Samak ouster puts Thailand at a turning point:
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University
lays out the possibilities
By Jon Fernquest |
Expand your vocabulary and learn about current political events in Thailand with Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
As usual, Dr. Thitinan uses a wide variety of English words to express just the right nuance to describe complicated events in Thai politics.
Here is the article in full:
THAI POLITICS
House dissolution best way out of impasse
THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAKFriday September 12, 2008
The Constitution Court's ruling against hitherto Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has complicated Thailand's political impasse, but will not affect the fundamental dynamics of the ongoing crisis. The unanimous 9:0 verdict automatically disqualified Mr Samak from the premiership for having hosted two commercial TV cooking shows while in power, in violation of the Constitution and its provisions against conflicts of interest. His minor infringement of the charter has produced major ramifications.
As Mr Samak has reverted to his MP status, a new prime minister will have to be elected by the 480 members of the House of Representatives. At issue is who will be the new prime minister, what it means for Thai politics, and whether it will prompt the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy to cease its protests, now illegally based at Government House.
Problems with Mr. Samak's reappointment as Prime Minister
As the ruling People's Power party still holds a near-majority in the Lower House, the new prime minister, who has to be chosen by the Lower House within 30 days of the Constitution Court's decision, is likely to derive from within the largest governing party. If Mr Samak is re-elected by the majority of MPs, including those of the erstwhile coalition partners, then the political crisis will not only remain the same, but will be more intense and volatile.
The PAD will likely step up its demonstrations, fingering Mr Samak's lack of legitimacy and ethical standards to stand as prime minister in view of the Constitution Court's overwhelming decision. To be sure, Mr Samak has engendered his own downfall. As prime minister, he should have stayed away from charter violations, however minor. The text of the verdict was damning and persuasive, involving possible fabrication of documents. If he returns as prime minister, Mr Samak will be haunted by his poor judgement and the consequent legal complications related to the mounting of his defence. Moreover, he also faces other legal charges that could yet derail his premiership again, including his appeal on a defamation conviction whose verdict is due later this month.
A second turn at the helm would be rocky for Mr Samak from the outset, and the PAD would have a field day with him. No better opportunity and timing is available for him to bid farewell. Having been re-nominated by the PPP yesterday, he could decline and choose a face-saving exit at an advance age. It would be a blessing in disguise for Mr Samak to go out on minor cookery charges while staying within the democratic process based on the Constitution. The political torrent on his other charges will likely to subside if he fades away quietly.
But some among the PPP leadership may be tempted to thrust Mr Samak into a second term as a defiant face-off against the PAD. After all, the ruling party does not have any other PM candidate of Mr Samak's stature and seasoned experience. His two unrivalled strengths are a good working relationship with the military and royalist credentials. An alternative PPP prime minister would have a difficult time dealing with the army from the outset, without the perception of palace endorsement and access.
Other candidates for Prime Minister
If Mr Samak knows when to call it quits, the internal PPP squabbling is likely to land the premiership on Deputy PM and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee, Deputy PM and Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat, or Justice Minister Sompong Amornwiwat.
Any of these three candidates as prime minister would face the same intensity of protests and personal attacks just as Mr Samak did. As a former cabinet lieutenant and brother-in-law of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, respectively, Mr Surapong and Mr Somchai are particularly vulnerable to the PAD's wrath. As the PAD overtly rejects any PPP-led administration, a PPP prime minister - either Mr Samak or any of the other candidates - would intensify and accelerate the confrontation and brinkmanship between the government and PAD.
Other extra-PPP contenders for the premiership feature Banharn Silapa-archa of Chart Thai party and Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat party.
Chart Thai is a coalition partner, and Mr Banharn has insisted that he will support a PPP-led prime minister. Even if Mr Banharn somehow lands the coveted premiership, he would face the PAD's animosity in much the same fashion. Mr Banharn also has a poor track record from the mid-1990s when he briefly served as prime minister.
Untested, the 44-year-old Oxford-educated Mr Abhisit as prime minister may be the second best outcome for the PAD (the first best being its proposed revamp of the political system to an appointments-based representation). But even if his would-be administration could tone down the PAD, Mr Abhisit would likely face the opposing virulence of the pro-PPP United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), the PAD's street-based equivalent comprising mostly pro-government demonstrators from the Northeast.
It is clear now that the PAD will not stop its street protests and illegal occupation of Government House whoever becomes the new prime minister. Mr Samak's ouster this week was a relief for those who still support the constitutional framework and the rule of law. His position appeared untenable, but his departure stemmed from the judicial process, not the the PAD's blatant blackmail. The next prime minister will be hostage to this blackmail from day one.
Recommended course of action
The best near-term way forward remains a dissolution of the Lower House and new elections, even if the last poll was just eight months ago. But this would require sacrifice on the PPP's part and on its newly appointed prime minister. The party won the last election handily, and going to the polls again would risk further dilution of its numbers due to the potential for its dissolution due to vote fraud and the mounting legal cases against its key leaders. Yet going ahead with another PPP-led premiership and administration would deepen the crisis, posing all kinds of potentially adverse outcomes for not just the PPP, but also for Thailand overall.
The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.
(Source: Bangkok Post, op-ed section, THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK, 12-09-08, temp-link)
Vocabulary:
a turning point - a time when an important change takes place in a situation
a nuance - a slight but important difference that is difficult to notice
express just the right nuance - use just the right
dissolution - an official act of ending and breaking up a group (such as parliament or a committee)
house dissolution - officially ending the house (lower house of parliament, upper house being the senate)
an impasse - a situation where it is difficult to make any progress
a political impasse - a political situation where it is difficult to make any progress
best way out of impasse - best solution to the problem that is holding back progress
hitherto Prime Minister - was Prime Minister before
fundamental dynamics - the way things work (at a very basic low level)
a verdict - a decision by a court in a legal case
unanimous 9:0 verdict - everyone voted for the verdict
minor infringement - to break or violate a minor rule
ramifications - the effects of an event (ways that an event affects other things)
major ramifications - big effects that an event has
status - position (either legal or within a society or profession)
MP status - legally having the position of MP (not Prime Minister anymore)
PPP holds a near-majority in the Lower House - almost 50% of the people in the Lower House are PPP
X derives from Y - Y is the origin of X
erstwhile X - former X, was X but is not X anymore
erstwhile coalition partners
intense - with increased activity (more effort and energy being used)
volatile - changing suddenly, possibility of becoming dangerous
more intense and volatile - with increased activity and sudden change, the situation could become dangerous
step up its demonstrations - make the demonstrations more intense
fingering Mr Samak's lack of legitimacy and ethical standards -
overwhelming decision - everyone agreed on the decision (all the judges agreed)
downfall - a sudden loss (of power, money, or position)
engendered his own downfall - caused his sudden loss of power
damning - criticise severely, find extreme fault with
damning and persuasive - criticise severely and made you believe in it
fabrication - creating something false, creating a fake
fabrication of documents - creating false documents
derail - prevent from continuing as planned
derail his premiership - prevent the Prime Minister from continuing as planned
at the helm - leading, in control (like a captain in control of a boat, the boat being the state)
have a field day with him - have a chance to cause some real problems for him
save face - avoid public embarassment, avoid looking stupidly publicly
a face-saving exit - able to leave without public embarassment
a blessing in disguise - event looks bad, but is actually good
a torrent - a fast and powerful of water
a political torrent - a sudden burst of political activity
defiant - refusing to obey
a face-off - a battle or confrontation between two groups or people
a defiant face-off - refusing to obeym they force a battle
stature - public respect and popularity
seasoned experience - has many years of experience
a working relationship between X and Y - X and Y have worked together to solve problems
working relationship with the military - has worked together with the military to solve problems (and diffuse tensions)
credentials - achievements, experience, or qualities that a person suitable for a job or task
royalist credentials - has a long history of loyally serving His Majesty the King
endorsement - when someone gives their support or backing to someone
access - have contact and communication with
perception of palace endorsement and access - people believe that they have the support of the palace and that they are in communication with the palace
knows when to call it quits - chooses an appropriate time to quit, the leave the job
squabbling - arguing
personal attacks - attack a person for who they are and what they do, an ad hominem argument (rather than attacking the issues being debated)
wrath - anger
vulnerable to the PAD's wrath - can be affected or hurt by the anger of PAD
overtly rejects - rejects very clearly (no misunderstanding)
accelerate the confrontation and brinkmanship between the government and PAD -
contenders for the premiership - people competing for the office of Prime Minister
lands Y - gets position, job, or office of Y
the coveted Y - many people want to have Y
lands the coveted premiership - gets the office of Prime Minister (that everyone wants to get)
animosity - strong feelings of dislike and anger between people
a poor track record - few achievements and little success in what they have done
second best outcome - the second best situation that could result from current events
revamp Y - make changes to improve Y
appointments-based representation - appointed and not elected (members of parliament (MPs) in the house and senate)
tone down - make less severe, shocking, and offensive
tone down the PAD - make the PAD less offensive (more acceptable to public opinion)
opposing virulence - extremely strong and angry feelings and actions
ouster - being forced to leave a position
Samak's ouster
untenable - impossible to continue (because of opposition or problems)
position appeared untenable - it seemed that he could not continue in his position
blackmail - force people to give you money or do something (usually by threatening to tell others bad things that you know about them)
blatant - very obvious (with little attempt to conceal)
blatant blackmail - easy to see that blackmail happening in this situation
a hostage - a prisoner who won't be released until the person how holds them gets what he wants
held hostage - being held hostage until money is paid or action taken
hostage to this blackmail - being held prisoner until people do what the captors want
near-term - short-term, in the near future
best near-term way forward - best plan of action for the near future
