Contractionary
Chinese monetary policy:
Declining Thai exports to China, double
dip recession ahead?
By Jon Fernquest 
The
US economy may be falling into a double dip
recession
(Read Robert
Reich article).Thailand's exports and economic could take a hit as a result.
Today's article is about declining Thai exports to China and it begins after the vocabulary below.
Also read previous articles on the economic recovery in the archives (#1 and #2).
contract (verb) -
grow smaller, shrink
contraction (noun) - decreasing in size, shrinking, growing smaller
contractionary (adjective)
economic contraction - a period of when growth and incomes decrease in an economy and real GDP (adjusted for inflation and declining value of money) is falling
contractionary monetary policy - when increases in central bank interest rates, decreases in money supply and/or increases in reserve requirements have a contractionary effect on the economy (See Wikipedia)
reserve requirement - percentage of deposits that must be held as cash by banks and not loaned out as additional loans, this has the effect of reducing the supply of loans or "credit" in the economy, this has a contractionary effect on the economy (See Wikipedia)
contractionary fiscal policy - when decreases in government spending or increases in taxation have a contractionary effect on the economy (See Wikipedia)
double dip recession, w-shaped recession - "when the economy has a recession, emerges from the recession with a short period of growth, but quickly falls back into recession" (See Wikipedia)
take a hit - get hurt by a bad event
economic recovery - when the economy, incomes and growth start getting better after an economic downturn
contraction (noun) - decreasing in size, shrinking, growing smaller
contractionary (adjective)
economic contraction - a period of when growth and incomes decrease in an economy and real GDP (adjusted for inflation and declining value of money) is falling
contractionary monetary policy - when increases in central bank interest rates, decreases in money supply and/or increases in reserve requirements have a contractionary effect on the economy (See Wikipedia)
reserve requirement - percentage of deposits that must be held as cash by banks and not loaned out as additional loans, this has the effect of reducing the supply of loans or "credit" in the economy, this has a contractionary effect on the economy (See Wikipedia)
contractionary fiscal policy - when decreases in government spending or increases in taxation have a contractionary effect on the economy (See Wikipedia)
double dip recession, w-shaped recession - "when the economy has a recession, emerges from the recession with a short period of growth, but quickly falls back into recession" (See Wikipedia)
take a hit - get hurt by a bad event
economic recovery - when the economy, incomes and growth start getting better after an economic downturn
ASIA FOCUS
Thai exports to China fall on stricter property rules
7/06/2010Thai exports to China in April reached their lowest point in five months because of stricter financial and real estate measures imposed by the Chinese government, says Kasikorn Research Center.
Economic uncertainties in Europe and the United States may also curb the export boom enjoyed earlier this year, said the centre.
stricter property rules - stronger
property rules with more restrictions
measures - actions taken to solve a problem มาตรการ
imposed - force someone to do something or follow some rule
Kasikorn Research Center - Thailand's top private economic research center (See website)
economic uncertainties - when people don't know whether the economy will be good in the future
curb - stop or reduce ลดหรือยุติ
export boom - when the country receives a lot of income and economic growth from selling lots of goods to foreign countries
curb the export boom - stop or reduce the large amount of exports that the country is generating income and wealth with
measures - actions taken to solve a problem มาตรการ
imposed - force someone to do something or follow some rule
Kasikorn Research Center - Thailand's top private economic research center (See website)
economic uncertainties - when people don't know whether the economy will be good in the future
curb - stop or reduce ลดหรือยุติ
export boom - when the country receives a lot of income and economic growth from selling lots of goods to foreign countries
curb the export boom - stop or reduce the large amount of exports that the country is generating income and wealth with
The growth in Thai export value to China fell to 28% year-on-year in April, in contrast with the impressive 70% average for the first three months of this year. By month-on-month comparison, the figure of US$1.55 billion in April was a contraction of 14.4% from March.
Although the decreasing trend in the year-on-year comparison partly reflects the very low export values early in 2009 when the global financial crisis was peaking, K-Research also believes the measures to cool its economy played a role.
contrast
- a noticeable difference ความแตกต่าง
X in contrast with Y - X and Y are very different
impressive - makes you think very highly of it (because it is very large, lifelike, colourful, beautiful, etc) ประทับใจ, ซึ่งน่าประทับใจ
figure - an amount of money จำนวนเงิน
trend - a gradual change or development that produces a particular result ทิศทาง แนวโน้ม
year-on-year comparison - comparing some statistic (on economic performance) with the same period last year
global - throughout the world ทั่วโลก
crisis - an urgent, difficult or dangerous situation วิกฤต
measures to cool its economy - things the government does to slow the economy down a bit (else there could be an asset price bubble (stock market, real estate) that bursts causing great damage to the economy)
role - influence in a situation บทบาท
X played a role - X influenced the situation
X in contrast with Y - X and Y are very different
impressive - makes you think very highly of it (because it is very large, lifelike, colourful, beautiful, etc) ประทับใจ, ซึ่งน่าประทับใจ
figure - an amount of money จำนวนเงิน
trend - a gradual change or development that produces a particular result ทิศทาง แนวโน้ม
year-on-year comparison - comparing some statistic (on economic performance) with the same period last year
global - throughout the world ทั่วโลก
crisis - an urgent, difficult or dangerous situation วิกฤต
measures to cool its economy - things the government does to slow the economy down a bit (else there could be an asset price bubble (stock market, real estate) that bursts causing great damage to the economy)
role - influence in a situation บทบาท
X played a role - X influenced the situation
The government has tightened its inflation-control measures and slowed credit growth by increasing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks, the third such adjustment made this year.
Concerned about a bubble economy, China has also moved to control real estate market growth since the beginning of the year, directly slowing the expansion of related businesses such as construction materials and furniture.
inflation
- the level of prices rising in the economy as a whole (See Wikipedia
and The
Economist glossary) ภาวะเงินเฟ้อ, อัตราเงินเฟ้อ
tightened its inflation-control measures - changed policy to better control inflation
credit - the total amount of loans in an economy เครดิต เงินกู้ทั้งหมด
reserve - something currently not being used but that can be used when needed สำรองไว้
reserve requirement ratio (RRR) - the percentage for the "reserve requirement" in a country's banking system (See "reserve requirement" above, also known as: deposit reserve requirement ratio, cash reserve ratio) (See Wikipedia)
commercial - for business purposes
commercial banks - a bank or a division of a bank primarily dealing with deposits and loans from corporations or large businesses (See Wikipedia)
expansion - when something increases in size, number or importance การขยายออก
construction - the work of building or making something, especially buildings, bridges, etc. การก่อสร้าง
tightened its inflation-control measures - changed policy to better control inflation
credit - the total amount of loans in an economy เครดิต เงินกู้ทั้งหมด
reserve - something currently not being used but that can be used when needed สำรองไว้
reserve requirement ratio (RRR) - the percentage for the "reserve requirement" in a country's banking system (See "reserve requirement" above, also known as: deposit reserve requirement ratio, cash reserve ratio) (See Wikipedia)
commercial - for business purposes
commercial banks - a bank or a division of a bank primarily dealing with deposits and loans from corporations or large businesses (See Wikipedia)
expansion - when something increases in size, number or importance การขยายออก
construction - the work of building or making something, especially buildings, bridges, etc. การก่อสร้าง
As a result of the policies, China's industrial production growth declined from 18.1% in March to 17.8% in April. Similarly, the intended impact has also seen in real estate investment in urban areas, weakening demand for imports from Thailand and other countries.
Key Thai export items to China continue to grow in value but at a slower rate when compared to the first three months, said the centre. Such products include computers and parts, rubber and rubber products, chemical products, plastic resins, tapioca, electrical circuits, wooden products, and electrical and electronic goods and parts.
intended
- planned; wanted to happen ที่ได้วางแผนไว้ ที่ตั้งใจให้เกิดขึ้น
impact - an effect or influence ผลกระทบ
investment - taking your money and putting it into projects to make a profit or earn interest (buying stock shares, bonds, real estate)
urban - connected with towns and cities เขตเมือง
demand - the need and desire to buy goods and services by households and businesses
rate - the level or speed at which something happens or changes, or the amount or number of times it happens or changes in a particular period อัตรา
rubber - a material that can undergo elastic deformation under stress and return to its previous size without permanent deformation
plastic resins - chemicals used to make plastic (See Wikipedia)
tapioca - cassava, an important food source of carbohydrates, also source of ethanol car fuel (See Wikipedia) มันสำปะหลัง
electrical circuits, electronic circuits - used as parts in electrical and electronic products, wires connecting electronic components such as resistors, transistors, capacitors, inductors and diodes (See Wikipedia)
impact - an effect or influence ผลกระทบ
investment - taking your money and putting it into projects to make a profit or earn interest (buying stock shares, bonds, real estate)
urban - connected with towns and cities เขตเมือง
demand - the need and desire to buy goods and services by households and businesses
rate - the level or speed at which something happens or changes, or the amount or number of times it happens or changes in a particular period อัตรา
rubber - a material that can undergo elastic deformation under stress and return to its previous size without permanent deformation
plastic resins - chemicals used to make plastic (See Wikipedia)
tapioca - cassava, an important food source of carbohydrates, also source of ethanol car fuel (See Wikipedia) มันสำปะหลัง
electrical circuits, electronic circuits - used as parts in electrical and electronic products, wires connecting electronic components such as resistors, transistors, capacitors, inductors and diodes (See Wikipedia)
As of April, China was still Thailand's top export destination, holding an 11.3% share of total Thai exports, ahead of Japan and the US, at 10% and 9.7%, respectively.
However, other factors may further limit Thai exports to China, particularly the looming troubles in China's top two overseas markets, the EU and US. The debt crises in Greece and other European countries are major concerns as they may affect the whole region as well as the global economy.
destination
- the place where someone or something is going ปลายทาง,
จุดหมายปลายทาง
share - the percentage of some large thing that on partner has
factors - one of the things that effects a situation or event ปัจจัย
limit - a highest or lowest amount
looming - seeming likely to happen soon ที่เห็นลางๆ
debt - an amount of money that you owe หนี้
debt crises - when a whole economy is unable to pay back debt on time and there is a crisis
concerns - things that people worry about ความกังวล
share - the percentage of some large thing that on partner has
factors - one of the things that effects a situation or event ปัจจัย
limit - a highest or lowest amount
looming - seeming likely to happen soon ที่เห็นลางๆ
debt - an amount of money that you owe หนี้
debt crises - when a whole economy is unable to pay back debt on time and there is a crisis
concerns - things that people worry about ความกังวล
The US, however, is seeing economic improvement and its Federal Reserve has projected that the country may see growth of 3.2% to 3.7% this year, but it is also bound to take a hit if the European crisis escalates.
If the troubles with EU and US economies become more serious, China will be motivated to tighten its financial measures even more in the latter half of the year, which in turn will hurt the Thai export sector. In this scenario, K-research predicted Thai exports to China would record only 18-25% growth for the whole year, compared to 70% in the first quarter.
improvement
- when something gets better or when you make it better การปรับปรุง,
การทำให้ดีขึ้น
projected - the amount that experts believe (forecast) for the future
bound - certain; sure แน่นอน
take a hit - get hurt by a bad event
crisis escalates - crisis gets worse
motivated - done for a particular reason มีแรงจูงใจ ถูกโน้มน้าวใจ
sector - a part of the economy (public sector = government, private sector = all businesses, household sector = families and consumers, banking sector,...) (See Wikipedia) ภาค (เศรษฐกิจ)
scenario - the way that a situation may develop in the future
record - "record" as a statistic, reported by the government (every month, quarter or year)
first quarter - the first three months of the year (time period used for budgeting money in an organization and also for financial reporting)
projected - the amount that experts believe (forecast) for the future
bound - certain; sure แน่นอน
take a hit - get hurt by a bad event
crisis escalates - crisis gets worse
motivated - done for a particular reason มีแรงจูงใจ ถูกโน้มน้าวใจ
sector - a part of the economy (public sector = government, private sector = all businesses, household sector = families and consumers, banking sector,...) (See Wikipedia) ภาค (เศรษฐกิจ)
scenario - the way that a situation may develop in the future
record - "record" as a statistic, reported by the government (every month, quarter or year)
first quarter - the first three months of the year (time period used for budgeting money in an organization and also for financial reporting)
(Source: Bangkok Post, ASIA FOCUS, Thai exports to China fall on stricter property rules, 7/06/2010, link)
