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[Thai Economics Library | Archives| Currency Crisis 2007| Entrepreneurs]
March 31, 2009

stiglitz

All countries need to participate in recovery:
Stiglitz commission outlines big issues before G20 Summit

By Jon Fernquest

G20 London Summit The G20 Summit starts this week in London.

The G20 Summit is a meeting of representatives of 20 of the world's richest and emerging economies.

This meeting promises to be an important historical watershed. The situation that the world now faces is historically one of the worst ever:

The financial crisis that began in America's sub-prime mortgage market has now become a global recession – with growth projected to be a negative 1.5%, the worst performance since the Great Depression. Even countries that had done everything right are seeing marked declines in growth rates, and even deep recessions. And much of the most acute pain will be felt by developing countries.

Following the trend of export dependent Asian economies, Thailand's exports and industrial production have plunged in recent months by as much as 50% (Read article).

G20 - the group of 20 major economies from around the world (See Wikipedia)
G20 Summit,
G-20 Leaders' Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy - the meeting starting this week on finding solutions to the economic crisis (See website and Wikipedia)
promises to be Y -
will probably to be Y
a watershed -
a very important event (that is a turning point and beginning of a new stage)
projected - what people believe it will in the future
acute pain - pain fely suddenly and sharply (not 'chronic' over a long period of time)
export dependent Asian economies - Asian economies that have used a strategy of exports to build national wealth, growth, and development
industrial production - manufactured goods made by factories in the country

ASEAN Priorities

Prime Minister Abhisit will be representing ASEAN at the G20 Summit since he is currently serving as ASEAN chairman. He plans to address four main priority issues:

1. A call for coordination of monetary and fiscal policies
2. The need to fight against trade protectionism
3. The need to arrange financial assistance for countries in need (foreign aid)
4. A call for the reform of international financial institutions

Japan has already began to provide foreign aid that will assist Thailand's fiscal policy.

Yesterday, Japan's Office of Development Assistance (ODA) agreed to provide 23 billion baht in financing for a new urban mass transit route. The red line will run from Bang Sue to Rangsit and will link central Bangkok with northern Bangkok. The line will consist of 26 kilometers of track with eight stations (Read story).

a priority - an important thing that must be done before  other things
coordination -
working together to achieve goals (making your help others too)
monetary policy - actions taken by the central bank of a country to increase or decrease the supply of money and credit in an economy, by setting interest rates, and buying and selling in bond and foreign exchange markets (See Wikipedia)
fiscal policy - government economic policy that uses taxes and spending programmes to speed up or slow down the economy (See Wikipedia)
trade protectionism, protectionism - the economic policy of restraining trade between nations, through methods such as tariffs on imported goods, restrictive quotas, and a variety of other restrictive government regulations designed to discourage imports, and prevent foreign take-over of local markets and companies (See Wikipedia)
foreign aid - money given by rich countries to help poorer countries (See Wikipedia)
reform - change to improve 
international financial institutions - large organisations like the IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank (ADB) that provide services to many different countries

World viewpoints on crisis policy

In different parts of the world different viewpoints have emerged on the most appropriate policy response to the crisis.

Fiscal stimulus and bail outs of banks and insurance companies has been the main part of the US response to the crisis so far.

The European response has focused much more on the regulation of financeSocial safety nets already in place in Europe have cushioned the negative effects of unemployment and already provided some automatic counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus (Read article).

The Asian response can be seen in Prime Minister Abhisit's priorities and were also expressed very well in an important UN report released this week by the so-called Stiglitz Commission. The details of this report are reviewed below.

Hopefully a consensus between different viewpoints will be forged at the G20 meeting.

viewpoints - opinions and beliefs about some issue 
emerged -
come into being
appropriate -
suitable, fit and good for the situation
fiscal stimulus - either tax cuts or temporary government spending programmes to get the economy moving and growing again
bail outs - giving money to a company or bank that is going to fail (if it does not receive help)
regulation of finance - setting rules to control finance and make it safer in the future
social safety nets - government run programmes to make sure that people who lose their job still receive the essentials of life (housing, clothing, food, education)
in place - exists, established, have been created already
cushioned - made  softer, lessened the damage and harm from something
counter-cyclical - against the business cycle
consensus - general agreement on an issue among a group of people
forge - create
forge a consensus -  try to get most of the people in a group to agree to something

Stiglitz Commission Report

All of the four issues highlighted by Prime Minister Abhisit listed above were address by the UN Stiglitz Commission that just produced its preliminary report last week (Read report). In short: 

The Stiglitz Commission says that short term measures must ensure the protection of the world’s poor, while long term measures must ensure sustainable financing to strengthen the policy response of developing countries. Recovery requires a truly inclusive response, with the participation of all countries (Source: Norman Girvan).

Stiglitz shared his thoughts on the commission's findings in an op-ed piece at the Guardian in the UK (Read article):

"A UN commission of experts on reforms of the international monetary and financial system, which I chair, has just published its preliminary report. It focuses especially on the impact of the crisis on developing countries and the poor everywhere, which is likely to be severe. An estimated 30 million more people will be unemployed in 2009 compared to 2007. The increase could even reach 50 million. Progress in reducing poverty may be halted. The report warns that: "Some 200 million people, mostly in developing economies, could be pushed into poverty if rapid action is not taken to counter the impact of the crisis."

Some doubt the practicality of Stiglitz's ideas calling them "iconoclastic" or commenting: "it isn't going to work" (See Business Week).

shared his thoughts on Y - made his opinions publicly available to others
findings - the results or conclusions of an investigation or research
op-ed piece - a newspaper article expressing a writer's own opinion, not that of the newspaper  (See Wikipedia)
practicality - whether some plan will work and be successful
iconoclastic - criticizing beliefs generally accepted by society (but which may be wrong)

Against protectionism

Stiglitz:

"While this is a global crisis, responses are undertaken by national governments, who quite naturally look after their own citizens' interest first. Particularly invidious are protectionist measures, such as the US "buy America" provision in its stimulus package. In fact, the World Bank reports that 17 of the group of 20 countries have engaged in protectionist measures, after making a commitment not to do so in their meeting in Washington in November. By focusing on national, as opposed to global impacts, the global stimulus will be less – and the global recovery weakened.

responses, policy responses
- actions taken by a government to solve a problem  
undertaken - done
naturally Y - Y is normal and not surprising
invidious - unpleasant and makes you unpopular
particularly invidious - especially or very
protectionist measures -
provision - one detail or item in a law, agreement, or plan 
have engaged in Y - have done  Y
a commitment - a promise
impacts - effects on different people and things
recovery - when the economy gets better

Policy coordination

Stiglitz:

"While there is a consensus that all countries should undertake strong fiscal stimulus measures, many developing countries do not have the resources, and it calls for a concerted approach for additional funding, both for spending and liquidity support for countries and corporations in developing countries that are strained by the current credit crunch. Developed countries should contribute 1% of stimulus spending; there should be an immediate issue of special drawing rights (SDRs), the "IMF money" that can be used especially to help those facing difficulties, and an expansion of regional efforts, such as the Chang Mai initiative in Asia.

"It is important that any assistance be provided without the usual strings. Conditions such as those which force developing countries to contract spending and raise interest rates are counterproductive: the intent of the assistance is to help them expand their economies, thereby assisting the global recovery. Deficiencies in current institutional arrangements for disbursing funds – for example, through the IMF – have long been noted, but the reforms so far are insufficient. Countries with funds are often reluctant to give money to institutions in which they have little voice, and which have advocated policies that they do not support; and countries are often reluctant to borrow, given the stigma associated with turning to these institutions. The commission urges the creation of a new credit facility, in which the voice of the new providers of finance and the borrowers are both better heard.

fiscal stimulus -
cutting taxes or increasing spending on government programmes
measures - actions taken to achieve a goal
have the resources [necessary for a fiscal stimulus programme] - have enough government money to spend to actually stimulate the economy and get it moving again 
concerted approach - working together to solve a problem
funding - the money you get to support a project
spending and liquidity support - helping with loans so that government spending to stimulate the economy can be made and also so that foreign exchange is sufficient to avoid destructive depreciation of currency like Thai baht in 1997
strained - being put under pressure, business has become more difficult
credit crunch - a period of time when it is difficult for businesses to get loans
special drawing rights (SDRs) - IMF money or more technically: "potential claims on the freely usable currencies of International Monetary Fund members" (See Wikipedia)
Chiang Mai Initiative - an arrangement of currency swaps between Asian states to help each other out when they have liquidity difficulties, began in 2000 (See previous article)
given with strings attached - given with conditions that must be met (only get it if you meet the conditions)
without the usual strings [attached] - without the usual conditions
contract spending - reduce government spending (a contractionary fiscal policy that leads to slower growth) 
raise interest rates - central bank reduces supply of money and credit (a contractionary fiscal policy that leads to slower growth) 
counterproductive - some action that makes the situation worse, not better
deficiencies - things that could be better
institutional arrangements for Y - the way organisations are set up to achieve goal Y
disbursing funds  - when the government gives the money budgeted to different departments
reforms - improvements in the way that government works
insufficient - not enough
have little voice - their opinion is not heard and taken seriously
advocate - recommend publicly
advocated policies -  policies that are recommended publicly
reluctant - do not want to do something (so are slow, hesitate, or do without enthusiasm)
reluctant to borrow -  don't want to borrow
stigma - something that embarasses you, makes you ashamed
stigma associated with turning to these institutions - when money is borrowed from the IMF it is embarassing, because everyone realises you have a problem
credit facility - an arrangement for borrowing money

Better regulation

Stiglitz:
 
"There are several important lessons to be learned from the crisis. One is that there is a need for better regulation. But reforms cannot be just cosmetic, and they have to go beyond the financial sector. Inadequate enforcement of competition laws has allowed banks to grow to be too big to fail. Inadequate corporate governance resulted in incentive schemes that led to excessive risk taking and short sighted behavior, which did not even serve shareholders well.

"The Commission recommends the establishment of a Global Economic Coordinating Council, not only to co-ordinate economic policy, but to assess the economic situation, identify gaps in the global institutional arrangement, and propose solutions. For instance, there is a need for a Global Financial Regulatory Authority – without which there is a risk of regulatory arbitrage, undermining regulation, and creating a race to the bottom. There is a need for a Global Competition Authority – markets are global in scale. There is a need for a better way of handling defaults of countries, of which there may be several in this crisis. And there is a need for better ways of managing the many risks that developing countries face, especially with debt and capital account management.

"The other important commission recommendation concerns the creation of a new global reserve system. The existing system, with the US dollar as reserve currency, is fraying. The dollar has been volatile. There are increasing worries about future inflationary risks. At the same time, putting so much money aside every year to protect countries against the risks of global instability creates a downward bias in – aggregate demand – weakening the global economy. Moreover, the system has the peculiar property that poor countries are lending trillions of dollars to the US, at essentially zero interest rate, while within their country there are so many needs to which the money could be put. The Commission argues that a new Global Reserve System is "feasible, non-inflationary, and could be easily implemented".

"After the East Asia crisis, there was much talk of reform, of a new global financial architecture. But there was just talk; as the global economy recovered, the impetus for reform faded. This is a more severe crisis. It will last longer. Hopefully, this time, we learn our lesson."

Joseph E Stiglitz is university professor at Columbia University, chairman of the UN Commission of Experts on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System and recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics
josephstiglitz.com


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