Goodbye USA, hello China, in Thailand and Southeast Asia?
By Jon Fernquest |
With US foreign policy bogged down in the Middle East for the foreseeable future, many have noticed that Asia has been largely neglected by the US recently.
US neglect has allowed China's influence to increase in Southeast Asia.
The failure of the US and Europe to get disaster relief into Burma after the recent cyclone is one glaring example of lack of influence. (Read Burma activist Zarni's assessment of China's role in The Irrawaddy magazine).
This weekend's Perspective section of the Bangkok Post featured an international relations op-ed piece by Ellen L. Frost at YaleGlobal Online.
This is a difficult advanced level reading piece, typical university level reading material in the United States and Europe. Today's article is full of difficult words and formal language. The article also discusses issues in very indirect figurative ways.
bogged down - delayed, no progress od advances being made
for the foreseeable future - will continue to happen for a long time
neglect - fail to do or do carefully
largely neglected - has mostly failed to do carefully
influence - the power to make people do what you want
glaring - very bright and easy to see
lack of influence - not able to make people do what you want
international relations - the academic and policy field that studies relations between states and global issues (See Wikipedia)
an op-ed piece - an article expressing an opinion about the news, often with in-depth analysis, not just straight description of what happened
figurative - language used to provide a more abstract or imaginative meaning than the literal meaning
literal meaning - langauge understood in the simplest way possible
Here is the article in full:
Designing Asia
Chinese-led integration of East Asia spurs an economic boom and diminishes US role in the region, writes ELLEN L. FROST25-05-2008
Washington, DC - Although the balance of power in Asia is stable, the balance of influence is shifting in favour of China.
China has become the number-one or number-two trading partner of virtually every country in the region. Seeking strength in numbers, Southeast Asian governments strive not only to tap into China's new wealth, but also to embed Beijing in a thicket of organisations and dialogues in the name of community-building and closer integration. Despite the significance of these changes in Asia's strategic landscape, for many years now US attention has fixated on the Middle East. High-ranking US officials are preoccupied with Islamist terrorists, the war in Iraq and recent developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since Asia is stable and peaceful, the president and his top aides pay little or no attention to regional diplomacy in Asia. Only in the last year of the Bush administration, for instance, was an ambassador appointed to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). The consequence of this high-level neglect is a widespread perception that the US has lost interest in Asia, especially Southeast Asia, at a time when Chinese influence is growing. Although the US still fields a powerful military force, this trend is fuelling - some would say, restoring - China-centred hierarchy. The question is whether this emerging regional order undermines the autonomy of Asian governments and threatens US interests.
integration - bring together, closely linking all parts of a system
spurs an economic boom - causes a jump in economic activity and wealth
balance of power - evenly matched military forces that avoid conflict for fear of losing (See Wikipedia)
influence - the power to make people do what you want
balance of influence - when the influence of countries outside the region (China, US, India) is balanced
in favour of Y - want Y, Support Y, feel that Y is right
a trading partner of Y - a country that country Y trades goods with
virtually every - almost every
strength in numbers - strong because there are many
strive - make great effort to achieve
tap into - use
embed X in Y - the put X in Y firmly
a thicket - many small trees and bushes growing close together
a dialogue - discussions between two sides to solve a problem and reach an agreement
integration - bring together, closely linking all parts of a system
closer integration - bringing more closely together
the strategic landscape - the situation faced when making planning strategy
strategy - long term plans for competing
attention has fixated on - thinking about this and nothing else
preoccupied with - thinking about only this (and not other important things)
aides - helpers
neglect - fail to do or do carefully
a perception - a way of thinking about something
a hierarchy - a system for organising with many levels, some high some low, like a big tree
emerging regional order undermines the autonomy of Asian governments -
interests - an advantage or benefit
threatens US interests - threatens the benefits and advantages the US currently has
Conscious of residual wariness, Chinese leaders go out of their way to reassure their Asian neighbours that Chinese intentions are entirely peaceful. Unlike Washington, China has projected a sympathetic and listening attitude, offering aid and trade deals without immediately demanding anything in return. Beijing has settled virtually all of its land-based disputes and put its maritime territorial disputes in the East and South China seas on the back burner.
The subtle risk posed by the shifting balance of influence is that in the absence of constructive engagement on the part of the US, Washington's voice will gradually lose resonance compared to Beijing's. Other Asians already conform to China's wishes when it comes to the status of Taiwan, visits from the Dalai Lama and proposed Japanese membership on the UN Security Council. None of these issues are vital to them, but all stir up core Chinese feelings and threaten - at least symbolically - China's perceived vital interests.
On less volatile issues, China's leverage is implicit. If the US were to largely relinquish its role in Asia, China's new influence would likely tilt the outcome of negotiations on trade, investment, the treatment of Chinese firms, energy, climate change, maritime territorial disputes, security relationships, votes in the UN and other international bodies and other issues more heavily in China's favour.
conscious of - know about
residual - remaining, left over
wariness - when you worry that doing something might cause a problem, so you are very careful
reassure - make someone fell less worried about something
go out of their way - do much more than you usually do (to make sure something gets done properly)
go out of their way to reassure - tried hard to reassure
intentions - what you are planning to do
intentions are entirely peaceful -
projected a sympathetic and listening attitude - tried to make the person they were talkign with feel that he was sympathetic and listening
virtually all - almost all
subtle - not immediately noticeable or obvious
risk posed by Y - danger or possibility of something bad happening created by Y
constructive - helpful and useful
engagement - involvement between two groups (leads to shared interests, resolution of tensions and disputes)
Washington's voice will gradually lose resonance - what the US thinks should be done will not be heard
conform to - follow and obey a rule or law
China's perceived vital interests - the issues that China's believes are important for China
volatile issues - issues that can suddenly change and danger
leverage - ability to control situations and people, control what happens (See glossary)
implicit - not stated directly (but can be understood and inferred from what is being said)
relinquish - give up (no longer have or own)
tilt the outcome of negotiations - help determine the agreement reached in negotiations
Positive aspects
The competition for influence is by no means zero-sum and has many positive aspects. But Beijing's long-term behaviour, intentions and identity are unknown. If China's political system softens into more open, predictable and participatory governance based on the rule of law - something like Singapore's authoritarian capitalism - Chinese goals, values and interests are likely to be largely congruent with those of the US and its friends and allies in Asia. If not, some degree of tension will remain.
Realistically, the US president and his top appointees will not have much time for sustained regional diplomacy anywhere outside the Middle East until the next administration scales down US forces significantly in Iraq. Small steps are possible, however. They include scheduling more high-level visits, signing the Asean's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), revitalising US participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (Apec), actively supporting the Asian integration movement instead of merely tolerating it, and devoting significantly more resources to regional health and education.
Signing the TAC would be a particularly appropriate step because it would symbolise US commitment to non-interference, territorial sovereignty, the peaceful resolution of disputes and other values cherished by Southeast Asian leaders, most of whom are still seeking to consolidate post-colonial nation-building and autonomy. China was the first non-Asean power to sign the TAC. All others in the region have since followed suit, including Australia, a key US ally.
influence - the power to make people do what you want
competition for influence - when two sides compete for the power over the decisions of others
zero-sum - when one person's gain must be another person's loss (the opposite of "win-win" in which both can gain)
open - details made public for discussion
predictable - happens in the way that you expect
participatory governance - when the people who are governed are involved in making decisions
rule of law - the principle that no one is above the law, the principle that governmental authority is legitimately exercised only in accordance with written, publicly disclosed laws adopted and enforced in accordance with established procedural steps (See Wikipedia)
congruent with - (very formal) similar to
tension - bad feelings and possible conflict between two sides disagreeing
scales down US forces - reduces the number of US soldiers and weapons
Asean's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) - a treaty that ASEAN has signed with most of its neighbors that requires countries not to use violence against member countries (See Wikipedia)
revitalising - adding energy and life, once again
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (Apec) - a forum of the 21 pacific rim (Asia, US, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, etc) countries to discuss the regional economy, cooperation, trade and investment (See Wikipedia)
integration - bring together, closely linking all parts of a system
Asian integration movement - the political movement to bring together the economies of Asian countries
tolerating - accepting something you don't approve of, without becoming angry
interfere - get involved in a situation that you shouldn't
commitment to non-interference - a promise not to interfere
peaceful resolution of disputes - ending disagreements peacefully, without violent conflict
consolidate - to join together and make stronger
autonomy - the power to make your own decisions, and not be controlled by outsiders
consolidate post-colonial nation-building and autonomy -
Meanwhile, what can Asians do to strengthen their position as a region - and to recapture constructive, high-level US attention?
In my book, Asia's New Regionalism, I argue that we are witnessing the resurgence of a pre-colonial Maritime Asia - the sweep of coastal communities, port cities and towns, and waterways connecting Northeast and Southeast Asia, India and now Australia. Maritime Asia is the locus of Asian wealth and power. It is where 60 to 70 percent of Asians live, the biggest cities are and globalisation-driven investment is concentrated. The world's six largest ports are all Asian.
To take better advantage of this asset, Asian governments should explicitly build Maritime Asia into their vision of integration and work with local officials, business representatives and civil-society groups to remove barriers impeding its natural flow. These include border taxes, tariffs, corruption, and restrictions on labor mobility. For example, Asian governments should extend and develop a legal framework for Asean's Single Window programme, which aims at limiting the cargo clearance of container ships at any major port to one 30-minute stop and validating it for the entire region.
To protect this asset, Asian governments need to become far more active in global efforts to stem climate change. Unrestrained global warming could flood or partially submerge coastal zones and major maritime cities such as Mumbai, Singapore and Hong Kong as well as the numerous islands dotting the region.
As long as China's economic development remains vigorous, Chinese influence will continue to rise. This is a fact of life that other Asians have accepted; the US must accept it as well. Closer cooperation within the wider Asian community, combined with renewed US engagement, can help ensure that China's new influence is exercised in a way that conforms to regional norms, enables other Asian governments to retain their sovereignty and permits Asian companies to compete effectively in the global economy.
pre-colonial Maritime Asia - Asia before the British, Dutch, and Portuguese arrived and influenced trade and turned many Asian states into colonies
locus of Y - where something exists
locus of Asian wealth and power - where Asian wealth and power exists
concentrated - grouped together at a place, most is located at this place
civil-society - Non-governmental Organisations (NGOs) that look after people and their rights
impeding - blocking, preventing action or flow
clearance - official permission to enter the country (after an inspection)
container ships - ships that carry large truck containers of goods (See Wikipedia)
cargo clearance of container ships - checking the goods on the
stem - reduce or stop completely
numerous islands dotting the region - many islands in many different places (look like little dots)
vigorous - full of energy
development remains vigorous - development still has a lot of energy
a fact of life - an unpleasant fact about life that all must accept (for example: old age, sickness, and death)
a norm - a way of behaving considered normal in a society
conform to a norm - follow a norm
Ellen L. Frost is a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and adjunct research fellow at the National Defense University. Reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online www.yaleglobal.yale.edu. (c) 2008 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization.
(Source: Bangkok Post, perspective section, 25-05-08, page P8, Ellen L. Frost, link)
