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[Thai Economics Library | Archives| Currency Crisis 2007| Entrepreneurs]
July 22, 2010

Bangkok protest and riot's toll on tourism in Thailand not as bad as expected

By Jon Fernquest

Bangkok riotsJust a few weeks ago travel industry experts were predicting that the recent protests and riots in Bangkok and the state of emergency (SOE) that followed would devastate Thailand's tourism industry (Read article).  

It turns out that this prediction was an over-reaction to the disturbing events of two months ago. 

Today's article begins after the vocabulary.

predict - say what you think will happen in the future  ทำนาย
riot - a violent protest by a group of people  ความไม่สงบ การจลาจล
state - condition สภาพ
State of Emergency (SOE)  - "a governmental declaration that may suspend certain normal functions of government, alert citizens to alter their normal behaviors, or order government agencies to implement emergency preparedness plans. It can also be used as a rationale for suspending civil liberties. Such declarations usually come during a time of natural disaster, during periods of civil disorder, or following a declaration of war (in democratic countries, many call this martial law, mostly with non-critical intent)." (See Wikipedia)

devastate - seriously damage or completely destroy
It turns out X - in the end the situation was X (perhaps different from expected) 
over-reaction - being more worried (annoyed, offended, etc) than you have to be or should be
disturbing - makes a person very upset or worried

Aviation
TRAVEL & AVIATION

Dire tourism predictions overblown

21/07/2010
Boonsong Kositchotethana

The fallout from Thailand's recent political riots appears to be far less disastrous than originally feared, an international travel industry leader says.

During the protests, we thought it would lead to a tourism disaster. But to our pleasant surprise, though the response has been subdued, it is not that bad," said David Brett, president of the Bangkok-based regional unit of Amadeus, a global travel technology service provider.

dire - very serious
prediction (noun) - statement about what you think will happen in the future 
overblown - when something is described as more important, exciting or impressive that it actually is
fallout - the negative effects from a bad event or action (like "nuclear fallout" from a nuclear bomb)
disastrous - extremely bad or unsuccessful ซึ่งทำให้เกิด (ภัยพิบัติ, ความหายนะ, ความโชคร้าย)
international - between or involving many different countries ระหว่างประเทศ
protests - meetings, sometimes forceful or violent, or public statements by people who strongly disagree with something ชุมนุมประท้วง
disaster - something very bad that happens and causes a lot of damage or kills a lot of people ความหายนะ ภัยพิบัติ
subdued - not very active, not a lot happening
Amadeus - a computer reservations system that sells tickets for many different airlines around the world (See Wikipedia)
global - throughout the world ทั่วโลก
service provider - standard way to talk about companies that provide you either internet service or services over the internet

His assessment is generally consistent with what other industry leaders observed as traffic began to bounce back in the latter part of last month after plummeting in May during the aftermath of the crackdown on red-shirt protesters in central Bangkok.

Long-haul tourists may be scared but not those in the region. People from the region, especially from Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, are travelling back to Bangkok for a weekend or three to four days. Those who saw the violence on TV noted where the problems were and made plans to avoid it.

assessment - a judgment or opinion การประเมิณสถานการณ์
consistent - agrees with, does not contradict or not match logically
traffic - the number traveling to a place during a period of time (people, aircraft, ships, trains, cars, trucks, etc.) ความหนาแน่นของจำนวนคน หรือยานพาหนะในช่วงเวลาใดช่วงเวลาหนึ่ง
bounce back - improve and get better again after some bad event happens
plummet - fall quickly by a large amount (like something dropping from the top of a large building)
aftermath - what happens after a bad event
crackdown - strong action that someone in authority takes to stop a particular activity การปราบจลาจล, การใช้กำลังเข้าปราบปรามของเจ้าหน้าที่, การใช้กำลังสลายผู้ประท้วง, การปราบปรามขั้นเด็ดขาด
long-haul tourists - tourists traveling long distances by airplane
violence - physical force with the deliberate intention of causing damage to property or injury or death to people ความรุนแรง

The year-on-year tourism figures this year look good partly because they are being compared with last year when there was also rioting in April by supporters of fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, coupled with the global economic recession.

The improving outlook prompted the Tourism Council of Thailand to increase its projection for foreign arrivals this year to between 15.19 million and 15.57 million, up from 13 million in the days after the May 19 riots.

figures - statistics, numbers describing the economy 
fugitive - found guilty of breaking law but not found and arrested yet (avoiding rest)
recession - a period when trade and industry are not successful and there is a lot of unemployment ภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย (See Wikipedia and list of recessions in US)
outlook - how good or bad things it seems things will be in the future ภาพรวม อนาคต
outlook - what people think will happen in the future อนาคตที่คาดไว้
projection - guess about the future based on information that you have now การคาดคะเน

Mr Brett said that while the country has the potential to see traffic bounce back to 2007 levels, its best year, more political protests could wash all that away.

The volume of reservations for airline seats in Asia-Pacific through travel agents jumped 22% in the first five months of this year, showing the robust recovery of air traffic, according to figures compiled by Amadeus. Thai Airways International has recorded similar improvements.

THAI's revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) for June were 8.3% higher than the same month last year, and 10.87% higher than in May 2010. Its cabin factor last month was 65.5%, which was 0.67 points higher than in June 2009, and 15.58 points higher than in May 2010.

potential - possible or likely for event or situation to happen ความเป็นไปได้
volume - the quantity or amount of something
reservations - making an arrangement for a hotel room, airplane or restaurant seat, before the date you actually use it
robust - strong
recovery - when the economy gets better (more jobs, higher incomes) การฟื้นฟูสภาพ
air traffic - all the flights coming into and leaving an airport or area
revenue - income from taxes or business activities รายได้
cabin - the area where passengers sit in an aircraft ห้องคนโดยสารในเครื่องบิน
factor - a fact or situation which influences the result of something ปัจจัย

(Source: TRAVEL & AVIATION, Dire tourism predictions overblown, 21/07/2010, Boonsong Kositchotethana, link)




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