"3G today is the way to go" for Thailand,
says leading industry analyst
By Jon Fernquest |
In this week's Database section of the Bangkok Post, reporter Don Sambandaraksa interviews leading mobile phone industry analyst Nathan Burley of the consulting firm Ovum on Thailand's mobile phone future.
This article sorts out some of the chaos and clutter surrounding different technologies and their potential use in Thailand.
3G will likely be the mobile standard for a long time to come in Thailand. 4G won't be a mature technology for another five years with dual mode devices in use until 2017 and 3G networks coming to an end around 2020, another 12 years. According to Burley:
...we can expect to see 3G used for the last mile in many Asian markets with little fixed infrastructure. In developing countries, this will be a substitute for a fixed line to the home. In more developed markets, 3G will provide the last mile direct to PC or laptop."I think the best thing for Thailand is to embrace 3G and do it quickly. If you wait for LTE, you are going to be sitting around for five years, which would be absolutely ridiculous"
Young Japanese woman making calls on her many 3G mobile phones, on the right.
Here is the article in full:
MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS
AIS takes a gamble with WCDMA 900, says Ovum
DON SAMBANDARAKSAWednesday April 30, 2008
AIS is taking a huge bet on WCDMA 900 which today lacks the devices compared to the other "alternative" 3G frequency, WCDMA 850, to be used by rivals Dtac. 850 has many more devices available today and is widely deployed in Australia and the Americas, according to a leading industry analyst.
Ovum analyst Nathan Burley, when asked about the relative strengths of 850 vs 900, said that while many in Europe were talking about reusing GSM900 spectrum for WCDMA, nobody was doing it yet and only one handset, by Nokia, was available on the market when last surveyed. In the long term, many European operators are hoping to deploy 2100/900 networks, but it would still be two or three years before these dual-band 3G handsets became the norm.
However, 850 was much more mature and has already been deployed in the Americas and in the region with many more devices available today. In the short term, there was much more potential with 850, he said.
But in the case of Thailand, Burley said that the market dynamics meant that even with an availability advantage, it was much harder for anyone to go up against market leaders AIS.
Asked about the argument that perhaps Thailand should skip 3G, Burley said that it was the "losers" in the 3G battle, Nortel and Motorola, that had repositioned themselves around 4G OFDMA offerings of WiMAX and LTE and had sold off their 3G business. Meanwhile, vendors like Ericsson were reaping the rewards of 3G today.
Unlike some others, Ovum believes that investing in 3G today is the way to go. 4G is coming quickly and Verizon and NTT DoCoMo are talking about 2010. Ovum believes that it will be late 2010 or more likely 2011 before the first devices become available and it will not be until 2012 or 2013 before the technology matures and there is take-up in advanced markets.
Most devices will be dual mode until 2017 and he does not see WCDMA networks being turned off until 2020 at the earliest. Selecting 4G and being on the cutting edge of LTE, on the other hand, would mean very expensive networks which may not be standardised. This is what happened in Japan with 3G.
Asked about WiMAX, Burley said that today there was a spectrum with Intel on one end and Ericsson on the other. "We are here," he said, pointing towards Ericsson.
"Mobile WiMAX will be confined to niche applications and ADSL substitution. We see 3G technologies and subsequent evolutions providing most mobile broadband services," he predicted.
Burley says we can expect to see 3G used for the last mile in many Asian markets with little fixed infrastructure. In developing countries, this will be a substitute for a fixed line to the home. In more developed markets, 3G will provide the last mile direct to PC or laptop.
"I think the best thing for Thailand is to embrace 3G and do it quickly. If you wait for LTE, you are going to be sitting around for five years, which would be absolutely ridiculous," he said.
So, does Burley agree with Qualcomm's comments that WiMAX's implementation of OFDMA is not up to scratch? He explained Qualcomm's argument without making a judgement.
"They would argue that WiMAX comes from a fixed background. It uses, DOCSIS, a cable networking standard as a means for signalling and communication. Qualcomm would argue that this technology is far inferior as it broadcasts the same information to all devices. It does not care if they are close to the cell or far away. 3G and LTE have much more sophisticated techniques that allow for better use of bandwidth.
"The other point is TDD (time division duplexing) versus FDD (frequency division duplexing). Mobile WiMAX is a TDD technology which makes it harder and more power intensive to transmit.
"With LTE, what they have done is that while the downlink is OFDMA, the uplink uses a different protocol. This FDD type protocol uses less power. They argue that this is a big differentiator," he explained, but stressing that this was Qualcomm's argument and not Ovum's.
So where does Intel fit in this picture since surely, with the backing of this giant, WiMAX will inevitably succeed in steamrolling over the rest of the industry? Burley disagrees.
He explained that Intel likes to sell chips and that it wanted to move beyond selling to desktops and laptops into something with greater reach. However, the mobile market was not one it could just enter due to IP issues, so the idea was for a different wireless standard to help them not just to compete, but to differentiate.
"They tried to do this with WiMAX. The original vision sets a new mobile standard for the world for which they can sell chips.
"However, things have not developed as fast as Intel would have liked. Time frames have slipped and certification continues to be an issue, while in the background, the 3GPP guys have got on their bike to drive HSPA and will get on their bike with LTE as well.
"Intel has changed its position too. Initially, it was 'take over the world'. Now it is all about being complimentary: '3G is great for voice, but for data you will use Mobile WiMAX'."
(Source: Bangkok Post, Database section, page D3, 30-04-08, temp-link)
Vocabulary:
Technology vocabulary:
Ovum - an IT consulting firm specialising in convergence across telecoms, IT services and software (See profile at website)
3G (third generation) - the next generation of mobile phone technology, featuring high-speed packet data mobile wireless Internet access and multimedia communication, analog cellular was the first generation and digital the second generation (See Telus glossary)
a 3G frequency - part of the spectrum used for 3G mobile phone connections
3G used for the last mile - instead of installing traditional wire telephone lines to houses, 3G could be used because it is fast enough
spectrum - the range of electromagnetic radio frequencies used in the transmission of sound, data and video, the potential capacity of a wireless network is in part a function of the amount of spectrum licensed to the carrier (See Telus glossary and Wikipedia)
reusing GSM900 spectrum for WCDMA - the government reassigns part of the spectrum to a different use
bandwidth - indicates amount of information that can be carried over a connection (difference between the top and bottom frequencies of a continuous frequency band)
better use of bandwidth - more information carried carried over the same allocated frequencies
a frequency band - a range of frequencies assigned for transmitting radio or television signals (three main frequency bands are used for satellite communications: C band, Ku band and Ka band, these bands, designation letters and their associated frequencies are determined and allocated by the ITU)
dual-band - dual band mobile phones support two frequency bands, with possible benefits: 1. better coverage in the one country, 2. roaming between different countries (See Wikipedia)
WiMax - a wireless technology that provides high-throughput broadband connections over long distances, can be used for last mile broadband connections, Hotspots, cellular backhall and high-speed enterprise connectivity (See Telus glossary)
a hotspot - a wireless access point in a public place such as a cafe, train station, airport, commercial office property or conference centre
WCDMA - a type of 3G mobile phone network, currently used in Japan, the next step from the 2G GSM networks used worldwide (See Wikipedia)
ADSL (asymmetric digital subscriber line) - a technology for transmitting digital information at a high bandwidth on existing phone lines, unlike dial-up Internet service ADSL provides continuously available connectivity (See Telus Glossary)
fixed line telephone - the traditional wire telephone
the last mile - the last mile of wire to your fixed line telephone at home or work
Asian markets with little fixed infrastructure - rural areas in Asia often do not have telephone lines or
X is a substitute for - X can be used instead of Y, X can replace Y
X complements Y, X is a complimentary good or service to Y - X can be used in addition to Y to add value (for example, baby powder is a complementary good to baby diapers)
substitute for a fixed line to the home - replaces a fixed line to the home
a standard - an official public specification that everyone in an industry can use so that their equipment can work together
specifications - a detailed plan about how something is to be made or done
standards bodies - the committees of experts that create standards
computing and telecommunications industry standards - specifications used by all manufacturers and software companies in the industry to ensure different devices and systems can talk to each other and are interchangable
certification - official declaration that standards have been met
a more mature technology - a more developed technology
deploy - use (more accurately: prepare a resource so that it is ready to be used; See glossary)
widely deployed - widely used
take up - people starting to use a new product offering
advanced markets - markets with new advanced technology
dual mode - can be used two different ways (for example, a mobile phone can be used for GMS or for 3G WCDMA)<>
devices will be dual mode - mobile phones can be used for GMS as they are now or for special 3G service
being on the cutting edge - using the most advanced technology
niche applications - specialised uses
General Vocabulary
sort out chaos - take action to reduce chaos and create order
clutter - a lot of things spread around in an untidy mess (for example, there was a lot of clutter on her desk because she never organised her things)
sitting around - waiting, not doing anything
became the norm - became what people normally used or did
go up against - compete against (someone larger than you)
go up against market leaders - compete with the most powerful companies in the industry
positioning - associating the product with certain features and images in the mind of customers
repositioned - changing what customers believe about your product
reaping the rewards of - gain or profit from making a good decision
embrace - accept, support, and believe in a new idea or system (See glossary)
implementation - the execution of a plan, the actual doing of a plan
not up to scratch - not good enough
differentiate - make different from others (See glossary)
differentiator - something that makes it different from others
the backing of this giant - the support and help of this large company
steam roller - heavy construction machinery used for flattening and levelling surfaces such as roads or airfields, powered by a steam engine (See Wikipedia)
steamrolling over the rest of the industry - destroying (a steamroller flattens anything it rolls over)
time frames - the length of time during which an event happens or develops (See glossary)
got on their bike to drive HSPA - took an active role in making HSPA happen
