Challenges post-coup prime ministers face
By Jon Fernquest[Introduction | Vocabulary | Article | Reading Questions | Answers]
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General Surayud was chosen as the caretaker prime minister yesterday.
As a respected member of His Majesty the King's Privy Council, he has the political legitimacy needed for the job.
The military junta faced a trade-off in their choice.
They could have chosen an economics expert like Dr. Supachai, former head of the WTO, but they chose a fellow military officer.
Economics expertise is needed to guide the economy in the right direction.
A meeting of minds between the junta and the caretaker government is necessary to avoid the political impasses of the recent future.
Choosing General Surayud means there will there will be a meeting of minds, but the consequent lack of economics expertise might prove to be a problem.
That's the key issue addressed in today's article, how to maintain control and at the same time let the economics experts do their job and employ their expertise to solve economics problems.
In any decision of economics policy there are always winners and losers, so there will inevitably be pressures to make certain decisions, to follow certain policies.
As Dr. Thitinan observes, a problem could arise if the junta tries to overrule or unduly influence economic policy.
Reading Questions
Here are some questions to guide your reading (See answers at end):1. Has General Surayud been on the Privy Council for a long time? How long?
2. How many members does the Privy Council have?
3. Why wasn't Dr. Supachai, former head of the WTO, appointed prime minister?
4. Why are General Surayud and the CNS more likely to work together smoothly in the future?
5. What heroic role did General Surayud's grandfather play in Thai history?
6. When did General Surayud become head of the army? Who appointed him?
Did he serve a relatively long or short time in this position?
He was appointed Army chief in 1998 by Chuan Leekpai, the prime minister. He served for four years which is longer than most generals serve in the position.
7. What were General Surayud's achievements while he was army chief?
8. Did General Surayud and Mr. Thaksin have any disagreements in the past?
Explain.
9. Has General Surayud ever been a monk? When? Where?
10. Does General Surayud have expertise in economics?
11. Do foreigners have a good idea of who General Surayud is?
12. What approach to economic policymaking will he have to take?
13. What two balances will he have to strike in policy making?
14. What steps will he have to take to prevent a comeback by Mr. Thaksin?
15 Besides the day-to-day responsibilities of governing the country, what two major responsibilities lie ahead for General Surayud?
Bangkok Post Article: October 3, 2006
No honeymoon for the general
Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont faces a tall order right from the outset By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAKThe appointment of General Surayud Chulanont as caretaker prime minister has been greeted with optimism in Thailand. As a former boss to the generals who staged the putsch two weeks ago, Gen Surayud is the ideal choice for the coup makers, the self-styled Council for Democratic Reform which has converted itself into the Council for National Security (CNS). Yet it remains to be seen whether Gen Surayud is the best choice for Thailand.
Hailing from a distinguished military background, Gen Surayud is the former boss of Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin and a relative newcomer to the 19-member Privy Council, His Majesty the King's advisory body.
Prior to Gen Surayud's appointment, Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi reportedly was a leading contender for the caretaker premiership. Talks between Dr Supachai and the military junta apparently bogged down on conditionalities. The former head of the World Trade Organisation wanted to select his own cabinet ministers in economy-related portfolios, whereas the generals wanted to pick their own technocrat finance minister. The process of elimination left Gen Surayud as the final candidate.
For the CNS, Gen Surayud is a natural choice. A military man through and through, Gen Surayud speaks on the same wavelength as the coup makers. They come from the same mould. Gen Surayud is a highly respected professional, even iconic, general in the eyes of the military high command. His credentials are impeccable. His maternal grandfather fought and died in a royalist rebellion in 1933 following the overthrow of absolute monarchy the previous year. His father was an army officer-turned-communist party cadre whom he confronted in the country's counter-insurgency drive in the 1970s and 80s.
Gen Surayud was trained at the best military schools both at home and abroad. In 1998, then-prime minister Chuan Leekpai plucked him from an insignificant adviser position and promoted him as army chief, a position he commanded for an unusually long stint of four years, during which he instituted extensive reforms that made the army more professional, leaner from downsizing, and cleaner from weapons procurement transparency.
Following a row over the handling of border problems with Burma's State Peace and Development Council, ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra transferred Gen Surayud to the less powerful post of supreme commander in 2002 before his retirement in 2003, when the King appointed him to the Privy Council.
His professionalism and honesty have endeared him to the Thai people. They were most impressed with his post-retirement three-month monkhood upcountry, where he minimised contact with the lay world, living as a forest monk practicing and studying Buddhism. The Thai public views him as a man of his word, with unflinching integrity and palace connections in view of his role as one of the King's advisers.
Yet Gen Surayud lacks two key qualifications that may have made Dr Supachai appear attractive for the job. Although Gen Surayud brings considerable administrative experience, integrity, and domestic stature and prominence, he is short on economics expertise and instant international recognition. Addressing a reporter's question following his appointment, his forthright pledge to follow the sufficiency economy prerogatives may have reflected his lack of sensitivity to the markets and to the Thai economy's reliance on foreign investment and exports. This means he will have to rely heavily on a competent technocrat economic team.
Unlikely to drive economic policy directions himself, Gen Surayud will have to depend on an economics czar of sorts, either a deputy prime minister in charge of the economy and/or the finance minister. This reliance will put Gen Surayud to the test. He will be somewhat beholden to the CNS generals, but must secure sufficient autonomy for his economic team at the same time. The newly appointed prime minister will have to strike a balance between appeasing the coup makers and letting his cabinet members function with sufficient latitude.
Beyond the near-term challenge of appointing a technocrat team relatively free of military meddling, Gen Surayud will face an uphill struggle from day one. He will have to reconcile Thailand's deep polarisation by reaching out to Mr Thaksin's supporters and pacifying anti-Thaksin opponents, who are restless at the restrictions on basic civil liberties. He has to ensure that the pro-Thaksin supporters among the rural grassroots and urban poor see the truth behind Mr Thaksin's corruption and abuses of power.
This effort involves no less than a complete change of hearts and minds that Mr Thaksin captured over the past five years. Conveying messages and allowing independent media scrutiny of Mr Thaksin's infractions and wrongdoings will be crucial to give the grassroots population food for thought on the ousted prime minister's true colours.
At the same time, Gen Surayud's interim government must also deliver some of the popular policies that Mr Thaksin implemented to redress grassroots needs and grievances. The outcome of trying to reduce the rural-urban disparities should be kept on track, while Mr Thaksin's electioneering and patronage-driven objectives should be discarded.
Moreover, Gen Surayud will have to make sure that the pro- and anti-Thaksin columns do not eventually join forces and turn against his military-backed caretaker government. He also will have to keep the CNS generals in line by thwarting their attempts to interfere with government performance or to overreact to civil society protests and pro-Thaksin rumblings.
He has to see to it that the corruption investigations against Mr Thaksin and his cronies make headway in a speedy and legitimate fashion to justify the military coup and to prevent the overthrown prime minister's comeback in the near future.
And Gen Surayud will have to govern Thailand, performing day-to-day management of challenges big and small from floods and traffic to the southern violence and international obligations and responsibilities. He has to usher in a legitimate and effective Constitution-drafting process within a short interval, and must ensure a clean and fair election around a year from now.
Gen Surayud has set himself up for a tall order with little of the customary honeymoon period to enjoy. At stake is no less than his reputation and Thailand's democratic future.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.
Vocabulary
a tradeoff - a compromise, exchange part of one thing to get another (for example you may have to give up some economics expertise to get more military expertise)
a meeting of minds - when people share the same assumptions and approach to problem solving, so that their decisions harmonise (without the necessity of resolving disagreement with continual meetings and compromises)
a honeymoon - an interval of time to relax before facing the difficult problems of a new job (a "honeymoon" is the trip that a newly married couple takes before they begin their married life together)
a putsch - a sudden takeover of the government
Council for Democratic Reform (CDR) - the old name of the military council that controlled the government after the coup
Council for National Security (CNS) - the new name for the CDR, after they hand power over to a caretaker government
The Privy Council - the group of 19 senior statesmen who advise His Majesty the King
a contender - a person competing (contending) with someone for a job or limited resource
premiership - the top leadership position in a country, the position of prime minister
bogged down - taking action is difficult and slow
portfolios - government responsibilities assigned to ministers
technocrat - a person who believes that technology and economics in coordination with regulated markets is the key to governance
process of elimination - method of selection (by eliminating candidates until you find the right person for the job)
on the same wavelength as - has the same attitudes and opinions
a mould - for duplicating an statue or other object (for example when you make a Buddha statue liquid metal is poured into a mould, then you take the statue out of the mould)
a person comes from the same mould as - have the same behaviour, characteristics, and attitudes as
iconic - an important symbol (for instance here of a retired general, senior statesman, and advisor to the king)
credentials - qualifications, training, achievements, experience that shows and proves that you can do a job
impeccable - perfect, without fault
cadre - a small group of people chosen for a special purpose (used most often to refer to an inner circle of supporters in a communist government such as Mao's Red Guard)
counter-insurgency - military action to put down a rebellion
a stint - serve a short period of time at a position
downsizing - making an organisation more efficient and reducing costs
procurement - purchasing for an organisation
transparency - the details are available to the public for scrutiny (critical examination)
a row over over - an argument about
professionalism - behaviour that follows the high standards of a profession (a profession is self-regulating with its own training and performance standards)
endeared him to - made people like and appreciate him
a man of his word - a person who keeps the promises that they make, does not break promises
unflinching - strong and steady, never weakening
integrity - not corrupt, acts with honesty in a moral way
stature - a person's importance and reputation
prominence - well-known and important
forthright - when a person shows clearly and strongly what they think and feel
a pledge - a formal promise
a prerogative of y - a privilege and power that only y possesses
suffiency-economy prerogatives - His Majesty the King's philosophy of economic development that guides Thailand through the King's special power and privilege
a czar - (slang) a person appointed by the government to deal with a big problem
put to the test - this will be the test of whether he is a good prime minister or not
beholden to y - to be in debt to y, must help someone because they helped you in the past, must return a favor that y did for you
autonomy - being able to make one's own decision (without being overly influenced by outside forces)
strike a balance between x and y - balance x and y, find a middle way or path between the two extremes x and y
appeasing y - making y happy by giving them what they want
function with sufficient latitude - having enough room to choose an appropriate decision, not forced to make specific decisions
near-term - in the near future
meddling - try to influence or change decisions without being asked to do this
face an uphill struggle - beginning the job with very difficult problems to solve
reconcile - make two sides friends again after a disagreement (for example the pro- and anti- Thaksin sides)
polarisation - a situation where there are two very different sides who don't agree (for example pro- and anti- Thaksin)
restless - bored, impatient, dissatisfied, want to do something else
civil liberties - freedoms that protect an individual from the government (See Wikipedia on civil liberties)
grassroots - ordinary people (not leaders or the rich and powerful)
scrutiny - a critical examination
an infraction - a minor violation of laws
someone's true colours - what a person truly is, not what they just appear to be
a grievance - a complaint, a belief that some action or situation is unfair
redress grievances - solve problems
disparities - noticeable differences
a constituency - a section of society that gives political support to a politician or party (for example by electing them)
patronage-driven - political decisions that are driven by relationships between powerful politicians, rather than between the politician and his constituency, the people he was elected to serve
keep in line - maintain discipline (keep them from acting outside the boundaries of their authority and influencing government)
thwarting - preventing someone from doing something
cronies - close friends of a politician who gain in business from their friendship
cronyism - when a politician uses his power and influence to get jobs and special business opportunities for his friends
usher in - introduce or begin something new
political legitimacy - "the popular acceptance of a governing regime or law as an authority" (See Wikipedia)
legitimate - reasonable, justified, legal, has poltical legitimacy
a clean and fair election - no election laws are broken, voters are not illegally influenced to vote a certain way
at stake - will succeed or fail depending on the action taken, the result is still uncertain (a gambler places a bet or stake on a certain event happening)
Answer Key:
1. Has General Surayud been on the Privy Council for a long time? How long?
No, he is a "relative newcomer." He was appointed in 2003, so he has been on the Privy Council for three years.
2. How many members does the Privy Council have?
It has 19 members.
3. Why wasn't Dr. Supachai, former head of the WTO, appointed prime minister?
Dr. Supachai demanded that he be allowed to choose his own economics-related cabinet ministers, but the junta wanted to choose their own finance minister.
4. Why are General Surayud and the CNS more likely to work together smoothly in the future?
General Surayud is a military officer just like the members of the CNS, so they are more likely to see situations in a similar way which means there will probably be fewer conflicts and disagreements in decisionmaking. The CNS and the caretaker government will reach a consensus more easily.
5. What heroic role did General Surayud's grandfather play in Thai history?
His grandfather fought and died in a royalist rebellion in 1933, the year after the overthrow of absolute monarchy in Thailand.
6. When did General Surayud become head of the army? Who appointed him?
Did he serve a relatively long or short time in this position?
He was appointed Army chief in 1998 by Chuan Leekpai, the prime minister. He served for four years which is longer than most generals serve in the position.
7. What were General Surayud's achievements while he was army chief?
He made several reforms:
a. Made the army more professional.
b. Downsized the army making it leaner. (this probably means fewer high ranking officers)
c. Reduced corruption by making weapons procurement more transparent.
8. Did General Surayud and Mr. Thaksin have any disagreements in the past?
Explain.
Yes, General Surayud was transferred to a less powerful post after a disagreement over how border problems with Burma should be dealt with.
9. Has General Surayud ever been a monk? When? Where?
Yes, after retirement he lived as a forest monk for three months "upcountry" which must mean that he lived as a monk in northern Thailand.
10. Does General Surayud have expertise in economics?
No.
11. Do foreigners have a good idea of who General Surayud is?
No, not yet, he does not have "instant international recognition" like Dr. Supachai does from serving as head of the WTO.
12. What approach to economic policymaking will he have to take?
He will have to rely on a "technocrat economic team," delegating responsibility for economic policy to an economics "czar".
13. What two balances will he have to strike in policy making?
a. He will have strike a balance between pleasing the junta (CNS) and allowing his cabinet members and economics team enough room to make appropriate policy decisions.
b. He will have to reconcile the deep divisions between pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin supporters.
14. What steps will he have to take to prevent a comeback by Mr. Thaksin?
To justify the coup and add legitimacy to his government, he will have to speed up the corruption investigations against Mr. Thaksin and his inner circle.
Of course, he will have to make sure that these investigations only take place in a legitimate fashion. As several commentators have noted, anti-corruption investigations after coups in Thailand have rarely resulted in much action being taken. Perhaps, this time will be an exception.
He will also have to prevent pro- and anti- Thaksin protests against the coup, but not by overreacting and causing injury or death which would put a blemish on the coup's perfect record to date. He also has to prevent pro- and anti- Thaksin sides from joining forces against the coup.
15 Besides the day-to-day responsibilities of governing the country, what two major responsibilities lie ahead for General Surayud?
a. He must oversee the drafting of a constitution.
b. He must hold a fair and clean election in about one year.
