Campaign 2007
It is safe to say that virtually no one expects any single party to win a majority of the seats in the new parliament. Thus, the two strongest parties – the Democrats and the PPP – are vying to garner the biggest bloc of seats for the right to try to lead the coalition government that will emerge after the election. The other parties are desperately trying to win enough seats to be considered suitable coalition partners.
Both major parties have strengths and liabilities. As the successor to the Thai Rak Thai party, the PPP is loaded with former MPs (or relatives of former MPs) from that party which won a landslide victory in 2001. The PPP is pledging to continue and enhance the populist policies of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. In the party’s campaign posters here in Bangkok, the party boasts that its platform contains more than idle promises. The TRT, it reminds voters, was the first party to really fulfill its campaign promises, a message that seems to resonate with the rural and urban poor. The problem, of course, is that Mr Thaksin and his followers face fierce opposition from political opponents, activists and, of course, those who ousted the former PM. All see the “old power clique” as being incurably corrupt and anti-democratic.
The Democrats have no such problem with their young leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. As Thailand’s oldest political party, they have a formidable contingent of candidates and stand a good chance of forming a government, even if they win fewer seats than the PPP since they could have an easier time finding willing coalition partners. But the Democrats have their own problems. They are seen by many as being too close to the coup-makers and Mr Abhisit is perceived by some as being too young and inexperienced to be prime minister – a point that Mr Samak is happy to make at every campaign stop.
For a time, there were rumours about secret pre-election alliances between several parties (the Democrats, Chart Thai and Puea Pandin for example), but now it looks that each party is going its own way for the time being.
bloc – a group of people, countries, etc. who work closely together กลุ่ม
emerge – to start to exist; to appear เกิดขึ้น
desperately – feeling or showing that you have little hope and are ready to do anything without worrying about danger to yourself or others ทิ้งไพ่ตาย อย่างสุดชีวิต อย่างเอาเป็นเอาตาย
liabilities – people or things that cause you a lot of problems ข้อเสียเปรียบ สิ่งที่ไม่เอื้อประโยชน์
successor – a person or thing that comes after someone or something and takes their/its place ผู้สืบทอด, ดำรงตำแหน่งต่อ
loaded – full of เต็มไปด้วย
landslide – of an election in which one person or party gets very many more votes than the other people or parties ชนะอย่างท่วมท้น, ฟ้าถล่มดินทลาย
enhance – to increase or further improve the good quality, value or status of someone/something เสริม ยกระดับ เพิ่มทวี
boast – to proudly tell other people what you can do
idle promises – promises that are not serious or likely to be kept สัญญาลอยๆ
resonate with – to be similar to what someone thinks or believes ตรงใจ โดนใจ
clique – a small group of people who spend their time together and do not allow others to join them กลุ่ม สมัครพรรคพวก
incurably – unable to be changed เยียวยาไม่ได้ สุดจะเยียวยา
formidable – impressive or powerful พิชิตยาก น่าเกรงขาม
contingent – a group of people who have something in common คณะ
perceived – thought of or understood in a particular way ได้รับการมองว่า
rumour – a piece of information, or a story, that people talk about, but that may not be true ข่าวลือ
alliance – a group of people, political parties, etc. who work together in order to achieve something that they all want พันธมิตร
As in the past, none of Thailand’s political parties can claim to be truly national parties. The leading parties will end up thanking voters in one or two regions for providing them with the majority of their seats.
The South
The South has traditionally been Democrat turf and that will almost certainly be the case once again. The restive deep South, however, with its majority Muslim population could be very competitive.The Northeast
In the last general election, voters in Thailand’s Northeast voted overwhelmingly in support of former Thaksin Shinawatra’s now-defunct TRT party. They were clearly unhappy when Mr Thaksin was removed in last year’s coup. In what analysts say was an obvious repudiation of the Sept, 2006 coup, voters in all but two of the 19 northeast provinces rejected the draft charter in the referendum held earlier this year by a wide margin.The biggest beneficiary of this anti-coup anger will almost certainly be the PPP whose candidates should win a large proportion of the seats up for grabs in the region. The PPP will meet stiff opposition in some areas, however, particularly from Puea Pandin and Ruamjai Thai Chart Pattana, both of whom have the backing of some influential former TRT leaders.
The North
The PPP is certain to be a potent force here in the home region of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. This is particularly true in the upper North where PPP clean sweeps are possible in several provinces. The lower North could be more competitive.Central Thailand
The central region could be the most hotly-contested region of all with a large number of parties having a reasonable chance of winning seats. Chart Thai is certain to do well in its strongholds in Suphanburi and the surrounding provinces. The Democrats will pick up seats throughout much of the region as will the PPP. Voters remain largely uncommitted, however, and there could be many surprises on election day.Bangkok
The Democrats began the campaign by announcing that they are setting their sights on winning at least 26 of Bangkok’s 36 seats. That is starting to look a bit too optimistic, especially since Bangkok has long been a stronghold of sorts for PPP leader and former Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej. Current Bangkok governor Apirak Kosayodhin is a Democrat, however, so that should work in favour of his party. All in all, it looks like Bangkok will be one big horse race.The East
In the East, you really have to look province by province. In Rayong, for example, the industrial estates have many workers from the North and Northeast who, like their compatriots back home, will probably favour the PPP. In Sa Kaew, however, Sanoh Thiengthong and his clan will fight hard to retain their traditional dominance over local politics. One interesting race will be in Chachoengsao, where politicians associated with former TRT politicians will face off against each other. Elsewhere Chart Thai is expected to do well.traditionally – of a custom, a way of life or a way of doing things that has not changed for a long time ตามธรรมเนียม, ประเพณี ดั้งเดิม ตามที่ปฏิบัติกันมา
turf – a place or area that someone thinks of as being their own เขต ฐาน
restive – (of a group of people) impatient or becoming difficult to control because they are dissatisfied วุ่นวาย ไม่สงบ ควบคุมยาก ดื้อรั้น หัวแข็ง
competitive – having a high level of close competition แข่งขันสูง
overwhelmingly – by a very large amount or margin อย่างท่วมท้น
defunct – no longer existing, operating or being used ถูกยุบ
repudiation – refusing to accept การปฏิเสธ การลบล้าง
draft charter – a constitution that has not yet been officially accepted ร่างรัฐธรรมนูญ
referendum – an occasion when all the people of a country can vote on an important issue การลงประชามติ
margin – the number of votes by which someone wins an election จำนวนคะแนน
beneficiary – a person who gains as the result of something ผู้ได้รับผลประโยชน์
proportion – part or share of a whole สัดส่วน
stiff opposition – strong competition การต่อต้านอย่างแข็งขัน
potent – powerful ทรงพลัง มีอิทธิพล
hotly contested – involving strong and close competition แข่งขันกันอย่างเผ็ดร้อน
uncommitted – not having given or promised support to a particular person, group, belief, action, etc. ยังไม่แสดงท่าที, ทุ่มตัว
setting their sights on – having as a goal
optimistic – expecting good things to happen or to be successful มองโลกในแง่ดี
setting their sights on - having as a goal
compatriots – people who are from the same place as someone else เพื่อนร่วมภาคเดียวกัน
clan – a very large family a group of families who are related to each other ตระกูล
dominance – control มีอำนาจเหนือ ครอบคลุม ควบคุม
face off – to get ready to compete with someone เตรียมแข่งขันกัน