Monthly Thai exports fall significantly:
Future trend or monthly anomaly?
By Jon Fernquest
Most Asian countries would like to feel that
their economic future is not tied to the west.Despite the strong dependence of Asian growth on exports to affluent western markets the hope, or wishful thinking, is that Asian economies could somehow be "decoupled" from these wealthy markets by diversifying export destinations to within Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, .etc...
The notion that there is somewhere to hide while the world economy slips slowly and surely into the mud may be quickly coming to an end.
Thailand experienced its slowest monthly growth in exports in six and a half years this October (since July 2002).
Everyone is expecting the current economic slowdown to hit Thailand sooner or later.
Maybe it already has, but that's still a maybe.
a trend - a pattern in the movement of a
value (for example, a general upwards trend over several years, a trend
towards high sales during the Christmas season) ความนิยม
an anomaly - something that doesn't follow a general pattern or rule ที่ต่างไปจากปกติ
affluent - wealthy ที่มั่งคั่ง
wishful thinking - when you treat what you would like to happen as actually happening (even though it clearly isn't) ความหวังลมๆแล้งๆ
decoupled - not connected, the idea that "European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession" ไม่สัมพันธ์กัน ไม่ถูกกระทบ (See Wikipedia and read recent article on the end of decoupling)
diversifying - choosing a variety, many different kinds (this helps reduce risk since the fortunes of these many different kinds are not likely to all move together) หลากหลาย
a notion - an idea ความเห็น ความคิดเห็น
sooner or later, will happen sooner or later - will happen for sure, just don't know when ไม่ช้าก็เร็ว อีกไม่นาน (เหตุการณ์นั้นๆ ก็จะมาถึง)
an anomaly - something that doesn't follow a general pattern or rule ที่ต่างไปจากปกติ
affluent - wealthy ที่มั่งคั่ง
wishful thinking - when you treat what you would like to happen as actually happening (even though it clearly isn't) ความหวังลมๆแล้งๆ
decoupled - not connected, the idea that "European and Asian economies, especially emerging ones, have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there, even a fully fledged recession" ไม่สัมพันธ์กัน ไม่ถูกกระทบ (See Wikipedia and read recent article on the end of decoupling)
diversifying - choosing a variety, many different kinds (this helps reduce risk since the fortunes of these many different kinds are not likely to all move together) หลากหลาย
a notion - an idea ความเห็น ความคิดเห็น
sooner or later, will happen sooner or later - will happen for sure, just don't know when ไม่ช้าก็เร็ว อีกไม่นาน (เหตุการณ์นั้นๆ ก็จะมาถึง)
Monthly statistics move up and down a lot, but it doesn't look so good....
Comparing monthly exports year-on-year means you are comparing exports this month with monthly exports one year ago. Monthly exports figures tend to jump up and down (volatility) so one can't say for sure this is the beginning of a downward trend, but it sure looks like one (See the volatility of monthly export figures in a nice graph at Thai Crisis blog).From 2006 to 2007 October exports rose 26.2% but from 2007 to 2008 only 5.2%.
Growth for the previous month September, 2008 was a lot higher at 19.4%.
This is the US dollar value of exports determined by: 1. the quantity sold and 2. the price it was sold at. Prices for commodities such as rice and rubber have declined sharply over the last few months so a lot of the decline may be due to falling prices and not falling quantities exported.
Many of the destinations for Thai exports, such as Australia and Indonesia, have been experiencing currency volatility due to the global financial crisis. Facing currency stability many prospective buyers have likely chosen to delay their purchase orders.
Shipments to many destinations within Asia declined quite a bit this month:
27.9% - Singapore
22.6% - Taiwan
20.5% - Hong Kong
17.6% - Philippines
22.6% - Taiwan
20.5% - Hong Kong
17.6% - Philippines
Three of these countries seem to either officially be in a recession (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan). Deutsche Bank claims that the Philippines has not been relatively unaffected by the global economic downturn (Read article).
year-on-year - compared to the same period
last year (for example: "...rise by 5% year-on-year in the first
quarter of 2007") (See OECD
glossary)
(เปรียบเทียบแบบ) ปีต่อปี
volatility - a measure of risk in financial markets, the degree to which asset prices swing up and down (See The Economist and glossary) อัตราความเสี่ยงต่อการลงทุนทางการเงิน
US dollar value of exports - the quantity of exports sold X the dollar price of the exports ค่าของสินค้าที่ส่งออกเมื่อคิดเป็นเงินดอลลาร์
currency stability - a currency that remains near one value for a long time (like the Thai baht when it was at 25 to the dollar for many years) เสถียรภาพของสกุลเงิน
currency volatility - a currency that moves around a lot (like the baht after the 1997 crisis when the baht lost value reaching almost 60 to the dollar) การแกว่งของค่าเงิน
volatility - a measure of risk in financial markets, the degree to which asset prices swing up and down (See The Economist and glossary) อัตราความเสี่ยงต่อการลงทุนทางการเงิน
US dollar value of exports - the quantity of exports sold X the dollar price of the exports ค่าของสินค้าที่ส่งออกเมื่อคิดเป็นเงินดอลลาร์
currency stability - a currency that remains near one value for a long time (like the Thai baht when it was at 25 to the dollar for many years) เสถียรภาพของสกุลเงิน
currency volatility - a currency that moves around a lot (like the baht after the 1997 crisis when the baht lost value reaching almost 60 to the dollar) การแกว่งของค่าเงิน
(Source: Bangkok Post, business, Thai export growth slowest in six years, PHUSADEE ARUNMAS, 22-11-08, link)
