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Larry Jagan on the gathering momentum of protests in Burma

By Jon Fernquest

[Introduction|Article]
[Reading Questions|Answers]

As protests in Burma start to gather steam after a long 20 year hiatus, the impetus for long-awaited change is coming from some unlikely sources.

For starters, monks are now firmly in the vanguard of the protests, striking the generals who have ruled the country for over forty years at a place that it is likely to hurt, religious beliefs and practices.

High-ranking military officers performing acts of Buddhist merit-making with donations to monks and pagodas have long been staples of state ritual and the state-controlled television news.

Over forty years of isolation since Ne Win's 1962 coup and over a decade of university closures after the last 1988 protests have made Buddhism more important than ever as an intellectual glue that holds Burmese society together.

With monasteries either shut down or guarded by soldiers, it will become more difficult to maintain the facade that the military actually supports the Buddhist religion instead of using it as ideological support to prop up a regime that, isolated from the world, long ago rotted inside.

Secondly and rather ironically, the not-exactly-democratic-themselves states of China and Russia may turn out to be the critical actors in the push for democracy in Burma. These two states might have the leeway to push for change because they have supported the generals in the past by vetoing UN votes against them.

Thirdly, just as simple economics started the protests after jumps in fuel and food prices, simple economics might well escalate the protests to a new and higher level of involvement by the same broad cross-section of society involved in the 1988 protests, drawing in students, civil servants, workers, as well as the monks.

Fourthly, well-organised activists outside the country have spearheaded the protests with a internet-based news organisation well-organised down to the grassroots level that reports news events to international audiences in a timely fashion as they unfold from what has to be ranked as one of least transparent countries on earth, news-wise, that is.

If western powers had not continued with ineffective economic sanctions for so long, if they had made more effort to de-isolate Burma and engage the country and its citizens in some meaningful interaction during the Cold War and after, western powers might have been left with more leverage in the end for driving change within Burma.

As it stands, they can only look on, uninvolved, from the outside, as China and Russia push for concessions that might finally result in some form of emergent democracy 20 years after 1988.

gather steam - start to move faster (like the steam engine of an old train)

hiatus - period without activity

an impetus - a push that sets events in motion

in the vanguard - fighting in the front

staples - important and essential parts

a facade - a false exterior

ironically - the opposite of what you'd expect

leeway - room to work in

vetoing - prevent a resolution that won a vote from taking effect

escalate - increase the intensity of conflict and confrontation

a cross-section of society - a group that contains people from all the different social and economic groups in society

spearheaded - lead, lead an effort to do something

leverage - ability to influence situations so that you can control what happens

Reading Questions

Here are some questions to guide your reading (See answers at end):

1. What was the recent turn of events that took the ruling junta in Burma by surprise?

2. When was the last time there were public protests of this size and magnitude in Burma?

3. Has the Burmese military government's usual response to public protests been effective this time?

4. How might the recent protests allow for some outside influence by other countries?

5. How long has the National Convention been deliberating?

6. What was the final product of the National Convention's deliberations?

7. When is "democracy" in Burma scheduled to begin?

8. What kind of "democracy" will Burma have under the draft constitution?

9. What were the events that started the protests?

10. Where are the protests happening?

11. How has the government sought to end the protests?

12. When and where did monks start participating in the protests?

13. How has the government cracked down on the monk protests?

14. What sorts of sectors of society would true mass protests involve?

15. What events might lead to escalation of protests into mass protests of the magnitude of 1988?

Bangkok Post Article September 21, 2007

ANALYSIS / BURMA : PUBLIC OUTRAGE OVER COST OF LIVING

A social volcano ready to erupt

For the first time in nearly 20 years, there have been sporadic but sustained public protests across Burma against rising food and fuel prices. And the ruling generals are getting nervous
By LARRY JAGAN

Political events in Burma have taken a sudden and surprising turn, with thousands of Buddhist monks demonstrating against the military regime in the past few days. These protest marches by the monks are likely to continue and grow, according to young monks in telephone interviews with foreign journalists based in Bangkok.

With the revered monks now joining the public protests against the government, Burma's political crisis is coming to a major crossroads, with the future of the ruling military junta now increasingly uncertain.

For the first time in nearly 20 years, there have been sporadic but sustained public protests in the streets of Rangoon and other provincial cities against the rising food and fuel prices.

events taken a turn, a turn of events - important events affect the direction of history

crossroads - an important point in history, a fork in the road

sporadic - not regularly or continuously, from time to time, occasionally

sustained - doing continually without stopping, persistent

But the government's usual response - a concerted crackdown on dissidents - is beginning to backfire and has especially angered many of the country's Buddhist clergy.

They have threatened to continue their protests this week against the violent treatment meted out to a group of them a little over a week ago.

This political cauldron is now threatening to boil over and the generals appear to be at a loss over what they should do. Their greatest fear now seems about to be unleashed: mass protests led by students and monks, similar to those which brought down the dictator General Ne Win in 1988.

concerted - working together, many different groups working together

crackdown - a move by the government to end some activity (for example, the police cracked down on crime)

dissidents - activists opposing government

backfire - fail

meted out to - punished

cauldron - a cooking pot (used by wicked witches)

boil over - water spilling out of a boiling pot

at a loss over - can't decide

International Response

At the same time international pressure on the junta to introduce political reform has increased in response to the brutal crackdown on the peaceful protesters. While the international community remained largely uninformed and unaware of the tragic events as they unfolded in Rangoon 19 years ago, this time they are extremely concerned and vocal. The UN secretary-general's special adviser, Ibrahim Gambari, plans to visit Burma within the next few weeks before reporting back to the UN General Assembly later next month.

The issue of Burma is also certain to be put back on the UN Security Council agenda in the next few weeks, according to diplomats in New York. This will force Burma to call on its friends, especially China, for support.

This time, though, their allies may be more cautious in their defence of the Burmese regime - and may demand concessions in return for their votes.

Last week China summoned Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win to Beijing where he met the senior Chinese state councillor Tang Jiaxuan at the headquarters of the Chinese government, Zhongnanhai. He was told in no uncertain terms that China could not tolerate an unstable Burma and feared that the protests were getting out of hand, according to Chinese diplomats. He strongly advised the Burmese government to treat the protests seriously and do nothing to endanger regional stability. The junta was also told to push forward with democratic reforms in order to ensure peace and stability.

Then, on the weekend, another senior diplomatic delegation was dispatched to Moscow to muster support for the Burmese military regime as it faces further pressure at the United Nations and another attempt to secure a Security Council resolution. Last time China and Russia used their vetoes to prevent it being passed.

concessions - do things in return for things they did for you

tolerate - accept (even though you don't like)

delegation - group of people travelling on official business, as official representatives

dispatched - officially sent off

muster - gather together

a resolution - a formal decision at a meeting arrived at by a vote

vetoes - blocking a resolution that has won a vote

National Constitutional Convention

All this is casting a long shadow over Burma's political future, with the junta increasing tentative in its plans. The key issue remains: how do the junta leaders intend to move forward with their proposed political reforms?

A watershed was reached earlier this month, when the National Convention ended its constitutional discussions - deliberations that took 14 years to conclude. The National Convention, which had been meeting intermittently since the beginning of 1993 to draw up a new charter, ended its last session with a document outlining the principles the junta has decided should be the basis of the new constitution. But clearly the guidelines endorsed by the 1,000 hand-picked members is intended to give the illusion of introducing democracy, while effectively leaving political power in the hands of the country's military rulers.

The next step in Burma's return to so-called democracy will be a referendum on the new constitution, after it has been formally drafted, probably some time next year, according to government sources. Elections would then be held in 2009.

At the closing session of the National Convention, acting Prime Minister General Thein Sein proudly presented the rough draft of the constitution - which is the recipe for what the regime regards as disciplined democracy - as a roaring success, ignoring the fact that the country's pro-democracy leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi who is currently under house arrest, and the numerous ethnic groups, have all been effectively shut out of the constitutional process.

Under the guidelines for the new charter, a quarter of the seats in parliament will be reserved for military appointees. The president must be a military man, while key ministries, including defence, will still be controlled by the military. The army would set its own budget without reference to the civilian government and the army commanders would retain the right to declare a state of emergency and seize power at any time they deemed necessary.

The charter also fails to meet the demands of the country's rebel ethnic groups, who have been demanding a measure of autonomy and cultural rights.

casts a long shadow over - will have a large but uncertain effect on the future

tentative - temporary

watershed - an important historical event that signals change (that signals the beginning of a new stage)

deliberations - discussion and debate about what to do

intermittently - occasionally not continuously, sporadically, from time to time

endorsed by - publicly approved by

hand-picked - each person specially chosen with great care

a referendum - a public vote to accept or reject

effectively - actually (but not officially or according to what is supposed to happen)

retain - keep

deemed - judged to be

a measure of - some

autonomy - governing themselves, rather than being governed by others

While the junta mulls over what it will do next, its brutal suppression of the recent protests against rising fuel and food prices reflects its strong distaste for real democratic reform. The authorities have arrested hundreds of people for organising and participating in small protest marches throughout Burma in the last few weeks. Several thousand pro-government vigilantes, armed with wooden batons and sticks have attacked the marchers in Rangoon and throughout the country, leaving them badly beaten.

Over the past few weeks sporadic, irregular public protests against soaring inflation have rocked the Burmese regime, since the government's sudden increase in fuel prices. Small peaceful protest marches are continuing to be staged in many parts of Burma, especially in the main commercial city, Rangoon. These demonstrations have spread to several other parts of the country.

mulls over - considers, thinks about

reflects - shows, demonstrates

distaste for - does not like

vigilantes - groups of ordinary people (not police) who try to enforce the law (like a "lynch mob" which hauls a criminal out of his or her jail cell and hangs them on the tree outside)

batons - wooden sticks for hitting people

sporadic - not regularly or continuously, from time to time, occasionally

rocked - shaken, disturbed, harmed

Monks Protest

In the most critical incident, nearly two weeks ago 100 monks took to the streets of Pakokku, a small town near Mandalay in central Burma. They were beaten by vigilantes, leaving several monks badly injured. The protest was eventually quelled when the security forces opened fire on them. The monks have since demanded an apology from the government for their mistreatment.

In many places throughout Burma, including Pakokku, the monks have refused to accept alms from soldiers. Although at present this is only happening in a few places within several key centres, including Mandalay, Moulmein, Pegu and Rangoon, observers believe it will snowball if the regime does not make some concessions to the monks, including an apology. The military's characteristic response has been to step up repression.

In an unprecedented move, police and security forces have been deployed outside the monasteries in the key Buddhist cities of Mandalay and Pakokku, as well as Rangoon to prevent the monks from getting involved in further protests. They issued appeals through the state-controlled media asking the monks and public not to come out into the streets.

Monasteries in many towns were shut down earlier this week and the monks, especially novice monks, were told to return to their homes. A key teaching university for monks in Rangoon has also been closed.

Hundreds of monks took to the streets in Rangoon, Pegu and Sittwe to demonstrate their anger at the military's actions on Tuesday - the anniversary of the military coup 19 years ago which brought the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to power, when it was then known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council.

The military also seized the most important temple in Rangoon, the Shwedagon Pagoda, to prevent the marching monks from entering the temple. It was closed to the public and occupied by hundreds of troops - reminiscent of the events of 1988.

quelled - stopped

snowball - get larger and larger and larger (like a snowball rolling down a hill picking up more snow as it rolls)

make concessions - do something to make up for their own bad behaviour

step up - increase activity

reminiscent of - reminds one of

Economic Mismanagement Might Escalate the Protests

Public protests are very rare in Burma as the military regime keeps a tight grip on the population. But the numbers joining these marches have grown since more than 100 people joined the first demonstration in mid-August, demanding that the government immediately lower fuel and food prices.

"The current protests are still economic for sure," said Khin Ohnmar, a leading Burmese activist based in Thailand with close links to the organisers of the protests.

"But everyone recognises that the root cause of the inflation is the junta's economic mismanagement."

Many activists are already drawing comparisons between the events of the last few weeks and the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 which forced the authoritarian leader Gen Ne Win to resign. Mass protests, involving students, civil servants, workers and monks brought the country to a standstill for months until the military brutally crushed the movement and seized power in a coup on Sept 18, 1988.

So far the signs are that while people are angry, they are not yet prepared to risk joining the protests. But there is no doubt a fury is bubbling away under the surface.

Rising rice prices would almost certainly be the last straw. And with the heavy rains and flooding in Burma's rice bowl, yields and supply will be substantially reduced compared to the last few years.

"A hungry man is an angry man," a Rangoon taxi driver told a foreign journalist recently.

"It's not human rights we are concerned about; we just want them [the military government] to stop treating us like animals," one of the protest organisers said.

Although public anger and the protest marchers are still only focusing on economic issues, it will inevitably turn political, according to Ms Khin Ohnmar.

"At the moment the movement is not talking about power at this stage. But by concentrating on what really concerns people in their daily lives, people will be encouraged to participate and that will eventually generate a momentum for real change. That's what happened in 1988," she said.

brought to a standstill - stopped
be the last straw - be the catalyst, be the last bad thing that finally created big protests
inevitably - will happen for sure, can't be prevented
generate momentum - go faster and faster, accelerate

Comparison with 1988 Protests

The dramatic events of August 1988 took months to evolve. It started, in fact, in late 1987 with demonetisation and the withdrawal of some currency notes, which wiped out people's savings overnight. The initial peaceful protest marches were suspended after the regime violently cracked down on them.

But some three months later the students initiated a fresh series of protests which grew into a mass movement by August. The involvement of the country's Buddhist monks proved critical at that time.

For the first time since the momentous events of 1988 brought down the country's dictator and his one-party rule, the Burmese military government is facing concerted public protests against its continued control of power. If the regime mishandles these small, sporadic protests they could easily escalate into demonstrations demanding the end of military rule.

"Burma is a social volcano ready to erupt," according to a leading Burmese businessman. "These price increases may just be the spark that ignites it."

demonetisation - money was declared not to be money any more (certain notes that people typically stored in theior house were declared to not be money anymore)
concerted - different groups working together
sporadic - not regularly or continuously, from time to time, occasionally

Answer Key:

1. What was the recent turn of events that took the ruling junta in Burma by surprise?

When monks joined the public protests of rising food and fuel prices.

2. When was the last time there were public protests of this size and magnitude in Burma?

Nearly 20 years ago in 1988.

3. Has the Burmese military government's usual response to public protests been effective this time?

No, despite the crackdown the monks have threatened to continue their crackdown.

The protests might well escalate into larger scale protests like the 1988 student led protests.

4. How might the recent protests allow for some outside influence by other countries?

China and Russia have supported Burma in the past on the UN Security Council.
This gives them some power to demand change (negotiating leverage) with the Burmese government in exchange for further support at the UN.

5. How long has the National Convention been deliberating?

14 years. Since the beginning of 1993.

6. What was the final product of the National Convention's deliberations?

A rough draft of a constitution.

7. When is "democracy" in Burma scheduled to begin?

In 2009 if the constitution passes the scheduled referendum.

8. What kind of "democracy" will Burma have under the draft constitution?

a. 25% of parliament military appointed
b. President from the military
c. Key ministries controlled by military
d. Military budget separate and set by military.
e. Military has right to declare state of emergency and seize power at any time.
f. No special autonomy or rights for ethnic minorities.

9. What were the events that started the protests?

Fuel price increases led to soaring inflation.

10. Where are the protests happening?

The protests began in yangon but have spread to the provinces.

11. How has the government sought to end the protests?

a. By arresting people who organised or participated in protests.
b. By mobilising vigilante gangs to to beat protesters with sticks.

12. When and where did monks start participating in the protests?

Two weeks ago, nearly 100 monks joined the protests in the small town of Pokokku in Upper Burma. From there, the monk protests spread throughout Burma.
In some places (Mandalay, Moulmein, Pegu and Rangoon) monks have refused to receive alms from soldiers.

13. How has the government cracked down on the monk protests?

a. Monks were beaten.
b. Soldiers opened fire on monks.
c. Soldiers have been deployed outside monasteries in Mandalay and Pokokku.
d. Appeals through state controlled media to end protests.
e. Shutting down monasteries and sending monks home.
f. Closing universities for monks.
g. The important Shwedagon Pagoda is under military occupation to prevent the monks from entering.