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General Sonthi navigates himself into Thailand's post-coup future?

By Jon Fernquest

[Introduction|Article]
[Reading Questions|Answers]

For several months rumours of coup mastermind General Sonthi's next career move have been legion, always countered at a decent interval by a denial.

This pattern has become so regular that it resembles a game of ping pong.

With Sonthi's retirement in October and the election in December quickly approaching, rumours are starting to congeal into reality.

The spectre of Thaksin's return and the retribution that might be meted out to coup collaborators castes a long shadow over political maneuverings. Unlike previous exiled coup politicians, with Thaksin's billions facing possible confiscation, there's a lot of money at stake. [See Chang Noi commentary]

Will Sonthi have staying power after his retirement?

Stay tuned as events unfold over the next month or so.

Today Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) at Chulalongkorn University, provides an overview of the current political situation and how it might play out in the future.

mastermind - person who makes detailed plans to ensure success
legion - a great number
counter - do something that has the opposite effect
congeal into - become solid
spectre - the possibility that something frightening and unpleasant might occur
retribution - punishment for perceived wrongdoing
meted out - order someone to be punished
collaborators - people who helped and worked together with
maneuverings - change situation in a clever and skillful way
confiscation - take away as punishment
staying power - have the strength and determination to keep going until you reach your goal
play out - takes place with several intermediate steps
stay tuned - don't turn the TV channel, the TV show isn't over yet

Reading Questions

Here are some questions to guide your reading (See answers at end):

1. Is General Anupong the person Sonthi wanted to succeed him as head of the army?

2. How strong is Sonthi's political backing?

3. Why is the military backed political party Rak Chart no longer a major contender?

4. What currently appears to be Sonthi's strategy in the lead up to elections?

5. What is Sonthi's appointment in the interim government likely to be?

6. What positive accomplishments can General Sonthi be credited with?

7. Has there been a correlation between coup success and violence in the past?

8. What has General Sonthi failed to do that his successful coup-making predecessors succeeded in doing? Why? (Express your opinion)

9. What is the common fear and shared interest that could unite Sonthi with non-military political parties?

10. What is the PPP's relation to Thaksin?

11. What has the PPP pledged to do for Thaksin?

12. What position might Sonthi target in the cabinet of the next elected government?

13. Do you think Sonthi will try to become Prime Minister?
(Express your opinion)

Bangkok Post Article September 27, 2007

FOCUS / THAI POLITICS

The politics of Gen Sonthi's civilian role

The military high command will likely back up General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin's post-retirement political career in the interest of keeping Thaksin Shinawatra out of Thailand and down in Thai politics

By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK

As he enters mandatory retirement at the end of the month, outgoing army chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin is in a quandary.

Given the appointment of Anupong Paochinda as his successor and the lukewarm responses of political parties gearing up for the general election in December, Gen Sonthi's transition from the military to civilian politics appears unclear.

With his retirement and Gen Anupong's elevation to the top of the army, Gen Sonthi's power base in the military is much weakened. Yet his support base among the political parties is hardly more reliable. The military's political party, Rak Chart (Nation-Loving), lies in tatters because its financial backer, who is a founder of the One-Two-Go budget airline, has been dealt a severe blow by the recent tragedy in Phuket, in which 89 passengers died after a fatal landing.

In limbo, Gen Sonthi is likely to first test the waters by positioning himself for a cabinet post under Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's interim administration during its final months. Closer to the election, he is likely to cut a deal with one or more of the political parties to enter cabinet by appointment rather than having to run for an MP seat.

The growing probability of Gen Sonthi's appointment as both deputy prime minister and the now-vacant interior minister portfolio, which would allow him to supervise the general election, would increase his leverage vis-a-vis the contesting parties.

mandatory - required
in a quandary - in a difficult position
successor - person who will replace him in his job
lukewarm responses - not enthusiastic, not much support for
gearing up for - preparing for
transition - gradual change to a new system
power base -
support base - groups of people who support him politically
lies in tatters - no longer functioning, not in working order
in limbo -
test the waters - check before acting (check if water is cold before entering)
cut a deal - make a arrangement in which both sides benefit
leverage - influence and control people (See glossary)
vis-a-vis -

Sonthi and Thailand's History of Coups

To his rare credit, Gen Sonthi has supervised a peaceful, albeit unstable and volatile, post-coup transition and charter drafting to the election.

The last coup in 1991-92 ended in ignominy and bloodshed in the streets when the chief coup-maker installed himself as prime minister after the election, in which a military-backed party won.

Successful putsches in the 1970s were accompanied by violence, whereas the two coup attempts in the 1980s failed.

Yet unlike his coup-making predecessors, Gen Sonthi has failed to completely extinguish the regime he intended to oust, as exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is gone but not forgotten. The People's Power party, the reincarnation of Mr Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party, is poised to make a strong showing at the polls.

to his credit - good things that he did
albeit - although, but (reduces the force of what was just said)
ignominy - shame, public disgrace
putsches - coups
predecessors - people in the past who did what he did
reincarnation - come back to life, conce again
poised to - ready to do, in the near future
strong showing at the polls - many people will vote for it

The PPP Threat

The likelihood of the PPP's solid number of MPs is the common ground on which Gen Sonthi and the existing and emerging political parties are likely to reach a bargain.

Gen Sonthi cannot afford a Thaksin comeback and exoneration, which the PPP has explicitly declared as its objectives.

As Gen Anupong and all junta members of the Council for National Security also do not want to risk a Thaksin retribution, the military high command will back up Gen Sonthi's post-retirement political career in the interest of keeping Mr Thaksin out of Thailand and down in Thai politics.

The established political parties, comprising the Democrat, Chart Thai and Mahachon, harbour the same objective of keeping Mr Thaksin at bay, whereas the re-aligning new parties that formerly thrived under Thai Rak Thai would be willing to trade in Mr Thaksin, who is their former boss, for cabinet portfolios and post-election power.

An arrangement thus appears in the offing.

With the army's backing, Gen Sonthi together with the political parties (excluding PPP) will try to ensure that the post-election coalition government confines the TRT proxy to an opposition role.

common ground - agreement about certain issues (when you probably disagree about most issues)
comeback - return, become fashionable again
exoneration - officially finding someone not guilty of wrongdoing
retribution - punishment for perceived wrongdoing
comprising - having as parts or members
harbour - secretly have
keep at bay - prevent active participation
cabinet portfolios - a minister's responsibility for government activities
in the offing - might happen
coalition - temporary alliance and cooperation between groups
proxy - working for someone else, working on behalf of

Post-Retirement Career Prospects

In return, Gen Sonthi would likely be appointed cabinet minister in charge of security affairs, possibly a dual role as deputy prime minister and defence minister.

A non-PM cabinet member is not required to be an MP.

At the same time, a more ambitious plan cannot be ruled out.

Gen Sonthi could comfortably run as an MP candidate and win election in a constituency dominated by military personnel, such as Lop Buri province where the Special Warfare Division is based.

Gen Sonthi is a former division commander and remains popular with voters there. This would mean that he intends to aim for the premiership.

However, public support for the coup has waned. The referendum results last month indicated substantial opposition to the military-backed charter and the TRT's and Mr Thaksin's resilient appeal. If Gen Sonthi bites the bullet and runs for MP with the intention of becoming PM, he will be running against a wall of critical public sentiment.

He is unlikely to do so because Gen Anupong, who was reportedly not Gen Sonthi's first choice as army chief, is more loyal to the palace than to him.

Without firm control of the army, Gen Sonthi's role in civilian politics in the run-up to the election and beyond is constrained. Without overwhelming support from the political parties, his closet ambition to become prime minister is also curtailed.

As a result, nabbing a cabinet post through a backroom deal is likely to be his best bet in keeping Mr Thaksin away and seeing his coup end up favourably to himself and his supporters.

an ambitious plan - planning to achieve more than is expected
rule out - decide is impossible
a constituency - a geographical area participating in an election
waned - decreased
resilient - continued strength (even after many setbacks)
public sentiment - public opinion
run-up to - time period just before an event
constrained - has limitations, he can't do whatever he wants
overwhelming - very great
closet ambition - secret ambition
curtailed - reduced or limited
nabbing - getting, stealing
a backroom deal - a deal not involving public participation (or even visible to the public)

The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

Answer Key:

1. Is General Anupong the person Sonthi wanted to succeed him as head of the army?

Anupong wasn't the first choice.

("...Gen Anupong, who was reportedly not Gen Sonthi's first choice as army chief, is more loyal to the palace than to him.")

2. How strong is Sonthi's political backing?

Not very strong.
a. The financial future of the military's political party doesn't look good.
b. General Anupong's appointment has weakened his powerbase in the army.

3. Why is the military backed political party Rak Chart no longer a major contender?

The financial backer of the party is the founder of the budget airline One-Two-Go is likely to have financial difficulties after a recent airplane crash in Phuket.

4. What currently appears to be Sonthi's strategy in the lead up to elections?

a. Enter the cabinet of the interim government during its final months.
b. Supervise the general election as Interior Minister.
c. Increase his leverage with promising political parties.
d. Cut a deal with political parties to serve as a non-elected cabinet member in the next elected government.

5. What is Sonthi's appointment in the interim government likely to be?

a. Deputy Prime Minister
b. Interior Minister

6. What positive accomplishments can General Sonthi be credited with?

a. Executed a coup without bloodshed unlike the 1992 coup.
b. Supervised a post-coup transition to an election.
c. Supervised a charter drafting.

7. Has there been a correlation between coup success and violence in the past?

Apparently yes, since the successful coups of the 1970s were all accompanied by violence and the two coups in the 1980s were not successful and at least the first around 1980 was not accompanied by much violence. (Verify the second point with a good general history such as Pasuk and Baker.)

8. What has General Sonthi failed to do that his successful coup-making predecessors succeeded in doing? Why? (Express your opinion)

Sonthi has failed to completely extinguish the previous regime, perhaps because Thaksin acumulated so much wealth with his telecommunications concession monoploy.

9. What is the common fear and shared interest that could unite Sonthi with non-military political parties?

An electoral victory by the PPP, a political comeback by Thaksin, and retribution against those who acted against him.

10. What is the PPP's relation to Thaksin?

The PPP is a proxy or front organisation for Thaksin.

11. What has the PPP pledged to do for Thaksin?

A Thaksin comeback and exoneration are part of the PPP's objectives.