World Bank's Global Economic Prospects 2010 report released
By Jon Fernquest
The
World
Bank
released its report on the global economy this week (Download
for free). Award-winning Bangkok Post reporter Parista Yuthamanop discusses how findings in the report are relevant for Thailand and the rest of Asia:
prospects - what
might happen in the future
World Bank - a bank that loans money to poor countries around the world with the goal of reducing poverty (See Wikipedia)
findings - what has been decided or concluded after a study or research
World Bank - a bank that loans money to poor countries around the world with the goal of reducing poverty (See Wikipedia)
findings - what has been decided or concluded after a study or research
Economics
World Bank tells Asia to shift tack
Parista Yuthamanop22/01/2010
Region advised to focus on longer term.
Developing countries should begin shifting policies away from short-term economic stimulus to more medium-term priorities as global demand is likely to be lower than pre-crisis levels, according to the World Bank
The global economic recovery will be subdued over the next two years, as countries begin winding down their stimulus programmes and the inventory cycle wanes.
shift - change
shift tack - change direction, change policy
stimulus - a set of programmes, especially government spending programmes, designed to start an economy growing again แผนกระตุ้นหรือฟื้นฟูเศรษฐกิจ
medium-term - over the next 2 to 10 years in the future
global - throughout the world ทั่วโลก
global demand - all the goods and services that people around the world want or need to buy
crisis - an urgent, difficult or dangerous situation วิกฤต
pre-crisis - before the recent economic crisis
recovery - the process of becoming normal and healthy again ฟื้นฟูสภาพ
subdued - quiet, not very active
inventory - the products by a business, kept in a shop, warehouse, etc., in this case, unsold cars สินค้าที่จัดเก็บในสต๊อก
inventory cycle - the level of inventories kept by businesses moves with the business cycle, businesses stop producing and let their inventories run down during bad economic times (some economists say that production and employment cannot fully recover until inventories fall)
the business cycle - the way economies go up and down with bad economic times with low incomes being followed by good times with high incomes and so on, repeated over and over again
inventory cycle wanes - the overall level of inventories kept by businesses in the economy falls
shift tack - change direction, change policy
stimulus - a set of programmes, especially government spending programmes, designed to start an economy growing again แผนกระตุ้นหรือฟื้นฟูเศรษฐกิจ
medium-term - over the next 2 to 10 years in the future
global - throughout the world ทั่วโลก
global demand - all the goods and services that people around the world want or need to buy
crisis - an urgent, difficult or dangerous situation วิกฤต
pre-crisis - before the recent economic crisis
recovery - the process of becoming normal and healthy again ฟื้นฟูสภาพ
subdued - quiet, not very active
inventory - the products by a business, kept in a shop, warehouse, etc., in this case, unsold cars สินค้าที่จัดเก็บในสต๊อก
inventory cycle - the level of inventories kept by businesses moves with the business cycle, businesses stop producing and let their inventories run down during bad economic times (some economists say that production and employment cannot fully recover until inventories fall)
the business cycle - the way economies go up and down with bad economic times with low incomes being followed by good times with high incomes and so on, repeated over and over again
inventory cycle wanes - the overall level of inventories kept by businesses in the economy falls
Consumption and bank lending will also be subdued as households and financial institutions rebuild their balance sheets, the bank said in its "Global Economic Prospects 2010" report
Hans Timmer, the director for the World Bank's Development Prospects Group, said global economic growth over the next few years is unlikely to be sufficient to absorb the loss in jobs and productivity from the 2009 recession
lending
- giving money to someone who agrees to pay it back in the future
การให้ยืม
institutions - large and important organizations, such as universities or banks สถาบัน
financial institutions - banks (and other companies that operate like banks)
unlikely - not expected to happen; probably won't happen ที่ไม่น่าจะเกิดขึ้น
sufficient - enough เพียงพอ
absorb - to take in a liquid, gas or other substance form the surface or space around ซึมซับ ดูดกลืน
recession - a period when trade and industry are not successful and there is a lot of unemployment ภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย
institutions - large and important organizations, such as universities or banks สถาบัน
financial institutions - banks (and other companies that operate like banks)
unlikely - not expected to happen; probably won't happen ที่ไม่น่าจะเกิดขึ้น
sufficient - enough เพียงพอ
absorb - to take in a liquid, gas or other substance form the surface or space around ซึมซับ ดูดกลืน
recession - a period when trade and industry are not successful and there is a lot of unemployment ภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย
The World Bank projects global economic growth of 2.7% this year and 3.2% in 2011, compared with a decline of 2.2% in 2009
The banking crisis would curb new lending, affecting demand. The soft recovery and the depth of the recession would also result in huge excess capacity and high unemployment
For developing countries, China would be the main growth engine, thanks to its continued economic expansion and productivity gains over the past decade. The World Bank projects the East Asia and Pacific region to grow 8.1% in 2010, compared with 6.8% last year
curb
- to control or limit something that is harmful จำกัดขอบเขต
soft recovery - not a strong recovery (many problems such as unemployment and reduced consumption still remain)
depth of the recovery - how serious the recession is (much damage it does to businesses and personal incomes)
depth - the distance down either from the top of something to the bottom, or to a distance below the top surface of something ความลึก
excess - greater than is usual; too much of something มากเกินปริมาณที่พอดี
capacity - the amount of something that can be produced ความสามารถในการ (ผลิต)
expansion - when something increases in size, number or importance การขยายออก
decade - a period of ten years ทศวรรษ, ระยะเวลา 10 ปี
soft recovery - not a strong recovery (many problems such as unemployment and reduced consumption still remain)
depth of the recovery - how serious the recession is (much damage it does to businesses and personal incomes)
depth - the distance down either from the top of something to the bottom, or to a distance below the top surface of something ความลึก
excess - greater than is usual; too much of something มากเกินปริมาณที่พอดี
capacity - the amount of something that can be produced ความสามารถในการ (ผลิต)
expansion - when something increases in size, number or importance การขยายออก
decade - a period of ten years ทศวรรษ, ระยะเวลา 10 ปี
China is important to the world's exports, with a smaller share [of exports] but a much higher growth rate," Mr Timmer said. "The benefit of China's productivity comes in the form of lower product prices as they can produce at cheaper costs
The World Bank expects the Chinese economy to grow 8% this year, compared with 6.8% in 2009. More developed countries such as the US and Japan would post more modest growth of 1.8% in 2010 and 2% in 2011, compared with a contraction of 3.3% last year
smaller
share of exports - smaller part or percentage of
exports
rate - the level or speed at which something happens or changes, or the amount or number of times it happens or changes in a particular period อัตรา
benefit - a good thing or advantage you get from something ผลประโยชน์
productivity - how much is produced with a given fixed level of resources (labour, machines, land)
modest - not large in size or amount ไม่มากมาย
modest growth - growth that is not large
post more modest growth - record growth statistics that are not as large as before
contraction - a shortened form of a word or combination of words which is often used instead of the full form in spoken English คำย่อ
rate - the level or speed at which something happens or changes, or the amount or number of times it happens or changes in a particular period อัตรา
benefit - a good thing or advantage you get from something ผลประโยชน์
productivity - how much is produced with a given fixed level of resources (labour, machines, land)
modest - not large in size or amount ไม่มากมาย
modest growth - growth that is not large
post more modest growth - record growth statistics that are not as large as before
contraction - a shortened form of a word or combination of words which is often used instead of the full form in spoken English คำย่อ
Mr Timmer said the global economy would need a certain period of high growth to strengthen economic fundamentals. He estimated Asian developing economies would need annual growth of 6% to 6.5% to help absorb new workers entering the labour force and support productivity gains
The World Bank advises Asian countries to shift their policies more toward productivity improvements, including financial sector reforms
Mr Timmer noted that the cost of borrowing in the international market was "too low, for too long" in the years leading to the crisis, and that costs would increase in the future
annual
- happening once a year ประจำปี
sector - a part of a country's economy or business activity ภาคเศรษฐกิจของประเทศ
sector - a part of a country's economy or business activity ภาคเศรษฐกิจของประเทศ
Asian economies are likely to tighten bank regulations to safeguard against destabilising capital flows. At the same time, bank competition should be allowed to increase to help reduce borrowing costs for small and medium-sized companies
regulations
- official rules that control the way things are done ระเบียบ ข้อบังคับ
safeguard - protect from danger
capital - money invested in businesses
capital flows - investment money coming into and going out of a country from other countries
destabilising capital flows - investment money from other countries that can hurt an economy (why? sudden large inflows and outflows can lead to large exchange rate changes and changes in capital availability which makes it difficult to plan for the future in a business)
safeguard - protect from danger
capital - money invested in businesses
capital flows - investment money coming into and going out of a country from other countries
destabilising capital flows - investment money from other countries that can hurt an economy (why? sudden large inflows and outflows can lead to large exchange rate changes and changes in capital availability which makes it difficult to plan for the future in a business)
Thai exports to China rose to a 17-month high in December with year-on-year growth of 26%, helping reduce the overall decline in exports last year to 14% compared with a 23% year-on-year drop in the first half.
The World Bank projects Thai economic growth this year of 3.5%, rising to 4% in 2011, compared with a contraction of 2.7% last year
But business executives are concerned that the appreciation of the baht and the slow resolution of the Map Ta Phut case could impede growth
year-on-year - this
year compared to last year during the same month
contraction - growing smaller, shrinking
concerned - worried about something มีความกังวล
resolution - solving a problem
impede - prevent or stop something from happening
contraction - growing smaller, shrinking
concerned - worried about something มีความกังวล
resolution - solving a problem
impede - prevent or stop something from happening
Pongsak Assakul, a vice-chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the Map Ta Phut case may push investors to relocate to other Asean countries, particularly given the similar tax benefits gained under the Asean Free Trade Area
Map Ta Phut, Map Ta Phut Industrial Estate - one
of Thailand's largest industrial estates located in Rayong
(See interactive
map)
industrial park, industrial estate - a special area especially for factories with special facilities (roads, transportation, water, electricity, waste disposal) (See Wikipedia)
relocate - to move someone or something to another place โยกย้ายประชาชนออกจากบริเวณ
relocate - to move someone or something to another place โยกย้ายประชาชนออกจากบริเวณ
particularly - especially, or more than usual โดยเฉพาะ
given - because of a particular fact
industrial park, industrial estate - a special area especially for factories with special facilities (roads, transportation, water, electricity, waste disposal) (See Wikipedia)
relocate - to move someone or something to another place โยกย้ายประชาชนออกจากบริเวณ
relocate - to move someone or something to another place โยกย้ายประชาชนออกจากบริเวณ
particularly - especially, or more than usual โดยเฉพาะ
given - because of a particular fact
(Source: World Bank tells Asia to shift tack, Parista Yuthamanop, 22/01/2010, link)
