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[Thai Economics Library | Archives| Currency Crisis 2007| Entrepreneurs]
March 25, 2009

rubber

International coordination to cut rubber supply
After tire and rubber demand plummets

By Jon Fernquest

rubberGlobal rubber demand in the downturn

With the global economic slump, automobile demand has fallen dramatically worldwide.

Demand for automobile tires made of rubber has also fallen, resulting in plummeting rubber prices.

coordination - working together in an efficient manner 
plummet -
fall suddenly by a large amount
an economic slump
, a downturn - a period of reduced economic activity and income
fallen dramatically - decreased by a very large amount 
plummeting prices - prices that are falling fast by large amounts

China's automobile market, the world's second largest auto market after the US, grew at the slowest pace in a decade last year.

Future demand rubber in China will have a big impact on global rubber demand. Recent developments give cause for optimism

"China’s vehicle sales surged 25 per cent in February, the first gain in four months, after the government cut taxes on some models. China’s tire makers are now running at full capacity."

Overall, the outlook for rubber this year does not look good:

Usage will shrink at least 6.1 per cent to 20.8 million metric tons this year, compared with last year’s 4.1 per cent drop, ...The slump may be as much as 9 per cent in 2009...

Demand for natural rubber may slide 2.7 per cent this year to 9.3 million tons, while consumption of its synthetic rival may slump 8.7 per cent to 11.5 million tons... natural rubber demand may contract at least 5.5 per cent.

pace - the speed at which something happens  ท่างทำนอง ย่างก้าว จังหวะ ที่สิ่งต่างๆ ดำเนินไป
optimism - a feeling that good things will happen in the future มีทัศนคติที่ดี
give cause for optimism - give us a reason to believe that good things will happen in the future    ให้เห็นว่าควรจะมองในแง่ดี
sales surged 25 percent - sales increased suddenly by 25%   ยอดขายเพิ่มขึ้น  25%
capacity - the greatest amount (maximum) that can be produced with existing machines and facilities  ความสามารถในการทำงาน
the capacity of a factory - the greatest amount that can be produced with the current factory  ความสามารถในการผลิต
running at full capacity - factories are producing the full amount they can produce (100% capacity)  ผลิตเต็มกำลังความสามารถ
the outlook for rubber - what will happen in the future to rubber demand and rubber prices  อนาคตของตลาดยางพารา

Coordinated efforts to cut global rubber supply

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, which produce 70% of the world's natural rubber, agreed in December to reduce exports by 700,000 tonnes this year. They will stockpiling rubber in order to reduce supply and shore up prices.

Plans are to cut the global rubber supply by 900,000 tonnes to a total of 8.12 million to 8.15 million tonnes.

In order to do this, farmers will cut down trees and reduce production by 10%.

There are also plans to boost rubber demand by promoting the use of rubber in road construction by mixing it with asphalt.

coordinated efforts - people working together to achieve a goal  ความพยายามร่วมกัน
natural rubber - rubber from rubber trees (See Wikipedia)  ยางดิบ
synthetic - products made from chemicals and not natural substances  ที่สังเคราะห์
synthetic rubber - rubber made artificially from chemicals in a factory (See Wikipedia)  ยางพาราที่สังเคราะห์แล้ว
stockpile - store large amounts of something for future use   จำนวนสินค้าที่เก็บตุนไว้เป็นจำนวนมาก
shore up prices -  prevent prices from falling to low levels, help them rise again if they fall  พยุงราคาสินค้า
asphalt - a sticky black material used for the top covering of roads (See Wikipedia)  ยางมะตอย

Rubber subsidies for farmers

The government plans to buy natural rubber from farmers at 47 baht per kilogramme as part of its latest intervention scheme to shore up prices.

The price is about two baht higher than market prices of 44-45 baht per kilogramme.

The scheme should help rubber farmers stay in business and enjoy a slight profit.

Rubber production costs are now 39 baht per kg.

The rubber bought up by the government should enter the market in May or June.

a subsidy - when the government pays part of the cost of  something  เงินช่วยเหลือ
enjoy a slight profit -  make a small profit  ได้กำไรนิดหน่อย
stay in business - keep operating as a business, no business failure   สามารถดำเนินกิจการต่อไปได้

Stockpile rubber to reduce supply and raise prices

To shore up local prices, the cabinet in February approved a plan to stockpile 200,000 tonnes as prices have almost halved in the past 12 months.

The 8-billion-baht scheme will involve interest-free loans to farmers' co-operatives that will allow them to hold back 8% of the rubber they produce for export each year.

The stockpiling programme is part of a broader price support plan involving 110 billion baht in loans from the Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives (BAAC).

interest-free loans - loans that must be paid back but no charge for using the money (interest rate)  เงินกู้ประเภทปลอดดอกเบี้ย
farmers' cooperatives - (See Wikipedia)
Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Co-operatives (BAAC) - Thai government bank specialising in microfinance and banking for farming households (See website, a case study [pdf], at the FAO) ธกส ธนาคารเพื่อการเกษตรและสหกรณ์

(Source #1: Bangkok Post, business, 24/03/09, Government to buy rubber at 47 baht/kg, CHATRUDEE THEPARAT, link)

(Source #2: Bangkok Post, business, 23-03-09, Bloomberg, Global demand for rubber may fall 9%, link)


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