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[Thai Economics Library | Archives| Currency Crisis 2007| Entrepreneurs]
October 03, 2007

Keep buying Burmese natural gas after violence against Buddhist monks?

By Jon Fernquest

[Introduction|Article]
[Reading Questions|Answers]


Most people are probably not aware of how closely tied Thailand and Burma are economically.

They are also probably not aware that natural gas lies at the root of this mutual interdependence. As the New York Times noted yesterday:

"Last year, Myanmar sold $2 billion worth of gas to Thailand, which amounted to more than 40 percent of the country's total exports for that year. Largely because of the gas deal, Thailand is Myanmar's biggest trade partner, not China, as is widely reported." (Source: New York Times)
Singapore is not far behind:
"For the 2006-7 financial year ended in March, Singapore was listed by Burma’s Ministry of Commerce as the third-largest trading partner behind Thailand and China, with bilateral trade for the year totaling $1.21 billion." (Source: Irrawaddy)
Beating Buddhist monks, imprisonment of monks, or even possible mass murder of Buddhist monks [See London Times: "If I shot monks I'd go to Hell, says major who fled"] may not necessarily lead to cutting business ties with the Burmese junta. As the oft-repeated dictum runs, business must be separated from politics.

Despite the great chasm that exists between Burma and Thailand in terms of language, wealth, and openness to the world, the two countries still have two important things in common:


1. A common and ancient Buddhist heritage
2. Thailand's economic dependence on Burmese natural gas

Whereas Thailand and Burma have separate Sanghas (organisations of monks), there is one international market for natural gas.

The ASEAN pledge of non-interference in Burmese politics perhaps means non-interference in religious affairs, no matter to what degree Buddhist monks are persecuted, imprisoned, and perhaps even murdered.

The UN issued a demand for a full accounting of the missing monks today but, as it was after the 1988 protests, it may be a long time before the world knows the full story. (See Bloomberg; Bangkok Post, 3-10-07 9, 5)

Consider the following questions:

1. It's a free market so if we don't buy the energy resources than someone else will. (Is this a legitimate position to take?)

2. Will economic sanctions by the US work if everyone does not go along with them?

3. How much should a country be willing to sacrifice to achieve a political end?

4. Should the United States boycott the Chinese Olympics to pressure China into doing something about Burma's situation? (Protests in front of the Chinese embassy in San Francisco called for this)

5. Should Thailand stop purchasing Burmese natural gas?

Vocabulary:


mutual - shared, involving two people or countries

interdependence - when a group of people depend on each other

chasm - great differences (a deep crack in a rock or ice)

openness - everything public, with no secrets, nothing hidden

have in common -

oft - often

dictum - a formal statement with authority

pledge - a serious promise to do something

non-interference - not involving yourself in other peoples' affairs (minding your own business)

persecuted - treated cruelly and unfairly


Reading Questions

Here are some questions to guide your reading (See answers at end):

1. What conditions are necessary for Thai negotiations with Burma over natural gas purchases to move forwards?

2. What is the most important factor in natural gas deals with Burma, according to Dr Piyasvasti?

3. Why are natural gas exports important for the Burmese government?

4. Will countries like Burma that have a secure natural gas supply from Burma continue to have this supply over the long-term? Why?

5. Why is the Burmese government building a natural gas pipeline to Rangoon?

6. How is it going to finance the building of this pipeline?

7. How much does Burma earn from its natural gas sales to Thailand per year?

8. Who transports natural gas to Thailand?

9. What exploration for natural gas resources in Burma are Thai companies currently undertaking?

10. Have these exploration efforts been successful so far?
(Use inference)

11. What other countries have oil and gas companies operating in Burma?


Bangkok Post Article March 28, 2007

ENERGY & POLITICS CROSS-BORDER NEGOTIATIONS

Burma crisis delays natural gas talks

Deal under threat if leadership changes
YUTHANA PRAIWAN

The crisis in Burma may delay an opportunity for the country to wrap up a deal to sell more natural gas to Thailand, according to Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand.

The Burmese government last week sent a message to Dr Piyasvasti indicating that it wanted to begin negotiations on natural gas purchases from M9 offshore exploration block by the end of the year.

But the crisis in Burma has put the deal on hold.

Under the government-to-government scheme, he added, Thailand could not risk making large deals when the Burmese regime faces serious trouble.

wrap up - finish
offshore - not on land, in the sea
put the deal on hold - temporarily stop the deal
scheme - arrangement, business deal

Negotiations delayed until situation stabilises

Burma has been rocked by mass protests with tens of thousands of monks and civilians taking to the streets. The military has begin cracking down on the protests, often using violent and lethal force.

The negotiations would be delayed until the situation in Burma stabilises. The talks have not yet started because the Thai government needs to see completed exploration results before the deal is finalised.

"We don't know whether the situation in Burma may lead to a change in the government. ... The conflict is very extreme and it could change if the new leaders to oppose anything the former leader has done," Dr Piyasvasti said.

Nonetheless, he stressed that the intention of Thailand to secure natural gas supplies from Burma would be unchanged, but it needed to ensure that any deal would be secure.

rocked by - affected greatly by
situation stabilises - no more protests, country becomes quiet
negotiations move forwards - both sides make compromises to get nearer to a final deal
intention - what you plan to do

Despite the postponement, he was confident that Thailand and Burma would continue to negotiate until a final agreement is forged.

"In the long term, I believe that Burma will continue to distribute its rich natural gas supplies to neighbouring countries, due to the fact that the major source of revenue for the Burmese government's fiscal budget is from natural gas," he said.

The Burmese government also requires additional income to finance its gas pipeline from the M9 offshore field to Rangoon as it would be used generate electricity to serve the city, replacing a deteriorating existing gas pipeline.

Burma earns a sales revenue from its natural gas supplies to Thailand of about US$160 million a month.

postponement - delay for the future
forge an agreement - create an agreement3/10/2550
a fiscal budget - the yearly budget

PTT Exploration for Natural Gas in Burma

All of the natural gas from Burma runs through PTT Exploration and Production Plc, a subsidiary of PTT Plc, which has licenses for exploration of the Block M7 and M9 natural gas fields. Both fields are being explored.

In the second quarter, PTTEP finished drilling five appraisal wells in Block M9 in the Gulf of Martaban off Burma in the Andaman Sea and discovered natural gas in all five.

Four more exploration and appraisal wells would be drilled in another exploration area from December this year to April 2008 to affirm the gas potential of M9.

The Burmese government and PTTEP estimate that Block M9 would produce 300 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) by 2011.

Thailand extracts 1,100 mmcfd, one-third of domestic gas demand, from Blocks M5 and M6 in the Yadana field. The field is operated by Total of France. Blocks M12 and M14 in the Yetagun field are being explored by Malaysia's Petronas.

appraisal - evaluation, assessment, checking
affirm - check to see if it exists
potential - may possibly exist
cubic feet - measurement of volume

Answer Key:

1. What conditions are necessary for Thai negotiations with Burma over natural gas purchases to move forwards?

a. The situation in Burma stabilises.
b. The Thai government needs to see completed exploration results.

2. What is the most important factor in natural gas deals with Burma, according to Dr Piyasvasti?

That any deal be "secure" meaning that if the military junta fell then the contract would still be valid.

3. Why are natural gas exports important for the Burmese government?

Natural gas sales are the major source for government's revenue in Burma.

4. Will countries like Burma that have a secure natural gas supply from Burma continue to have this supply over the long-term? Why?

Yes, according to Dr. Piyasvasti, because the Burmese government needs the money for its fiscal budget.

5. Why is the Burmese government building a natural gas pipeline to Rangoon?

To generate electricity for the city.

6. How is it going to finance the building of this pipeline?

Income from natural gas sales.

7. How much does Burma earn from its natural gas sales to Thailand per year?

$1.92 million or roughly $2 billion.

8. Who transports natural gas to Thailand?

The Thai oil and gas company PTT.

9. What exploration for natural gas resources in Burma are Thai companies currently undertaking?

They are drilling for oil in the Gulf of Martaban and the Andaman sea.

10. Have these exploration efforts been successful so far?
(Use inference)

Apparently, because natural gas was discovered in all five appraisal wells that have been drilled so far.

11. What other countries have oil and gas companies operating in Burma?

France's Total and Malaysia's Petronas are both operating there.


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