Global economic cooperation and anti-protectionism
Crucial in run-up to G20
Summit
By Jon Fernquest
[Update:
Harvard economist Dani
Rodrik has written on the similarities between the upcoming
G20 Summit and the 1933 London Economic Conference in his blog, read article]The coming G20 summit in London may turn out to be a watershed event for the global economy.
The summit is still a month away but many important summit accomplishments are occuring in the run up to the summit.
The dangers of protectionism are a major concern.
Protectionism was foremost on Prime Minister Abhisit's agenda in discussions with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown last week.
There is also evidence that protectionism has also started to increase a little bit recently. A full 17 of the 20 members of the G20 have erected 47 new trade-restricting measures since November when the members of the G20 pledged not to do this.
A new World Bank report details these new restrictions but argues that they have only had a very small effect on trade:
“To the extent that the industry is laden with excess capacity, these subsidies impede exit and delay adjustment,” the report said. “Even worse, subsidies may be linked to requirements” forcing companies to preserve domestic employment, “even at the cost of shutting more efficient plants abroad in developing countries.”
Subsidies to prop up the auto sector amount to $48 billion, with high-income countries accounting for $43 billion of that, including $17.4 billion in the U.S. alone (Source: World Bank report also see WSJ Realtime Economics via Economist's View).
protectionism - the economic policy of restricting trade between countries using tariffs on imported goods, quota limits on imports, and other restrictive regulationsto discourage imports and prevent foreign take-over of local markets and companies (See Wikipedia)
anti-protectionism - being against protectionism and protectionist government policies
major concern - an issue that many people worry about and think is important
crucial - important
run up to Y - the period before a big event happens (during the preparation for the event)
a summit - a meeting at which the leaders of countries discuss important issues
G20, Group of 20 - a group of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 economies: 19 of the world's largest national economies, plus the European Union (EU). It also met once at heads-of-government level, in November 2008. Collectively, the G-20 economies comprise 85% of global gross national product, 80% of world trade (including EU intra-trade) and two-thirds of the world population (See Wikipedia)
G20 summit, 2009 London G20 Summit - an important meeting between international leaders to deal with the global economic crisis (the G-20 Leaders' Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy is scheduled to take place on April 2, 2009. It follows the first G-20 Leaders Summit, that took place in Washington D.C. on November 14-15, 2008) (See Wikipedia)
a watershed event - an important event representing a new stage in history
accomplishments - important things that have been done or achieved
subsidies - part of the cost of something paid by government to support and encourage something
relied exclusively on subsidies -
capacity - the resources (machines, factories, equipment) necessaryu to produce goods
excess capacity - more resources than you need (can't use or consume everything you could produce)
impede exit - prevent failing companies from failing and leaving the industry (thus making room for new more efficient companies)
delay adjustment - make change occur more slowly
prop up - support, keep from failing
Economic cooperation highest priority
Hopefully, greater global economic cooperation will result from the G20 summit.Economic cooperation between countries is now the highest priority according to UC Berkeley economic historian of the Great Depression Barry Eichengreen.
Eichengreen lists a frightening series of similarities between recent events and events before the Great Depression when economic cooperation broke down (Read article).
One parallel Eichengreen makes is between the failed London Economic Conference of 1933 and upcoming G20 summit: "We have the prospect of a failed world economic conference in London to dash remaining hopes for a co-operative response, just as in 1933" (Photo on right from the London Economic Conference of 1933; read article)
Beggar-they-neighbor trade policies
In Asia there has been talk of currency depreciation to make goods cheaper and boost exports. The trouble is that when one country does it, every country will soon want to do it.This sort of "beggar-thy-neighbor trade policy" was denounced this week in a recommendation by Asian economists:
Eichengreen describes what happens when every country tries to depreciate their currency at the same to boost exports:
...the dreaded spectre of competitive devaluation. In the 1930s, one country after another pushed down its exchange rate in a desperate effort to export its way out of depression. But each country's depreciation only aggravated the problems of its trading partners, who saw their own depressions deepen. Eventually even countries that valued currency stability were forced to respond in kind.
In the end competitive devaluation benefited no one, it is said, since all countries can't devalue their exchange rates against each another. The only effects were to fan political tensions, heighten exchange rate uncertainty, and upend the global trading system. Financial protectionism if you will.
Great Depression - a worldwide economic downturn starting in most places in 1929 and ending at different times in the 1930s or early 1940s for different countries. It was the largest and most important economic depression in the 20th century, and is used in the 21st century as an example of how far the world's economy can fall. The Great Depression originated in the United States; historians most often use as a starting date the stock market crash on October 29, 1929, known as Black Tuesday (See Wikipedia, also see causes)
cooperative (adjective) -
co-operative response -
similarities - features or parts that are the same when comparing two different things
a parallel between X and Y - a similarity between X and Y
prospect -
London Economic Conference of 1933 - an important conference during the Great Depression that failed to win international cooperation that could have helped in the economic recovery (See Wikipedia)
recovery, economic recovery - when the economy of a country improves after a recession or economic slowdown
dash hopes - destroy hopes (no longer expect or hope that something will happen)
dash remaining hopes - destroy the few hopes that you still have
Lessening Asia's dependence on exports
The Asian economists above were meeting at the Asian Policy Forum held by the Asian Development Bank Institute which brought together economists from Asian countries ahead of the G20 summit (Read report).The most important message coming out of this meeting is the need to find some way to lessen dependence on the export-driven growth paradigm that has fueled the growth of Asian economies for decades:
How can domestic and regional demand replace export demand from developed countries? Government spending in fiscal stimulus programmes can fuel demand for a while but not forever.
The answer may well lie in the "regional" part of the prescription. The EU benefited from increased economies of scale when barriers to trade, business, and employment were knocked down between European countries. Will the countries of ASEAN be able to integrate their economies and work together closely like the EU in the future? Integration with the economy of Yunnan, China in the north will also be crucial.
Asian Development Bank Institute - shares development knowledge, papers and economic information (See website)
a paradigm - a model that shows how something is produced
X-driven Y - Y makes X work, causes X to happen, keeps X going like a motor or engine
export-driven growth paradigm - wealth from export earnings has helped many Asian economies grow, especially Japan, South, Korea, and now China
promoting increased domestic and regional demand - causing more goods to be demanded within a country and its neighbors (region)
in the medium term - not the short-term or the long-term, in-between (maybe two to ten years in the future)
an engine of growth - the thing that causes growth within a country
facilitate a shift toward inclusive, sustainable growth driven by regional demand
economies of scale - (See Wikipedia)
China-US economic cooperation
The Chinese and US economy have reached the point where they are completely dependent on each other. They are effectively married for better or worse.On the US side, the US financial sector is dependent on Chinese savings, loans, and investment in the US economy. China foreign exchange reserves are heavily invested in US government debt (T-Bills). These help support interest rates much lower than they would otherwise be.
On China's side, China is completely dependent on exports to the US to maintain high rates of economic growth.
Nials Ferguson calls this tight relationship "Chimerica" Chi[na-Am]erican, the two countries are one country economically.
Despite the urgent need for cooperation, some people in each country, America and China, try to blame this dependence on the other side which is dangerous, as John Berry at Bloomberg points out:
Of course, that likely would drive down the value of the dollar, push up U.S. interest rates and cause huge losses in China’s $700 billion portfolio of Treasuries.
The reality is that Wen and China are stuck. They have no viable alternative so long as China continues to accumulate large amounts of foreign currencies as a result of its big trade surplus. ... [C]ontinuation of a big trade surplus is ... critical to China (Source: John Berry at Bloomberg via Economist's View)
In short, continued investment of Chinese savings in the US financial sector is the only real way to maintain the value of this investment.
The "Bretton Woods II" big picture
Finally, its worth zooming out from day-to-day news articles and get the "big picture" of what has been happening in the global economy before the recent crisis.Economists use the term "Bretton Woods II" for changes in the international monetary system after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
One extremely good summary of these events is available for free from New Zealand's central bank (Read article).
The summary from this paper, although using rather abstract vocabulary captures the essence of hat happened well:
The development of the imbalances can be explained by financial underdevelopment in many emerging markets, together with particular savings and investment dynamics across the surplus and deficit countries. These factors established ‘Bretton Woods II’, a global macro-financial dynamic that tied the deficit and surplus economies together in a co-dependent relationship. The current credit crisis appears to mark the limits of this relationship. However, the precise nature of any subsequent adjustment is not immediately clear.
adverse - have a negative effect
sharp and adverse financial shock - have a sudden negative effect on the economy
re-pricing of risk - changing of interest rates, because risk and danger has changed
cost of funds - the cost of borrowing money, interest rates
X, the consequence of Y - X happens because Y happened
unsustainable - cannot continue to exist over long periods of time in the future
external imbalances - things outside the country that are not in balance
current account surpluses - when a country exports more than it imports
current account deficits (CADs) - when a country imports more than it exports
unsustainable cheapening of credit - interest rates were so low they couldn't stay that way forever (money being loaned out for uses that couldn't support themselves in the long-run)
risk-seeking behaviour by financial markets - looking for riskier investments to get higher returns (because interest rates and returns were in general so low)
financial underdevelopment -
savings and investment dynamics - the system that people in a country save and invest their money (in China a lot of money is invested through government "sovereign wealth funds")
Bretton Woods II -
co-dependent relationship - a person who is the friend of a drug addict or alchoholic who supports them in this activity, making life more and more difficult for both of them (See Wikipedia)
precise - exact and accurate in details
precise nature - exactly what it is, in detail
subsequent - happening afterwards
subsequent adjustment - the response and change that happens after something happens
not immediately clear - not easy to understand, at least without some thought







