The greying of Thai
society
Help from Japan
By Jon Fernquest Some intriguing demographic charts caught my eye last week.
They were hanging on the door of the Thailand Information Center (TIC) at Chulalongkorn University library (6th floor) .
The charts compared population pyramids for Thailand over almost 50 years and the differences were remarkable.
Two of these population pyramids (shown below) show how the age distribution of Thailand's population has changed over the last 20 years.
The fat part of the pyramid has moved upwards which means that the average age of the population is increasing.
This can be due to a variety of factors. For example, women are staying in education longer and then working longer instead of immediately marrying and starting a family.
Religion can also have an effect on a country's population pyramid. For example, the Philippines and other largely Catholic countries have not experienced as much greying as Thailand has in recent decades because Catholicism discourages birth control thus encouraging large families.
In Thursday's Bangkok Post the Japanese ambassador to Thailand Kyoji Komachi wrote of the challenges that Thailand is likely to face in the near future as its population greys.
Japan has experienced similar patterns of population growth and can help Thailand in the transition.
Also see a previous article about how there are "more women than men and fewer babies in Thailand" (Read article).
Today's article follows the vocabulary:
greying of a
population - when a whole population of a country or a
region grows older
Thailand Information Center (TIC) - a center that houses a wide variety of documents, books, articles, and databases with information on Thailand (See library catalog and also see Population Information Center, Chulalongkorn University)
Chulalongkorn University - the oldest university in Thailand (See Wikipedia)
demographic - regarding the population of a country or area (See Wikipedia and also see Wikipedia on demographics of Thailand)
population pyramid - a diagram that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population, an age structure diagram (See two diagrams above and Wikipedia)
intriguing - interesting and a little strange
remarkable - unusual or special in way that causes people to notice and be impressed or surprised
age distribution - the ages of a population are spread out (See population pyramid above)
birth control - ways of preventing or reducing likelihood of pregnancy and childbirth (See Wikipedia)
challenges - difficult tasks that require great effort
transition - change
Thailand Information Center (TIC) - a center that houses a wide variety of documents, books, articles, and databases with information on Thailand (See library catalog and also see Population Information Center, Chulalongkorn University)
Chulalongkorn University - the oldest university in Thailand (See Wikipedia)
demographic - regarding the population of a country or area (See Wikipedia and also see Wikipedia on demographics of Thailand)
population pyramid - a diagram that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population, an age structure diagram (See two diagrams above and Wikipedia)
intriguing - interesting and a little strange
remarkable - unusual or special in way that causes people to notice and be impressed or surprised
age distribution - the ages of a population are spread out (See population pyramid above)
birth control - ways of preventing or reducing likelihood of pregnancy and childbirth (See Wikipedia)
challenges - difficult tasks that require great effort
transition - change
SENIOR CITIZENS
Thailand needs to prepare now for an ageing society
15/10/2009Kyoji Komachai
Japan
and Thailand have enjoyed a
long-standing relationship in most diverse
areas,
supported by a special relationship between the Royal Family and
the Imperial Family, as well as by robust
exchanges
in trade,
investment and culture.Japanese ambassador Kyoji Komachi says Japan can lend Thailand the benefit of its experience in dealing with the aged.
With structural changes in both countries, the time has come for us to move on to more policy-oriented dialogue on issues affecting us both.
One of the most pressing issues now is how to confront the challenges posed by rapidly ageing societies. We can start to discuss our experiences and identify an appropriate social safety net model.
Senior Citizens - people
with age over 65, people in old age (See Wikipedia
and also on old
age)
long-standing relationship - a friendship that has existed for a long time
diverse areas - a variety of different areas
robust exchanges - strong and effective exchanges
structural changes - changes in the underlying structure of the economy (here the age distribution of people in the economy)
policy-oriented dialogue - discussions on government policy
pressing issues - problems that must be solved quickly (urgent)
rapidly ageing societies - countries where with more and more older people (> 65)
long-standing relationship - a friendship that has existed for a long time
diverse areas - a variety of different areas
robust exchanges - strong and effective exchanges
structural changes - changes in the underlying structure of the economy (here the age distribution of people in the economy)
policy-oriented dialogue - discussions on government policy
pressing issues - problems that must be solved quickly (urgent)
rapidly ageing societies - countries where with more and more older people (> 65)
Thailand has achieved a remarkable economic growth particularly over the past two decades. In the process, the structure of the Thai economy has undergone significant transformation. Now agriculture accounts for only about 10% of GDP, while manufacturing makes up over 30%.
s
Such a rapid change reminds me of the post-war Japanese economic growth. The so-called Japanese miracle not only increased the overall GDP of Japan but also provided an opportunity to reduce the income gap among various social groups. As a result, about 90% of the Japanese population came to regard themselves as members of the middle class. This was made possible thanks to the policy measures for realising more equal income between cities and rural areas, coupled with a fair tax policy and redistribution of budget resources from the central government to local governments. Farmland ownership reform, anti-trust laws and support for small and medium-sized enterprises also contributed to the process.
social safety net - government
services to help people when they have problems (health, lose job,
poverty, etc)
Japanese miracle - the period of great Japanese growth after World War II when Japan became world leader in many industries such automobiles (See Wikipedia)
gap - the distance or difference between two things
reduce the income gap among various social groups -
the middle class - people with an income between the poor and the very rich (See Wikipedia and The Economist on the new middle class in emerging markets)
Japanese miracle - the period of great Japanese growth after World War II when Japan became world leader in many industries such automobiles (See Wikipedia)
gap - the distance or difference between two things
reduce the income gap among various social groups -
the middle class - people with an income between the poor and the very rich (See Wikipedia and The Economist on the new middle class in emerging markets)
Of course, we should not forget the role played by the welfare system in Japan in this regard. In 1961, the universal public health insurance scheme was introduced together with a universal public pension system, which embraced both farmers and self-employed people in addition to the already well-looked-after civil servants and workers in big enterprises.
In 2000, after long discussion a universal long-term care insurance for the elderly was introduced.
Even during the period of high economic growth, the Gini co-efficient for Japan remained remarkably stable in the range between 0.25 and 0.40. According to Pasuk Phongpaichit, the total size of income by the top 20% of the richest group in Japan is only 3.4 times bigger than that of the poorest 20%, while the corresponding figures for countries of Europe and North America are somewhere between 6-8 times. Japan is regarded as one of the most equal societies in the world.
Against such a background Japan was relatively well poised to confront the challenges of an ageing society. But the pace of ageing in Japan exceeded a set of assumptions the policy-makers had worked on, which requires a constant review of policy responses.
coupled with -
together with, combined with
redistribution - taking from one group of people and giving to another group
budget resources - money that the government plans to spends (that can be moved between different uses)
anti-trust laws, competition laws - laws that protect the economy from large powerful companies (See Wikipedia)
universal public health insurance scheme - a system that provides everyone with medical treatment
pension - a system for saving money when young and working to spend during retirement when not working
universal public pension system - system to support every retired person with income after retirement
well-looked-after - given everything they need for life and more
civil servants - government workers
universal long-term care insurance - medical insurance for medical care over long periods of time
elderly - old people, over 65
Gini co-efficient - a measure of inequality (in income or consumption expenditure here) rich western countries are usually around 0.3, Latin America is the worst around 0.5 (See The Economist on Gini Coefficient and Inequality and Wikipedia)
well poised to confront the challenges - well-prepared to handle and solve difficult problems
pace of ageing - speed of ageing
constant review of policy responses - checking all the time to see if policy is working
redistribution - taking from one group of people and giving to another group
budget resources - money that the government plans to spends (that can be moved between different uses)
anti-trust laws, competition laws - laws that protect the economy from large powerful companies (See Wikipedia)
universal public health insurance scheme - a system that provides everyone with medical treatment
pension - a system for saving money when young and working to spend during retirement when not working
universal public pension system - system to support every retired person with income after retirement
well-looked-after - given everything they need for life and more
civil servants - government workers
universal long-term care insurance - medical insurance for medical care over long periods of time
elderly - old people, over 65
Gini co-efficient - a measure of inequality (in income or consumption expenditure here) rich western countries are usually around 0.3, Latin America is the worst around 0.5 (See The Economist on Gini Coefficient and Inequality and Wikipedia)
well poised to confront the challenges - well-prepared to handle and solve difficult problems
pace of ageing - speed of ageing
constant review of policy responses - checking all the time to see if policy is working
The present demographic situation of Thailand resembles that of Japan in the mid-80s, where the share of senior population over 60 years old exceeded 10% of the whole population. This figure is the highest among Asean countries except for Singapore (UN World Population Prospects). The same UN statistics anticipates that Thailand will reach a stage where the share of citizens over 65 years will be above 14% of the whole population in about 20 years from now.
The point in question here is, how many years it will take for a country to reach the threshold of 14%? Because 14% symbolises a watershed beyond which it will be regarded as an aged society by the definition of OECD. If you have more time to adapt, it is easier.
A anticipates that B - by
looking at A we can see that B will happen
a watershed - an important event that signals change
a watershed - an important event that signals change
Prof. Kei-ichiro Oizumi from Japan made an estimate projection for some Asian countries about how many years each country took, or will take, for the percentage of the citizens over 65 to increase from 7% to 14% of its population. In the case of Thailand, it may be only just over 20 years, between 2001 and 2023. For Japan, it was 24 years, between 1970 and 1994. It will most probably be about 25 years for China, between 2001 and 2026. Those European countries which enjoy all the benefits of a welfare state were accorded more time for adapting to such demographic changes. For example in the case of Sweden, it was 82 years.
Japan reached the 14% threshold in 1995, little over 30 years after the completion of all-inclusive healthcare and pension system. The arrival for Japan of this 14% threshold necessitated the review of relevant welfare measures already in place. The review involved a wide variety of policy issues with serious and difficult discussions over budget allocation.
Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) -
an international organisation of thirty countries that accept the
principles of representative democracy and free market economy:
Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland,
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, Japan,
Finland, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Czech Republic, South Korea,
Hungary, Poland, Slovakia (See Wikipedia)
adapt - change to meet new situation
estimate - guesses an amount (not exact)
projection - guessing a future amount
welfare state - a government that takes of people with special needs (the poor, disabled, aged, long-term sickness)
accorded more time for adapting - received more time to change things
all-inclusive - includes everything
X necessitated Y - Y needed because of X
in place - system installed and working
budget allocation - a piece of future planned spending (given to a department or project)
adapt - change to meet new situation
estimate - guesses an amount (not exact)
projection - guessing a future amount
welfare state - a government that takes of people with special needs (the poor, disabled, aged, long-term sickness)
accorded more time for adapting - received more time to change things
all-inclusive - includes everything
X necessitated Y - Y needed because of X
in place - system installed and working
budget allocation - a piece of future planned spending (given to a department or project)
Another important figure: According to Mahidol Population Gazette vol. 17 of January 2008, the total fertility rate of Thailand dipped to 1.50 in 2008, which forebodes the acceleration of an ageing society at a quicker pace than Japan. You have to maintain the rate above 2.0 mark to prevent a decrease in population. In addition, the rate of 1.50 means an ever-decreasing share of the young in the overall population.
All this compels us to believe that Thailand will follow the path Japan took and has to work hard to adapt to the social change, including more social safety nets, rather quickly.
In this regard, I am impressed with the strenuous and vigorous efforts the Thai government has been implementing. Newly-initiated policy measures such as 500-baht-a-month universal allowance for all elderly above 60 years of age, 300-baht-a-month incentive for volunteers engaged in elderly care and 1,000-baht-a-month support for the handicapped and HIV/Aids patients are very impressive, indeed.
All these point to the seriousness of the Thai government in confronting head-on the issues of an ageing society. And if the sharing of Japanese experience can be of any help, we stand ready.
fertility rate - how
many children families have
forebodes - means or is a sign that something bad will happen in future
pace - speed
compels - forces
compels us to believe that - forces us to believe that
strenuous and vigorous efforts - using a lot of energy and strength to accomplish a task
newly-initiated policy measures - policy actions to solve problems created a short time ago
incentive - reward to make people do something
volunteers - people working without (for a good cause, helping people)
confronting head-on - solving problem directly (not waiting or solving other problems first)
issues - an important subect that people are discussing and debating about
forebodes - means or is a sign that something bad will happen in future
pace - speed
compels - forces
compels us to believe that - forces us to believe that
strenuous and vigorous efforts - using a lot of energy and strength to accomplish a task
newly-initiated policy measures - policy actions to solve problems created a short time ago
incentive - reward to make people do something
volunteers - people working without (for a good cause, helping people)
confronting head-on - solving problem directly (not waiting or solving other problems first)
issues - an important subect that people are discussing and debating about
(Source: Thailand needs to prepare now for an ageing society, 15/10/2009, Kyoji Komachai, link)
