Reading the polls
Throughout
this campaign period, you have certainly seen the results of many
opinion surveys known as “polls”.
Each is like a photograph of a certain part of public opinion at a
particular time. Like photographs, some polls will give us a truer
picture of reality than others. To read and understand them, it will be
necessary for you to understand some of the principles of good polling.Many people are suspicious of polls in general. Some polls, they fear, are designed mainly to sway undecided voters by reporting inaccurate results. The year, voters have been warned about bogus polls several times.
People also wonder how the opinions of a few hundred or even a few thousand people can truly represent the opinions of the tens of thousands of others who were not polled. At the beginning of this campaign, one party leader, unhappy over his party’s poor results in the early polls, claimed that a poll here in Thailand would have to survey the opinions of 700,000 people to be accurate
He is wrong, of course. Actually, the number of people questioned (the size of the sample) is not a major problem. A carefully designed survey of less than 1,000 people can, for example, quite accurately reflect the opinions of a country as big as the United States if is properly carried out.
poll – an occasion when a lot of people are asked about what they feel about something – การสำรวจความคิดเห็น
polling – the act of carrying out a poll, i.e., asking people what they feel about something — สำรวจความคิดเห็น
suspicious – a feeling that someone or something cannot be trusted — มีความสงสัย, ด้วยความสงสัย, สงสัย, พิรุธ
sway – to influence or change someone’s opinion — ทำให้โอนเอียง, โน้มน้าว, จูงใจ
bogus – not real, although pretending to be real — ปลอม, เทียม
sample – a group of people who are used for getting information about a larger group or about the whole population — กลุ่มตัวอย่าง
Key factors
Here are some of the key factors that professional pollsters must consider if they want to conduct an accurate survey of voter opinions. And they are also factors you should consider in evaluating their results.1. Polls must be representative, i.e., they must include the opinions from people of all parts of the community being surveyed.
2. Respondents must be chosen randomly. Ideally, every member of the group to be sampled should have the same chance of being chosen. If there is any bias — intended or unintended — it can affect the results.
3. Polls surveying voter opinions should be based on information obtained from people who are most likely to vote. Even a perfectly random, representative survey of people in a community may not tell us much about voter opinions if it includes significant numbers of non-voters.
4. Special attention must be given to the questions asked during the survey. Questions must be clear enough so that all the respondents will understand them in the same way. They must also avoid language that might be interpreted negatively by some parts of the population and not by others
5. In reporting their results, pollsters should explain their methods (the size and representativeness of their sample, the margin of error, etc.) and any factors that might possibly lessen the poll's reliability.
6. Pollsters should be very careful not to claim that their results have more significance than than their data allows. A survey conducted in Bangkok, for example, will tell us little or nothing about what voters are thinking in Yala or Nakorn Phanom. And that same Bangkok survey conducted in late October may tell us very little about what voters will actually do on December 23.
On Election Day, you will see another type of poll which has tended to become more and more popular in recent years. This is the "exit poll" which is conducted at polling stations around the country. In an exit poll, interviewers ask voters how they actually voted. The interview results are then sent to central computers and the results can be made public within minutes of the closing of the polling stations. The results can be quite accurate predictions of the final results — if proper polling procedures are carried out.
pollster – a person or organisation that prepares and carries out a poll — ผู้/นักสำรวจความคิดเห็น
conduct – to do something in an organised way; to carry out — ลงมือทำ, ดำเนิน, ปฏิบัติ
evaluating – thinking carefully about something before making a judgment about its value, importance or quality — ประเมินผล, ประเมินค่า, ตีราคา, ตีค่า
representative – typical of people or things in a group – ตัวแทน, กลุ่มตัวอย่าง, ผู้แทน
respondent – someone who answers questions — ผู้ตอบคำถาม/แบบสำรวจ
randomly – chosen without any particular pattern — สุ่ม
ideally – in the best possible way — ดีเลิศ, ดีที่สุด, ในอุดมคติ
bias – an attitude that you have that makes you treat someone or something in a way that if unfair — อคติ, ลำเอียง, เดียดฉันท์
interpreted – understood in a particular way — ตีความ, แปลความหมาย
margin of error – the amount by which a number or calculation may be different form the correct one without causing a problem — ความผิดพลาดคลาดเคลื่อน, เปอร์เซ็นต์ความคลาดเคลื่อน
reliability – the condition of being accurate and able to trusted; in statistics, the degree to which the measure is consistent, that is, repeated measurements would give the same result.— ความน่าเชื่อถือ
exit poll – a poll taken at or near polling stations questioning voters about how they voted — การสำรวจความคิดเห็นจากประชาชนที่เพิ่งลงคะแนนเสร็จสดๆ ร้อนๆ
So, what’ s going to happen December 23?
While it is probably foolish to speculate on the outcome of Sunday’s general election, a lot of people have been doing just that. Most analysts believe that some kind of coalition is a foregone conclusion. For a long time, the assumption has been that the Democrats would lead such a coalition since the military and the interim government would do everything possible to prevent the PPP from forming a government.Fixing an election is not an easy thing to do, however. The so-called “old power clique” has been far more resilient than expected and, if the polls are to be believed, the PPP is likely to edge out the Democrats for the top spot. This raises the prospect of the 72-year-old Samak Sundaravej becoming the next prime minister.
Or perhaps not. Mr Samak is considered by many to be a divisive, abrasive figure, not the type of person required to bring about the unity and reconciliation His Majesty the King called for during his recent speeches. Potential coalition partners for the PPP will certainly have this in mind. Is it possible that the next prime minister might come from a mid-size party – someone like former prime minister Banharn Silpa-archa or Suvit Khunkitti – as part of a deal to form the next government?
What ever the composition of the coalition, many analysts believe it will be fractious and relatively short-lived, lasting only a year or two. There will be too many parties involved and too many factions within parties to allow things to run smoothly. Forming a cabinet alone is likely to be a major headache.
There is another option, however, one proposed by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra earlier this month. Speaking from Hong Kong, Mr Thaksin called for a national unity government to rule for two years before holding a new, truly-democratic election. His proposal was immediately dismissed by Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as premature, but if the post-election formation of a new government is messy, it might end up receiving serious consideration.
speculate – to consider or discuss what might happen คาดการณ์ อนุมาน
foregone conclusion – a result that you can be certain about before it happens ผลล่วงหน้า
assumption – something that you consider likely to be true even though you have no proof ข้อสันนิษฐาน
interim government – a government that is intended to last only a short time until a permanent government is chosen รัฐบาลรักษาการณ์
fixing – dishonestly arranging something so that it has the result you want ใช้วิธีการอันมิชอบ, เล่ห์เหลี่ยมเข้าคุม
resilient – able to quickly become strong, healthy or happy again after a problem, disappointment or illness คืนสู่สภาพเดิม
edge out – to beat someone in an election or a competition by a small amount เฉือนชนะ ชนะอย่างหวุดหวิด
prospect – the possibility that something we happen ความคาดหวัง ความหวังข้างหน้า อนาคต
divisive – likely to cause arguments between people อันจะก่อให้เกิดความแตกแยก
abrasive – behaving in a way that seems rude to people because you say what you think even if it is not nice หยาบคาย กระด้าง หยาบกระด้าง ระคายหู
reconciliation – the process of creating a new and friendly relationship again with someone you argued with or fought with การปรองดอง
composition – the way that something is formed form separate parts of people การรวมตัวกัน การประกอบเข้าด้วยกัน
fractious – causing problems and difficult to control มีปัญหา ไม่ราบรื่น
option – choice ตัวเลือก
dismissed – considered something to be unimportant or not good enough to be taken seriously แย้งกลับ โต้กลับ
premature – happening too soon เร็วเกินไป