OECD Economic Outlook, November 2006

Although the report is not available for free download and general reading online, country summaries are available, as well as a chapter on the possible effects of rising household debt. The OECD is predicting a slowdown, but not a major slowdown:

"Rather than a major slowdown, what the world economy may be facing is a rebalancing of growth across OECD regions. Indeed, recent developments point to an unwinding of cyclical differences, with activity having slowed in the United States and Japan, and gathered speed in Europe. Looking ahead, and given what is seemingly a mild degree of initial excess demand in the United States and Japan, the slowdown in these countries should remain well-contained. In the euro area, recent hard data as well as business and consumer confidence suggest that a solid upswing may be underway. In addition, growth should remain buoyant in China, India, Russia and other emerging economies. All in all, Japan and the euro area would grow slightly above trend over the next two years while US growth would return progressively to potential in the course of 2007, following the recent steep deceleration in activity." (Source: Editorial: Smooth Rebalancing?)

Abstract: "Twice a year, the OECD Economic Outlook, analyses the major trends and examines the economic policies required to foster high and sustainable growth in member countries. This edition analyses the major trends that will mark the years 2007 and 2008, providing in-depth coverage of main economic policy issues and policy challenges. Forthcoming developments in major non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. Each edition of this Outlook provides a unique tool to keep abreast of world economic developments."