A full analysis of the coup
By Jon Fernquest[Introduction|Vocabulary|Article]
[Reading Questions|Answers]
 |
Today's article is a full analysis of the coup by a professor of political science at one of Thailand's top universities Chulalongkorn.
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak is the director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn. Dr. Thitinan received a PhD from the London School of Economics and Political Science in 2001 and worked as Thailand Country Analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) the business intelligence unit of The Economist from 1998 to 2005.
This scholar is obviously the right person to listen to for a complete and accurate explanation of the coup.
Reading Questions
Here are some questions to guide your reading (See answers at end):1. What was the cause of the coup, according to political scientists?
2. What does the coup resolve?
3. What does the coup leave unresolved?
4. What two tasks are on the junta's agenda?
5. What will restore Thailand's image among foreign investors and governments?
6. What were the precipitating causes behind the coup?
7. What were the two official reasons for the coup given by General Sonthi?
8. Why was General Sonthi able to succeed so quickly without any opposition in Bangkok?
9. What might happen if Thaksin returned to Thailand in the short term?
10. What might Mr. Thaksin's opponents do in the long term to prevent him returning and participating in elections again?
11. What is the vicious cycle of political instability of Thailand's past that might being happening yet again here?
Article
FOCUS / THAI POLITICS
Stepping in to heal the breach
The causes and consequences of Thailand's military coup d'etat
By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK
The lightning military coup d'etat on Tuesday against the government of Thaksin Shinawatra was unexpected but unsurprising. Something had to give sooner or later, as the political confrontation between pro- and anti-Thaksin forces became indefinitely deadlocked.
Mr Thaksin was unwilling to step down voluntarily, whereas his opponents, led by the People's Alliance for Democracy, were equally determined to take him to task for his corruption, abuses of power and overall lack of legitimacy.
The coup resolves the nine-month-old political crisis in the short term, but much uncertainty and volatility remain in the longer term, especially as the ousted prime minister lurks in the background, poised to plot a comeback when the opportunity arises.
The military junta - the Council for Democratic Reform under Constitutional Monarchy - will try to move expeditiously to install a respectable and credible civilian-led caretaker government and put in motion a political reform process revolving around a new constitution, as the 1997 charter has been abolished.
The handover of power to a universally acceptable civilian-led government in the interim will be crucial to restore Thailand's international credibility and reassure jittery investors and markets both at home and abroad.
Persistent coup rumours had been swirling for months dating to February-March this year, intensifying in recent days while Mr Thaksin was overseas.
The latest putsch represents a pressure cooker that came to a boil. Several contributing factors led to the military takeover.
First, Mr Thaksin was involved in an untenable tussle with the army chief, Sonthi Boonyaratkalin. They had different approaches towards the management of the southern insurgency. Mr Thaksin and his government categorically rejected negotiations with the insurgents, whereas the army preferred to extend an olive branch to pave the way for dialogue. The former prime minister also tried to wrest control of the army by promoting his loyalists and former classmates to key commands, including the position of army chief, in the annual reshuffle. Tinkering with the annual military promotions was part of Mr Thaksin's undoing.
Second, the controversial allegation of a car bomb assassination plot implicated senior army officers. As details of the case simply did not add up, the army saw this as an affront on its institution, a Thaksin manoeuvre to keep the army on the back foot.
Third, the PAD was reviving its street protests, and signalled that it was willing to go for broke, possibly resorting to violence to provide a pretext for Mr Thaksin's demise. The growing likelihood of violence in the streets between the PAD-led and Mr Thaksin's forces was a key consideration in the putsch.
Fourth, both sides had their hands forced on the day. Troop movements led to Mr Thaksin's pre-emptive declaration of a state of emergency and removal of Gen Sonthi, who reacted by seizing control.
Above all, the growing and defiant challenge that Mr Thaksin and his core supporters posed to the palace and the establishment became unbearable.
Deeply royalist, Gen Sonthi acted to stave off Mr Thaksin's challenge and defend the widely revered King. According to Gen Sonthi's post-coup statement on state-run television network, the defence of the throne, Mr Thaksin's lack of legitimacy due to unaddressed corruption allegations were the twin rationales for the military intervention.
That the coup makers were able to act so swiftly without palpable opposition in Bangkok is attributable to Mr Thaksin's eroded legitimacy and his underestimation of the general's decisiveness and resolve. Mr Thaksin also stayed overseas for too long and deprived himself of the tactical manoeuvrability that could have averted the putsch.
The immediate consequences of the coup are manifold. Chief among them is Mr Thaksin's future. He is unlikely to return to Thailand in the near term as long as Gen Sonthi's forces are in charge. Mr Thaksin would certainly be detained on a wide variety of charges. His assets would come under investigation. He could end up on trial for corruption and mishandling the southern insurgency, potentially landing in jail.
His exile in the immediate term is now likely, probably in London where he has purchased and stored extensive assets, thanks to his connections, including the owner of a world-famous department store. And his offspring and school-age in-laws are ensconced in public schools in the United Kingdom.
But Mr Thaksin is not completely out of the picture in the longer term. He knows that he can still return and reclaim an electoral mandate if circumstances change. After all, his Thai Rak Thai party won a 57% majority of popular votes in the April 2 election. Mr Thaksin's opponents, on the other hand, will do everything they can to make sure that the legal charges against him are so insurmountable that he will not want to come back.
Another crucial consequence is Thailand's political future. The coup has catapulted Thai democracy back 15 years when the last putsch transpired and ended in disgrace for the military-backed elected government, which was overthrown in a bloody street confrontation in May 1992.
Thailand has thus returned to square one, to a vicious cycle of constitution-election-government corruption-coup. Although a new constitution will be drafted between the next six to 18 months and overseen by the caretaker government to be set up by the military's CDR, its contents and enforcement will not ward off the likes of Mr Thaksin unless they incorporate parts of the overthrown leader's legacy that was positive, such as his focus on the rural grassroots and urban poor.
The writer is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.
Vocabulary (in discussion above)
heal the breach - take action to solve a problem (like repairing a hole in a wall)
coup d'etat - coup, when the army takes over the government of the country (See Wikipedia on coups and the Thai coup of 2006)
something had to give - something had to break because there was so much pressure and conflict
deadlocked - two sides disagree and neither side will give in (compromise) so that an agreement can be reached
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - a group of protesters against Mr. Thaksin's government including Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang (See Wikipedia)
legitimacy - political legitimacy (See Wikipedia)
volatility - sudden and unpredictable change
ousted - thrown out, removed from office
lurks - waiting secretly
poised - about to happen
a junta - a committee ruling over a military government
Council for Democratic Reform under Constitutional Monarchy - the official name of the junta currently ruling Thailand
move expeditiously - move quickly and efficiently
civilian - non-military
put in motion - start a process of changing
interim - between, temporary, an interim government is a government between two governments
credibility - believability
jittery - nervous, worried, shaking
rumours - informal news spread by word of mouth, may not be true
swirling - going around and around
putsch - a sudden attempt to takeover the government by force
untenable - cannot work for long
tussle - small short fight
insurgency - long rebellion
extend an olive branch - make an offer for peace
pave the way for - prepare for, help something happen
dialogue - discussion, talks
wrest control of - take control away from
the annual reshuffle - once a year Thai military officers are promoted and moved around
tinkering with - changing in small ways
was his undoing - was the factor that led to his downfall
controversial - many people disagree about it
allegation - accusation, formal claim that someone did something wrong
did not add up - a situation does not make sense (not logical, there is a contradiction)
an affront on - an insult, offensive
manoeuvre - make changes in a situation to gain from it
to keep the army on the back foot - to keep the army weak
go for broke - put all one's energy and effort into achieving something
provide a pretext for - provide a reason for
demise - downfall, fall, end
pre-emptive - try to solve a problem before it happens
defiant - refuse to obey, aggressively independent
unbearable - very difficult or impossible to endure (so unpleasant that it is difficult to keep accepting it)
stave off - temporarily stop a bad thing from happening
legitimacy - political legitimacy
rationales - reasons
palpable - obvious, easily noticed
attributable to - caused by
eroded - reduced by small amounts slowly (when rain erodes dirt from a mountain, the dirt on the mountain is washed away)
resolve - determination, will power to do something
tactical manoeuvrability - changing your plans in the short term to achieve success
consequences - results or effects of doing something
manifold - many
offspring - children
ensconced - staying in a place firmly and comfortably (with no plan to leave)
a mandate - official authority to do something
transpired - happened
returned to square one - return to the beginning
vicious cycle - a cycle of bad things that is repeated over and over again without end
ward off - keep a bad thing from happening
legacy - the results of someone's actions that continue to exist after they are gone
grassroots - down at the level of the common person
Answer Key:
1. What was the cause of the coup according to political scientists?
There was a deadlock between the PAD and Thaksin's government with neither side willing to step down.
2. What does the coup resolve?
The coup resolves the nine month political crisis that has paralysed Thailand in the short term.
3. What does the coup leave unresolved?
The coup leaves unresolved whether and how the persistent Mr. Thaksin might make a political comeback in Thailand.
4. What two tasks are on the junta's agenda?
a. Install a "respectable and credible" civilian government to rule until elections can take place ("caretaker government").
b. Write a new constitution.
5. What will restore Thailand's image among foreign investors and governments?
The military handing power over to a civilian government.
6. What were the precipitating causes behind the coup?
a. The dispute between Mr. Thaksin and General Sonthi over managing the insurgency in southern Thailand. The army wanted negotiations with the insurgents, Mr. Thaksin did not.
b. During the annual military reshuffle, Mr. Thaksin tried to promote officers loyal to him and take control of the army away from General Sonthi.
c. The army saw the recent car bomb assassination plot against Mr. Thaksin as a tactic used by Mr. Thaksin to control the military.
d. The PAD was going to resume street protests, perhaps resorting to violence.
e. The day of the coup, troop movements led to Mr. Thaksin declaring a state of emergency which finally triggered the coup.
f. Mr. Thaksin and his supporters posed a "defiant challenge" to the palace. For instance, the King asked the courts to resolve the political impasse after the April election. The courts suggested that the election commissioners resign, they did not, and in the end the election commissioners were sentenced to jail terms of two years.
7. What were the two official reasons for the coup given by General Sonthi?
a. "Defence of the throne."
b. "Mr Thaksin's lack of legitimacy due to unaddressed corruption allegations."
8. Why was General Sonthi able to succeed so quickly without any opposition in Bangkok?
a. Mr. Thaksin lacked legitimacy.
b. General Sonthi acted decisively with resolve.
c. Mr. Thaksin remained overseas for too long.
9. What might happen if Thaksin returned to Thailand in the short term?
He might be charged with corruption and mishandling the insurgency in Southern Thailand, tried, and then jailed.
10. What might Mr. Thaksin's opponents do in the long term to prevent him returning and participating in elections again?
Thaksin's opponents will probably try to raise "insurmountable" legal charges against him so that "he will not want to come back."
11. What is the vicious cycle of political instability of Thailand's past that might being happening yet again here?
The vicious cycle of: 1. constitution, 2. election, 3. government corruption, 4. coup, then repeating over and over again 1, 2, 3, 4....
