More women than men
and fewer babies in Thailand

Women outnumber men in Thailand by one million.

This "gender gap" in Thailand's population is growing larger every year. In 1990 there were only 420,000 more women than men.

Starting at birth, the population of men is slightly higher than the population of women in Thailand, but in every age group men die faster than women die (higher mortality rate). Why?

Accidents and AIDS deaths are the main reasons. Up until age 27 there are on average more men than women in Thai society. After this age, there are more women than men.

Professor Pramote Prasartkul of the Institute of Population and Social Research at Mahidol University discussed these issues at a recent forum on demography in Thailand.

Thailand's Decreasing Population

Since 2000 Thailand has been classified as a low-fertility country among all the countries of Asia. Thailand's population is now growing so slow that it does not replace itself.

The number of children that a couple has is called the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Since each couple consists of two people, a husband and a wife, each couple needs to have two children to replace themselves. Thailand's TFR is currently 1.5 which means that each couple in Thailand on average has 1.5 children. Thailand's TFR of 1.5 children is below the replacement TFR of 2 children (sub-replacement fertility, below-replacement fertility).

In the near future Thailand's TFR may be down to as low as 1.1 children. Increasingly couples to have only one, two, or even no children. Later marriage is one factor driving this trend.

Among women there is also a trend towards celibacy. From 1970 to 1990 the number of single women in Thailand has increased from 21% to 30% (between ages 15 and 54). This is projected to rise to 35% in the near future.

The current low birth rates in Thailand is quite a change from the 1960s when Thai women had an average of six children.

Family Planning Policy in Thailand

Thailand's national family planning policy is currently anti-natal which means its discourages people having more children. This policy could change to a pro-natal policy that encourages people to have more chidren in the near future.

"People who are ready to have and take care of children" will be encouraged to have children by incentives such as additional income tax reductions.

A greying population in which a higher percentage is older is a problem that many countries are having to deal with. Countries as a whole have to worry who will take care of them in their old age, just as individual families worry about this problem.

Vocabulary:

X outnumbers Y - there is more X than Y  มีจำนวนมากกว่า

a gender gap - a large difference between the number of men and women ช่องว่างระหว่างจำนวนประชากรเพศหญิงและชาย

the mortality rate - how many deaths per อัตราการตาย

demography - the study of population levels using statistics (See Wikipedia)  การศึกษาประชากร

fertility, fertility rate - the number of children born in a family or country (See Wikipedia and list of countries by fertility rate) อัตราการเกิด

sub-replacement fertility - a total fertility rate that is not high enough to replace an area's population  อัตราการเกิดต่ำกว่าจำนวนประชากรที่จะต้องล้มตายในอนาคต  หมายถึง  ประเทศไทยมีค่าเฉลี่ยของเด็กที่เกิดต่อครอบครัว 1.5 คน ในขณะที่ครอบครัวหนึ่งมีพ่อ-แม่ รวม 2 คน จึงทำให้ในอนาคตจะมีแนวโน้มประชากรน้อยกว่าปัจจุบัน

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a population - the average number of children born to a woman in a population, exact definition: "the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if (1) she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and (2) she were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life. It is obtained by summing the single-year age-specific rates at a given time" (See Wikipedia)  อัตราการเกิดของทารกต่อประชากรหญิงทั้งหมดที่สามารถมีลูกได้

a factor - one of the things that has an effect on an event ปัจจัยที่เป็นตัวกำหนด

a trend - a pattern of gradual change in a certain direction, a tendency แนวโน้ม

one factor driving this trend - one thing causing the pattern of change (trend) ปัจจัยที่ทำให้เกิดการเปลี่ยนแปลงนี้

celibacy - when a person does not marry or have children คนโสด

projected to rise - predicted or expected to rise in the future มีแนวโน้มว่าจะเพิ่มสูงขึ้น

family planning - the planning and control of when to have children, includes the use of birth control, sex education, and counseling (See Wikipedia) การวางแผนครอบครัว

encourage - give a person hope, confidence, and enthusiasm to do something, motivate a person ให้กำลังใจ

discourage - cause someone to be less enthusiastic about doing something ทำให้ท้อแท้  หมดหวัง

pro-natal policy - a government policy that encourages people to have children รัฐบาลที่สนับสนุนให้ประชาชนมีบุตร

anti-natal policy - a government policy that discourages people to have children รัฐบาลที่ไม่สนับสนุนให้ประชาชนมีบุตร

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