this is not a matter to be talked about.
i. ...anybody who wants to dig into this matter has ill intentions toward the PPP.
j. The matter is over.
k. Why keep pestering me?
l. Which paper you work for? Tell me.

Some natural questions:

1. Why can Samak get away with being rude?
2. Do some voters like rudeness and roughness?
3. Is roughness seen as a sign of strength and manliness by some?
4. Do some voters favour a rough style over Abhisit's more refined, polite, and gentlemanly approach?

"Showing grace under fire" or not "losing your cool" has become increasingly important in public life. Former president Clinton set a new standard in the United States for not losing his cool under pressure. Will politicians ever be held to account for losing their cool and being rude?

Of course, the bigger issue is what contempt for the media could mean after an election victory when the candidate has power and can actively suppress the media and freedom of speech as Thaksin did. This is the issue addressed at the very beginning of today's article.

up close and personal - a phrase commonly used in the title of interviews, indicates that you're going to learn what a person is really like personally
rude - not polite
proxy - acting for someone else
transcript - writing down in words what people say
bullying - pushing people around, forcing them to do what you want
harassing - causing trouble for someone else, attacking verbally or causing problems
pester - annoy, cause trouble for
ill intentions - want to harm
get away with - do without negative consequences
refined - very polite, good manners, good taste
showing grace - behaving in a polite and dignified way, even when they are upset and angry
under fire - being attacked verbally
losing your cool - getting angry suddenly, losing control of your temper
held to account for - accepting criticism and punishment for something you did wrong

Reading Questions

1. What did Thaksin mean in his famous remark: "The UN is not my father!"

2. In what situation did he make this remark?

3. What was Thaksin's attitude towards the media during his administration?

4. How did Thaksin express contempt towards the media?

5. How does Samak compare to Thaksin in his contempt for the media?

6. What are some of the rude ways that Samak avoids media questions? (Make a list)

7. What was Samak's most offensive remark to a reporter during the press conference?

8. Why was the remark offensive?

9. What is a reporter's job?

10. What appropriate response can a politician (or other public figure) make to a tough question that he or she does not want to answer?

Bangkok Post Article Monday November 12, 2007

If questions are too tough, go home

The remark will be long remembered: "The UN is not my father!" It came from the mouth of then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who appeared annoyed by reporters who questioned him persistently about a United Nations report about alleged human rights abuses during his regime.

The ex-prime minister was known not to be on good terms with the media, especially the print media which he often treated with contempt. And when he was pestered with questions not to his liking he sometimes lost his cool and shot back, demanding to know which publications they represented.

It was widely known Thaksin's dislike of the media, in particular media critical of his administration, was not limited to harsh words for reporters. Advertising by long-time clients suddenly disappeared. In serious cases, multi-million-baht defamation lawsuits were lodged against media critics.

a remark - a comment, what someone says about something
persistently - continually, without stopping
contempt - without respect
pestered - annoyed, irritated, troubled, made life difficult
lost his cool - get angry
shot back - answer quickly and a little rudely
defamation - say something that damages another person's reputation
lawsuits - seek legal action against someone
lodged against - make against

Contempt for the media: A Thaksin legacy

But Thaksin's contempt for the media pales when compared to his heir, Samak Sundaravej, leader of the Thai Rak Thai's incarnation, the People Power party (PPP). By design or coincidence, his choice of Samak to pursue his unfinished legacy couldn't be more appropriate.

Both Thaksin and Samak have at least one thing in common - they dislike the media. But while Thaksin is more restrained, Samak does not hesitate to show hostility when a reporter's questions rub him the wrong way.

contempt for - have no respect for, look down on, treat rudely
pales when compared to - from "pales in comparison" which means "is not very good when compared to"
an heir - someone who receives
incarnation - one appearance among many repeated appearances
legacy - what someone leaves behind for others after they die or after they leave a position
restrained - in control (anger inside perhaps, but does not show)
does not hesitate - does quickly without caution
hostility - display of anger
rub him the wrong way - does not like

Samak's Conversation with Reporters

Following are excerpts of a conversation between Samak and several reporters at the PPP head office on Thursday. (The full text was in Post Today's Friday edition.)

Siam Rath reporter: There was a report that Khunying Sudarat [Keyuraphan] and Newin [Chidchob] were involved in preparing the list [of party-list candidates]. Is it true?

Samak: I have no duty to explain. Were you hired by somebody?

Reporter: No sir.

Samak: If no, [I] don't need to answer this question.

Reporter: No answer means you're not denying it, correct?

Samak: Don't ask me like I am in court. Don't pester me. Why do you ask?

Reporter: The people want to know, sir.

Samak: What people? Show me the list. I don't mind if you want to know, but this is not a matter to be talked about. [I] just said anybody who wants to dig into this matter has ill intentions toward the PPP. The matter is over. Why keep pestering me?

Reporter: This is news.

Samak: Which paper you work for? Tell me.

Reporter: Does it matter?

Samak: It does.

excerpts - small parts of a larger text
pester - annoy, cause trouble for
dig into this matter - look and investigate in more detail
ill intentions - do not want to succeed, want to fail

Insulting reporters

Samak's most offensive remark was a question about whether the reporter had immoral sex the previous night.

The above text shows there was nothing the Siam Rath reporter said to offend the PPP leader. Instead, he appeared humble and showed Samak respect by addressing him as "sir".

Samak's conduct was different, especially his intrusion into the reporter's private life. What if the reporter asked Samak if a lack of sex the previous night had led him to vent his frustration on the reporter?

offensive remark - a rude and upsetting comment or statement
humble - not acting like you are better than other people
show respect - expressing politeness and honour towards someone
intrusion - disturbing privacy, entering a private place or conversation
private life - life with family and friends, not to be viewed by other people
vent his frustration on - expressing anger by being rude to an completely innocent and irrelevant person

A reporter's job is to ask tough questions

Samak also ridiculed the other reporters, saying that at their age their experience was no match for his.

To quote Samak: "Again, another one. Do you want to trap me? No way. Count your ages first. How old are the three of you? What is your duty? I have my duty. Is your duty to dig [into the matter] to destroy the party? Answer my question!"

But sir, age alone does not reflect maturity. In this case, I am confident the three reporters are all more mature than Samak even if the latter is over 70 and has gone through many ups and downs in his political career. And imagine, the man aspires to become the next prime minister.

A reporter's job is to ask questions, sometimes tough questions. If Samak does not like the questions, he can simply ignore them or say he doesn't want to answer them. He can just walk away if pestered by reporters. I recommend Samak and the PPP scrap all future press conferences if they cannot stand tough questions. If the going gets too tough, they can pack up and go home.

ridiculed - insult, embarass, shame
no match for - not equal to, not as great as
reflect - show
maturity - completely developed mentally and emotionally, behave in a responsible way
aspires to become - has a desire to become something higher
scrap - eliminate, put an end to
press conferences - a meeting when an important public figure talks to reporters and the media
cannot stand - cannot endure, cannot put up with
going gets too tough - when many problems arise, when a situation becomes difficult to deal with
pack up - put your clothes in your suitcase before you leave the hotel

Veera Prateepchaikul is Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Post Publishing Co Ltd.

Answer Key:

1. What did Thaksin mean in his famous remark: "The UN is not my father!"

It means "the UN will not tell me what to do like my father tells me what to do."

2. In what situation did he make this remark?

When he was being questioned by reporters about human rights abuses.

3. What was Thaksin's attitude towards the media during his administration?

a. Not on good terms with the media.
b. Treated media with contempt.

4. How did Thaksin express contempt towards the media?

a. Lost his cool under intense questioning.
b. Shot back at reporters.
c. Demanded to know which publication reporters worked for.
d. Had harsh words for reporters.
e. Convinced long-term clients to abandon a publication as punishment.
f. Lodged multi-million baht defamation against media critics.

5. How does Samak compare to Thaksin in his contempt for the media?

a. Samak has much more contempt for the media than Thaksin did.
b. Samak does not hesitate to show hostility at questions he does not like.

("But Thaksin's contempt for the media pales when compared to his heir, Samak Sundaravej, leader of the Thai Rak Thai's incarnation, the People Power party (PPP).")

6. What are some of the rude ways that Samak avoids media questions? (Make a list)

a. I have no duty to explain.
b. Were you hired by somebody?
c. I don't need to answer this question.
d. Don't ask me like I'm in court,
e. Don't pester me.
f. Why do you ask?
g. What people [want to know] ? Show me the list.
h. ...this is not a matter to be talked about.
i. ...anybody who wants to dig into this matter has ill intentions toward the PPP.
j. The matter is over.
k. Why keep pestering me?
l. Which paper you work for? Tell me.

7. What was Samak's most offensive remark to a reporter during the press conference?

An irrelevant question about whether they had immoral sex last night.
The only purpose of the question being to insult the reporter.

8. Why was the remark offensive?

It was offensive because it intruded into the reporters private life which was none of Samak's business and had nothing to do with the questions that the reporter was asking.

9. What is a reporter's job?

To ask questions, sometimes tough questions.

10. What appropriate response can a politician (or other public figure) make to a tough question that he or she does not want to answer?

a. Ignore the question.
b. Say he doesn't want to answer the question.
c. Just walk away.

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